VOA慢速英语206--U.S. Presidential Race Tightens

AS IT IS 2016-09-09 U.S. Presidential Race Tightens¹

The U.S. Presidential election is getting closer.

The latest average of major polls shows Democrat² Hillary Clinton leading Republican Donald Trump³ by 3.3 percentage points, according to RealClearPolitics.com.

On August 10, that same average of nine polls had Clinton up by 7.7 percentage points.

A new poll Wednesday by CNN-ORC had Trump ahead by two points -- 45 percent to 43 percent -- among likely voters.

'Bounce' is Gone

Larry Sabato is director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.

He said “The tightening⁴ is natural. Sabato said it is because the “bounce” Clinton received in polls after the Democratic Party convention in July has gone.

Sabato said Clinton still leads in most of the important swing states that will decide the presidential election. Swing states are states where both Democrats⁵ and Republicans have a good chance of winning.

“There's no guarantee she (Clinton) will win, but the odds⁶ currently favor her,” Sabato said.

In the United States, the candidate who wins the election is not always the one who receives the most votes.

The Electoral College Decides

The election is decided⁷ by the Electoral College. Each state has seats in the Electoral College. States with larger populations have more seats.

Trump was very happy about the new CNN poll showing him leading among likely voters. Earlier CNN polls had him losing to Clinton.

“Their big poll came out today that Trump is winning,” he said. “It’s good psychology⁸. I know that for a fact, because people that didn’t call me yesterday, they are calling me today. So that’s the way life works, right?”

A close race might increase the importance of two minor⁹ party presidential candidates -- Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party Candidate Jill Stein. In the new CNN poll, 7 percent of likely voters support Johnson, 2 percent back Stein.

These low numbers for Johnson and Stein are surprising because large numbers of voters say they doubt whether Trump or Clinton would have the ability to lead the country.

Not Much Confidence

A new 50-state Washington Post-SurveyMonkey poll showed these results: 55 percent of registered voters say a Clinton presidency¹⁰ would threaten the well-being¹¹ of the United States. And 61 percent say a Trump presidency would threaten the nation’s well-being.

Nate Silver heads the political website fivethirtyeight.com -- named for the number of voting seats in the Electoral College. He still thinks Clinton is leading, but he says he is less sure than before.

The reason Silver is not sure is that so many voters -- about 20 percent – are telling pollsters that they are undecided or they will vote for a minor party candidate.

Silver gives “Trump better odds of winning than most other” experts who use polls and other information to predict election results. But he said there is “also a significant chance of a Clinton landslide,” or win by a very large percentage.

A close race could increase the importance of the four televised candidate debates. The three presidential debates will probably be for only Clinton and Trump without the minor candidates. The fourth, for the vice¹² presidential candidates -- will probably be just for Republican Mike Pence and Democrat Tim Kaine.

The first presidential debate takes place September 26. The election is November 8.

Sabato, the University of Virginia expert, said it is possible a very good debate by one of the candidates, or a major mistake by a candidate might cause people to change their opinions.

But usually, Sabato said, voters watch debates with their opinions already settled.

Words in this Story

bounce -- v. an increase in support because of an event or development

swing -- adj. a state that can support either Democratic or Republican parties

odds -- n. chances of something happening

psychology -- n. the science or study of the mind and behavior

1 tightens   

收紧( tighten的第三人称单数 )； （使）变紧； （使）绷紧； 加紧

参考例句：

• One set of provisions tightens emission standards. 一套使排放标准更加严格的规定。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法
• Requires no special tools or fittings; hand tightens to relief valve outlet. 不需要专用工具或管件；用手将其紧固到安全阀上即可。

2 democrat   

n.民主主义者，民主人士；民主党党员

参考例句：

• The Democrat and the Public criticized each other.民主党人和共和党人互相攻击。
• About two years later,he was defeated by Democrat Jimmy Carter.大约两年后，他被民主党人杰米卡特击败。

3 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

4 tightening   

上紧，固定，紧密

参考例句：

• Make sure the washer is firmly seated before tightening the pipe. 旋紧水管之前，检查一下洗衣机是否已牢牢地固定在底座上了。
• It needs tightening up a little. 它还需要再收紧些。

5 democrats   

n.民主主义者，民主人士( democrat的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The Democrats held a pep rally on Capitol Hill yesterday. 民主党昨天在国会山召开了竞选誓师大会。
• The democrats organize a filibuster in the senate. 民主党党员组织了阻挠议事。 来自《简明英汉词典》

6 odds   

n.让步，机率，可能性，比率；胜败优劣之别

参考例句：

• The odds are 5 to 1 that she will win.她获胜的机会是五比一。
• Do you know the odds of winning the lottery once?你知道赢得一次彩票的几率多大吗？

7 decided   

adj.决定了的，坚决的；明显的，明确的

参考例句：

• This gave them a decided advantage over their opponents.这使他们比对手具有明显的优势。
• There is a decided difference between British and Chinese way of greeting.英国人和中国人打招呼的方式有很明显的区别。

8 psychology   

n.心理，心理学，心理状态

参考例句：

• She has a background in child psychology.她受过儿童心理学的教育。
• He studied philosophy and psychology at Cambridge.他在剑桥大学学习哲学和心理学。

9 minor   

adj.较小(少)的，较次要的；n.辅修学科；vi.辅修

参考例句：

• The young actor was given a minor part in the new play.年轻的男演员在这出新戏里被分派担任一个小角色。
• I gave him a minor share of my wealth.我把小部分财产给了他。

10 presidency   

n.总统(校长，总经理)的职位(任期)

参考例句：

• Roosevelt was elected four times to the presidency of the United States.罗斯福连续当选四届美国总统。
• Two candidates are emerging as contestants for the presidency.两位候选人最终成为总统职位竞争者。

11 well-being   

n.安康，安乐，幸福

参考例句：

• He always has the well-being of the masses at heart.他总是把群众的疾苦挂在心上。
• My concern for their well-being was misunderstood as interference.我关心他们的幸福，却被误解为多管闲事。

12 vice   

n.坏事；恶习；[pl.]台钳，老虎钳；adj.副的

参考例句：

• He guarded himself against vice.他避免染上坏习惯。
• They are sunk in the depth of vice.他们堕入了罪恶的深渊。