VOA常速英语2008年-Experts: Sanctions Partially Successful as Dipl

By Scott Bobb
Johannesburg
10 March 2008

Economic sanctions are imposed primarily as a non-violent way to press a specific government to change. But sanctions are often controversial and their effectiveness is not assured. VOA's Scott Bobb in Johannesburg takes a look at the debate over how successful sanctions have been.

Analysts² say that economic sanctions, such as a ban on trade and investment, have enjoyed mixed success.

Gary Hufbauer is the author of "Economic Sanctions Reconsidered," and a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. He says his research shows that sanctions do have some effect.

"We would say that about a third of the cases, there has been some noticeable positive effect in achieving the result," he said. "Where are those cases concentrated? They are concentrated in what we call modest policy goals. That is, trying to shape the foreign government, the target country to, for example, free up some political prisoners, to stop the early stages of a country trying to acquire nuclear weapons..."

In South Africa for example, international sanctions are credited for helping³ to end apartheid and bring majority rule in 1994. Francis Kornegay is an analyst¹ with Johannesburg's Center for Political Studies.

"South Africa's political and economic isolation⁴, combined with the insurgency⁵, the un-governability, definitely stretched the [apartheid] regime to the point where their calculation was that trying to hang on to the apartheid system would only bring diminishing returns and that it was best to begin to settle and go into negotiations," said Kornegay.

The director of Johannesburg's Econometrix consultancy, Azar Jammine, says that other sanctions, such as the international ban on sporting and cultural links, played a mostly psychological role in pressing for change. But he says that even these measures were not the main reason for the decision by then-President Frederick De Klerk to negotiate with the Africa National Congress.

"The overall geopolitical environment changed dramatically in 1989 and it was no coincidence that President De Klerk un-banned the ANC on the second of February 1990, precisely⁶ four months after the fall of the Berlin Wall," he said.

Jammine says communist governments provided considerable support for the ANC's liberation struggle and the demise⁷ of communism removed a major fear of apartheid leaders.

Sanctions are also said to have played a role in Libya's acceptance of responsibility for the Lockerbie bombing and its subsequent rejection⁸ of terrorism. But Libya's ambassador to the United States, Ali Aujali, says the diplomatic engagement with Libya by the international community had a far greater effect.

"Sanctions are not an instrument to change policy of other countries," said Aujali. "Sanctions affect the daily life of peoples. But what is important is how realistic we are to solve our differences. That is what solved the crisis between Libya and the West."

Analysts note that economic sanctions often hurt the powerless, the very people they are intended to help. Economist⁹ Jammine adds that sanctions, such as those against South Africa, had long-term effects that continued well after the end of apartheid.

"South Africa was largely self-sufficient, but by trying to become self-sufficient it forced the government to adopt fairly protectionist trade policies which meant erecting¹⁰ high tariff¹¹ barriers," he said.

He says as a result high interest rates and economic inefficiencies continued for some time after sanctions were lifted and trade barriers came down.

Kornegay says another weakness is that sanctions are not always universally supported.

"There are all kinds of ways of getting around sanctions. And there was a lot of successful sanctions busting¹² when South Africa was under sanctions," he added. "And then when you combine that with the fact that politically and in the economic interest of a number of countries they may feel an incentive¹³ to continue trading or aiding particular countries under sanctions, that compounds the challenge."

And he notes that sanctions busting was rampant¹⁴ in Saddam Hussein's Iraq.

Jammine at Econometrix says that in an increasingly globalized economy, governments have far less control over trade flows.

"It is becoming ever more difficult for anyone to try and impose sanctions in an environment in which the world is becoming so global," he said. "The tentacles¹⁵ of communications and capital flows have become so great that it's probably more and more of a challenge every day."

Although sanctions may become less effective as the global economy matures, they will continue to be used because they provide an intermediate level of international pressure lying between diplomatic communiqués and military intervention¹⁶.

1 analyst   

n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家

参考例句：

• What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
• The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。

2 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

3 helping   

n.食物的一份&adj.帮助人的，辅助的

参考例句：

• The poor children regularly pony up for a second helping of my hamburger. 那些可怜的孩子们总是要求我把我的汉堡包再给他们一份。
• By doing this, they may at times be helping to restore competition. 这样一来, 他在某些时候,有助于竞争的加强。

4 isolation   

n.隔离，孤立，分解，分离

参考例句：

• The millionaire lived in complete isolation from the outside world.这位富翁过着与世隔绝的生活。
• He retired and lived in relative isolation.他退休后，生活比较孤寂。

5 insurgency   

n.起义；暴动；叛变

参考例句：

• And as in China, unrest and even insurgency are widespread. 而在中国，动乱甚至暴乱都普遍存在。 来自互联网
• Dr Zyphur is part an insurgency against this idea. 塞弗博士是这一观点逆流的一部分。 来自互联网

6 precisely   

adv.恰好，正好，精确地，细致地

参考例句：

• It's precisely that sort of slick sales-talk that I mistrust.我不相信的正是那种油腔滑调的推销宣传。
• The man adjusted very precisely.那个人调得很准。

7 demise   

n.死亡；v.让渡，遗赠，转让

参考例句：

• He praised the union's aims but predicted its early demise.他赞扬协会的目标，但预期这一协会很快会消亡。
• The war brought about the industry's sudden demise.战争道致这个行业就这么突然垮了。

8 rejection   

n.拒绝，被拒，抛弃，被弃

参考例句：

• He decided not to approach her for fear of rejection.他因怕遭拒绝决定不再去找她。
• The rejection plunged her into the dark depths of despair.遭到拒绝使她陷入了绝望的深渊。

9 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

10 erecting   

v.使直立，竖起( erect的现在分词 )；建立

参考例句：

• Nations can restrict their foreign trade by erecting barriers to exports as well as imports. 象设置进口壁垒那样，各国可以通过设置出口壁垒来限制对外贸易。 来自辞典例句
• Could you tell me the specific lift-slab procedure for erecting buildings? 能否告之用升板法安装楼房的具体程序？ 来自互联网

11 tariff   

n.关税，税率；(旅馆、饭店等)价目表，收费表

参考例句：

• There is a very high tariff on jewelry.宝石类的关税率很高。
• The government is going to lower the tariff on importing cars.政府打算降低进口汽车的关税。

12 busting   

打破，打碎( bust的现在分词 )； 突击搜查（或搜捕）； （使）降级，降低军阶

参考例句：

• Jim and his wife were busting up again yesterday. 吉姆和他的妻子昨天又吵架了。
• He figured she was busting his chops, but it was all true. 他以为她在捉弄他，其实完全是真的。

13 incentive   

n.刺激；动力；鼓励；诱因；动机

参考例句：

• Money is still a major incentive in most occupations.在许多职业中，钱仍是主要的鼓励因素。
• He hasn't much incentive to work hard.他没有努力工作的动机。

14 rampant   

adj.(植物)蔓生的；狂暴的，无约束的

参考例句：

• Sickness was rampant in the area.该地区疾病蔓延。
• You cannot allow children to rampant through the museum.你不能任由小孩子在博物馆里乱跑。

15 tentacles   

n.触手( tentacle的名词复数 )；触角；触须；触毛

参考例句：

• Tentacles of fear closed around her body. 恐惧的阴影笼罩着她。
• Many molluscs have tentacles. 很多软体动物有触角。 来自《简明英汉词典》

16 intervention   

n.介入，干涉，干预

参考例句：

• The government's intervention in this dispute will not help.政府对这场争论的干预不会起作用。
• Many people felt he would be hostile to the idea of foreign intervention.许多人觉得他会反对外来干预。