数据告诉你:剩男危机论还没到来

 　　The number of 30-plus bachelors, or "leftover¹ men", in China's rural areas is astonishing. Some demographers² estimate there may be 30 million, even 50 million of them thanks to the widening sex ratio at birth. But such estimation, to some extent, overstates the reality of rural residents' marital³ status.

　　在中国农村地区，三十岁以上的单身男性（俗称“剩男”）的数量非常惊人。一些人口统计学家预测，由于男女比例失调日益严重，这一数字将会达到三千万，甚至五千万。但是这种对于农村地区人民的婚姻状况的推断在某种程度上有些言过其实。

　　The gender⁴ imbalance may indicate the number of unmarried men, not necessarily "leftover men", is higher than women. But since a husband can be five years older than his wife, and vice-versa, the age gap is not a major concern in marriage.

　　男女比例失调也许可以预测未婚男子的数量（不一定都是“剩男”）比女性高。但是这没有考虑到年龄差距在婚姻中并不是主要影响因素，例如丈夫可能会比妻子年长五岁，反之亦然。

　　数据告诉你:剩男危机论还没到来

　　The gender imbalance at birth started widening in 1995 and peaked about 10 years later. In other words, most of those born during this period are less than 20 years old－and hence not old enough for marriage－and will reach the "leftover men's threshold" after only about 10 years.

　　男女出生率失衡是在1995年开始扩大的，并在十年后达到顶峰。也就是说，这段时间出生的人现在还不满二十岁，尚未到达结婚年龄，而要等到十年后才能讨论是否为“剩男”。

　　Therefore, the nearly 20 million men in rural areas who remain unmarried despite crossing their 30s have little to do with the gender imbalance at birth. The problems they face in getting a wife, too, vary from region to region.

　　因此，现在造成近二百万的农村大龄未婚男子出现的原因跟男女比例失衡关系不大。他们面临的找媳妇问题是因地而异的。

　　One thing is certain, the causes behind the serious problem of "leftover men" are complicated and abnormal. About 30 percent of them couldn't get married at the socially accepted marriageable age because of physiological⁵ or psychological defects, with another 30 percent having failed because they kept waiting for their "dream partners".

　　有一点可以确定的是，引发如此严重“剩男危机”的原因是复杂和不寻常的。他们当中，有30%的人没能在正常年龄结婚是因为存在生理或心理方面的缺陷，另外还有30%的人是在等待自己的梦中情人的出现。

　　Only 10 percent or so of the "leftover men" failed to find a wife because of their "background"－which mostly happened before the mid-1980s for certain historical reasons. The highest percentage of "leftover men"－almost 60 percent－couldn't get married because they couldn't afford to pay the dowry for a bride.

　　只有大约10%的男性是由于八十年代中期的历史因素未能结婚的。而由于担负不起高额的嫁妆而不能结婚的“剩男”最多，占总数的60%。

　　The gender imbalance at birth has played a limited role in the "leftover men" problem. They, however, could trigger an even greater crisis－a situation in which more men in their 30s or 40s remain unmarried in the next decade or so.

　　男女出生比例失衡在“剩男”这一问题当中作用不是很大，但是，它却可以加重这一现象，从而引发更严重的危机。在接下的十几年甚至更长的时间里，将会出现越来越多的30岁到40岁的未婚男性。

 

1 leftover   

n.剩货，残留物，剩饭；adj.残余的

参考例句：

• These narrow roads are a leftover from the days of horse-drawn carriages.这些小道是从马车时代沿用下来的。
• Wonder if that bakery lets us take leftover home.不知道那家糕饼店会不会让我们把卖剩的带回家。

2 demographers   

n.人口统计学( demography的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Demographers, however, point out that the'single" trend will have a profound effect on American institutions. 不过，人口学家们指出，“单身”趋势将对美国的公共机构产生深远的影响。 来自时文部分
• Selectivity of human migration long been the focus of demographers and economists. 人口迁移的选择性一直以来都是人口学家和经济学家关注的焦点。 来自互联网

3 marital   

adj.婚姻的，夫妻的

参考例句：

• Her son had no marital problems.她的儿子没有婚姻问题。
• I regret getting involved with my daughter's marital problems;all its done is to bring trouble about my ears.我后悔干涉我女儿的婚姻问题, 现在我所做的一切将给我带来无穷的烦恼。

4 gender   

n.（生理上的）性，（名词、代词等的）性

参考例句：

• French differs from English in having gender for all nouns.法语不同于英语，所有的名词都有性。
• Women are sometimes denied opportunities solely because of their gender.妇女有时仅仅因为性别而无法获得种种机会。

5 physiological   

adj.生理学的，生理学上的

参考例句：

• He bought a physiological book.他买了一本生理学方面的书。
• Every individual has a physiological requirement for each nutrient.每个人对每种营养成分都有一种生理上的需要。