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In contrast to sluggish1 home sales in many large cities at the beginning of 2012, the final weeks of 2012 seems to be a feast for the property market. In Shanghai and Shenzhen, developers claim that their properties are sold out as soon as the booking period begins. However, some property buyers are suspicious about this.
According to figures from the National Bureau of Statistics, 53 out of a statistical2 pool of 70 major cities in November recorded higher new home prices than a month earlier. This was up from 35 in October.
But Luo Yinshen, a regional analyst3 with 21st Century Real Property, says the property market is not as flourishing as it seems.
"Currently, the phenomenon of 'sold-out-in-one-day property' has caused a certain panic among the public. I think it's possibly due to some property developers' deliberately4 hoarding5 property. The speculation6 may continue for a period of time."
The property market in 2012 experienced a downturn after a series of policy adjustments by the central government to curb7 the over-speculation trend.
Despite a slight rebound8 in July, the property market didn't see much of an increase in sales during the traditional golden season in September and October. But prices in general continued to rise.
Ren Xingzhou, Director of the Market Economy Research Institute of the Development Research Center of the State Council, says several factors are behind the current boom in the property market.
"On the one hand, after two years' of market adjustments, we have accumulated some rigid9 demand. This year, a series of policies was issued to support these demands, such as the lowering of interest rates for consumers who wanted to buy their first home. Now we are seeing the results. On the other hand, the supply of apartment units increased to a certain level at the end of the year. In addition, property developers, especially some big ones, have met their sales goals. That's why they don't need to offer sales promotions10."
Still, Luo Yinshen believes the macroeconomic environment will remain tight for the real estate market.
"Currently, there is no sign of a big policy change. I think the policy will remain tight to curb the market."
According to a government think tank, housing prices in most Chinese cities will continue to rise in December and into 2013. But the government will maintain its property market controls next year.
The country's urban population, which outgrew11 that of rural areas for the first time at the end of 2011, is expected to account for 70 percent of the total population by 2030.
For CRI, I am Li Dong.
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1 sluggish | |
adj.懒惰的,迟钝的,无精打采的 | |
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2 statistical | |
adj.统计的,统计学的 | |
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3 analyst | |
n.分析家,化验员;心理分析学家 | |
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4 deliberately | |
adv.审慎地;蓄意地;故意地 | |
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5 hoarding | |
n.贮藏;积蓄;临时围墙;囤积v.积蓄并储藏(某物)( hoard的现在分词 ) | |
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6 speculation | |
n.思索,沉思;猜测;投机 | |
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7 curb | |
n.场外证券市场,场外交易;vt.制止,抑制 | |
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8 rebound | |
v.弹回;n.弹回,跳回 | |
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9 rigid | |
adj.严格的,死板的;刚硬的,僵硬的 | |
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10 promotions | |
促进( promotion的名词复数 ); 提升; 推广; 宣传 | |
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11 outgrew | |
长[发展] 得超过(某物)的范围( outgrow的过去式 ); 长[发展]得不能再要(某物); 长得比…快; 生长速度超过 | |
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