VOA慢速英语2020--缅甸为11月大选做准备

Myanmar Gears Up for November Election

Myanmar's ruling National League for Democracy (NLD) party is widely expected to win the most votes in the country's November 8 general elections. However, political experts say it is less clear if it will win enough to keep its controlling majority in Parliament.

New and old rebellions, disenfranchised Rohingya and coronavirus-linked restrictions¹ also are raising concerns about how credible² the election will be.

'A very simplistic choice'

Pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi led the NLD to a historic landslide³ election win in 2015, defeating the military-backed Union Solidarity⁴ Development (USD) party. That NLD win led to reforms to replace the military rule of Myanmar, formerly⁵ Burma, to civilian⁶ rule.

The country's constitution bars Suu Kyi from seeking presidential office. However, with her ally Wyn Myint in that position, Suu Kyi is widely considered the country's leader.

Suu Kyi won the Nobel Peace Prize in 1991 and was widely celebrated⁷ for her battle to end military rule in Myanmar. However, she has lost much international support in recent years in connection with Myanmar's treatment of its ethnic⁸ Rohingya minority. At least 700,000 Rohingya fled the far-western state of Rakhine for Bangladesh beginning in August 2017. They were escaping Burma's military campaign against them, one the United Nations has recognized as genocidal

In Myanmar, Suu Kyi and her party remain very popular among the majority ethnic Bamar people. The NLD is seen as providing the best hope to remove the military from the government forever, said Khin Zaw Win. He is the director of the Tampadiba Institute, a Myanmar research group.

"So, it's a very simplistic choice and notion, saying that, OK, if you hate the military you have to support the NLD because that's the best chance," he said.

If it keeps most of the Bamar vote, "the NLD will still win a substantial number of seats, but it will not be a landslide," Khin Zaw Win said.

It will not be a landslide because many of Myanmar's ethnic minorities no longer back the NLD, experts say.

Minority rapport⁹

Ethnic minorities make up more than 40 percent of the population. They strongly supported the NLD in the 2015 election. After years of hostilities¹⁰ between the military and ethnic rebel armies, many saw the possibility for peace with Suu Kyi and her party.

Instead, the last five years have been more like "a kick in the chest," said Khin Zaw Win.

Three-way peace talks between an alliance of ethnic armed groups, the military and Suu Kyi's government have made little progress.

In addition, a new front in the country's civil war opened up in northern Rakhine state. Tens of thousands of people have been displaced by fighting between the military and separatist Arakan Army. The Arakan Army wants more self-rule for the state's ethnic Rakhine.

Suu Kyi's government also began a campaign to build statues in honor of her father, Aung Sam, an ethnic Bamar independence hero. The decision to place those statues in areas with large minority populations caused protests and anger, said Ye Myo Hein. He is an expert with Myanmar's Tagaung Institute of Political Studies.

Many ethnic minorities now support smaller parties instead of the NLD. The NLD may lose its governing majority and be forced into a coalition¹¹ government.

Free and fair

A recent sharp increase in COVID-19 cases is also raising the possibility that the government will postpone¹² the vote, said Sai Ye Kyaw Swar Myint.

He runs Myanmar's largest independent voting observation and support organization, the People's Alliance for Credible Elections.

He said in a statement that the stay-at-home order to fight the coronavirus means candidates cannot go out and talk to voters. Meanwhile, the NLD controls state media.

He also said Myanmar's elections would not be truly free and fair until everyone who deserves citizenship¹³, and the right to vote, gets it.

Myanmar cancelled Rohingya citizenship rights years ago. They can not vote, as a result. Rohingya presence in the area is believed to go back hundreds of years, however.

Words in This Story

disenfranchise– v. to take away one's right to vote

landslide – n. a very large victory for one side

notion– n. an idea

substantial– adj. given a lot of weight or power

1 restrictions   

约束( restriction的名词复数 )； 管制； 制约因素； 带限制性的条件（或规则）

参考例句：

• I found the restrictions irksome. 我对那些限制感到很烦。
• a snaggle of restrictions 杂乱无章的种种限制

2 credible   

adj.可信任的，可靠的

参考例句：

• The news report is hardly credible.这则新闻报道令人难以置信。
• Is there a credible alternative to the nuclear deterrent?是否有可以取代核威慑力量的可靠办法？

3 landslide   

n.(竞选中)压倒多数的选票；一面倒的胜利

参考例句：

• Our candidate is predicated to win by a landslide.我们的候选人被预言将以绝对优势取胜。
• An electoral landslide put the Labour Party into power in 1945.1945年工党以压倒多数的胜利当选执政。

4 solidarity   

n.团结；休戚相关

参考例句：

• They must preserve their solidarity.他们必须维护他们的团结。
• The solidarity among China's various nationalities is as firm as a rock.中国各族人民之间的团结坚如磐石。

5 formerly   

adv.从前，以前

参考例句：

• We now enjoy these comforts of which formerly we had only heard.我们现在享受到了过去只是听说过的那些舒适条件。
• This boat was formerly used on the rivers of China.这船从前航行在中国内河里。

6 civilian   

adj.平民的，民用的，民众的

参考例句：

• There is no reliable information about civilian casualties.关于平民的伤亡还没有确凿的信息。
• He resigned his commission to take up a civilian job.他辞去军职而从事平民工作。

7 celebrated   

adj.有名的，声誉卓著的

参考例句：

• He was soon one of the most celebrated young painters in England.不久他就成了英格兰最负盛名的年轻画家之一。
• The celebrated violinist was mobbed by the audience.观众团团围住了这位著名的小提琴演奏家。

8 ethnic   

adj.人种的，种族的，异教徒的

参考例句：

• This music would sound more ethnic if you played it in steel drums.如果你用钢鼓演奏，这首乐曲将更具民族特色。
• The plan is likely only to aggravate ethnic frictions.这一方案很有可能只会加剧种族冲突。

9 rapport   

n.和睦，意见一致

参考例句：

• She has an excellent rapport with her staff.她跟她职员的关系非常融洽。
• We developed a high degree of trust and a considerable personal rapport.我们发展了高度的互相信任和不错的私人融洽关系。

10 hostilities   

n.战争；敌意(hostility的复数)；敌对状态；战事

参考例句：

• Mexico called for an immediate cessation of hostilities. 墨西哥要求立即停止敌对行动。
• All the old hostilities resurfaced when they met again. 他们再次碰面时，过去的种种敌意又都冒了出来。

11 coalition   

n.结合体，同盟，结合，联合

参考例句：

• The several parties formed a coalition.这几个政党组成了政治联盟。
• Coalition forces take great care to avoid civilian casualties.联盟军队竭尽全力避免造成平民伤亡。

12 postpone   

v.延期，推迟

参考例句：

• I shall postpone making a decision till I learn full particulars.在未获悉详情之前我得从缓作出决定。
• She decided to postpone the converastion for that evening.她决定当天晚上把谈话搁一搁。

13 citizenship   

n.市民权，公民权，国民的义务(身份)

参考例句：

• He was born in Sweden,but he doesn't have Swedish citizenship.他在瑞典出生，但没有瑞典公民身分。
• Ten years later,she chose to take Australian citizenship.十年后，她选择了澳大利亚国籍。