VOA标准英语2009-Asian Countries Take Fresh Look at Economic

The contraction¹ in global trade in the past year has led many governments in Asia, including Thailand, to take a fresh look at an economic model that has led growth over recent decades.

Bangkok   23 November 2009

 
A Thai worker loads boxes into an export container at the Port Authority in Bangkok (File)

"The crisis has shown to us that being totally dependent on exports - it can pose problems and some fragility to the economy."

The contraction in global trade in the past year has led many governments in Asia, including Thailand, to take a fresh look at an economic model that has led growth over recent decades. Economists³ and business analysts⁴ say Asia is shifting focus to regional trade to cut its dependence⁵ on the United States and European markets.

Asia's economic fortunes over the past several decades rested on exports, especially of manufactured consumer goods, electronics and textiles.

The strategy has raised living standards and reduced poverty from Japan to Indonesia.

But this year, the World Trade Organization says global trade has contracted at rates not seen in almost 80 years. Export earnings⁶ among the world's poorest countries sank by over 40 percent, erasing⁷ millions of jobs, as the financial crisis that started in the United States swept across the globe.

The Thai economy is a leading example of the export model. The United States and Europe account for more than a quarter of its exports; but this year shipments to those markets are down about 17 percent.

Kiat Sittheeamorn, president of the Thailand Trade Representative Office, says the global downturn led many Asian governments to question their dependence on exports.

"There are lots of talks about rebalancing growth, a new growth model," Kiat siad. "The crisis has shown to us that being totally dependent on exports - it can pose problems and some fragility to the economy."

Kiat says governments should pay more attention at promoting local technology and skills to add value to manufactured goods.

Thailand's central bank, the Bank of Thailand, recently said that from 1985 to 2007 the proportion of exports to the country's gross domestic product increased from 25 percent to 70 percent.

Its top exports include textiles, footwear, fishery products, rice, rubber, jewelry⁸, automobiles¹⁰, computers and electrical appliances.

The United States buys more than 10 percent of Thai exports and is the country's leading trading partner. Its key Asian markets are Japan, China, and Singapore.

Ravi Ratnayake is an economist² and director at United Nations Economic and Social Commission for the Asia Pacific. He says the slump¹¹ has highlighted the country's vulnerability to sharp swings in global trade. 

"The region is too much dependent on external markets like the U.S.A. and Europe and without giving attention to domestic demand as well as regional demand," Ratnayake siad. "So what we are saying is that we need to have a balance from sources of growth. If the region does not depend so much on external markets we are saying the impact of the crisis on the region could have been minimized."

Over recent years Thailand has opened new markets through regional free trade agreements. These include deals with India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, Australia and New Zealand, and within Southeast Asia.

UNESCAP economist Shamika Sirimanne says the trade deals make a difference. 

"They are diversifying¹³ away from the European Union and U.S. markets toward regional markets," Sirimanne siad. "There's a lot of intentions, not just Thailand, but also across the region to diversify¹². They have seen the repercussions¹⁴ of being dependent on big markets and then being burned. But let's see how we move forward how much can be realized."

Sirimanne says reforms are needed to speed regional trade, such as cutting bureaucracy.

"With the neighboring countries there's a lot more forms to be filled, lot more barriers to be jumped just to trade across borders," Sirimanne siad. "These internal barriers need to be lifted if you need to rely more and more on the region for your exports to grow.

Thailand's automobile⁹ sector¹⁵ exports to 190 countries, but sales shrank by up to 40 percent over the past year.

Vallop Tiasiri, president of Thailand's Automotive Industry Institute, says the industry remains¹⁶ well placed to benefits from a shift toward Asia.

"We are the alternative production hub in this region. So we still keep competitiveness in Asia. … There are only five places in Asia with a production capacity of more than one million (units) a year," Vallop siad.

Other business analysts say there is too little debate in looking to ways to ensure stable growth.

Jacques-Chai Chomphongdi is an academic and member of group Focus on the Global South, which has been examining an alternative model for growth, with more focus on the domestic economy.

"We have been trying to promote a more diverse model of development beyond the export oriented one," Chomphongdi siad. "And using the case of Thailand it has been going in the direction for the last several decades. It shows many dangerous areas that can occur by relying on external factors as the main engine of economic growth." 

Chomphongdi says he wants to see governments be more courageous¹⁷ in presenting alternative models of growth.

The Bank of Thailand says the existing model will continue to drive the economy. It says the small domestic market will not replace exports as the "superior engine" of growth for several years.

Thailand's exports are expected to rise by 15 percent next year. But attention will be on how much trade shifts away from the U.S. and Europe toward Asia.

1 contraction   

n.缩略词，缩写式，害病

参考例句：

• The contraction of this muscle raises the lower arm.肌肉的收缩使前臂抬起。
• The forces of expansion are balanced by forces of contraction.扩张力和收缩力相互平衡。

2 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

3 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

4 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

5 dependence   

n.依靠，依赖；信任，信赖；隶属

参考例句：

• Doctors keep trying to break her dependence of the drug.医生们尽力使她戒除毒瘾。
• He was freed from financial dependence on his parents.他在经济上摆脱了对父母的依赖。

6 earnings   

n.工资收人；利润，利益，所得

参考例句：

• That old man lives on the earnings of his daughter.那个老人靠他女儿的收入维持生活。
• Last year there was a 20% decrease in his earnings.去年他的收入减少了20%。

7 erasing   

v.擦掉( erase的现在分词 )；抹去；清除

参考例句：

• He was like a sponge, erasing the past, soaking up the future. 他象一块海绵，挤出过去，吸进未来。 来自辞典例句
• Suddenly, fear overtook longing, erasing memories. 突然，恐惧淹没了渴望，泯灭了回忆。 来自辞典例句

8 jewelry   

n.（jewllery）（总称）珠宝

参考例句：

• The burglars walked off with all my jewelry.夜盗偷走了我的全部珠宝。
• Jewelry and lace are mostly feminine belongings.珠宝和花边多数是女性用品。

9 automobile   

n.汽车，机动车

参考例句：

• He is repairing the brake lever of an automobile.他正在修理汽车的刹车杆。
• The automobile slowed down to go around the curves in the road.汽车在路上转弯时放慢了速度。

10 automobiles   

n.汽车( automobile的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• When automobiles become popular,the use of the horse and buggy passed away. 汽车普及后，就不再使用马和马车了。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Automobiles speed in an endless stream along the boulevard. 宽阔的林荫道上，汽车川流不息。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

11 slump   

n.暴跌，意气消沉，（土地）下沉；vi.猛然掉落，坍塌，大幅度下跌

参考例句：

• She is in a slump in her career.她处在事业的低谷。
• Economists are forecasting a slump.经济学家们预言将发生经济衰退。

12 diversify   

v.（使）不同，（使）变得多样化

参考例句：

• Our company is trying to diversify.我们公司正力图往多样化方面发展。
• Hills and woods diversify the landscape.山陵和树木点缀景色。

13 diversifying   

v.使多样化，多样化( diversify的现在分词 )；进入新的商业领域

参考例句：

• Some publishers are now diversifying into software. 有些出版社目前正兼营软件。 来自辞典例句
• Silverlit is diversifying into new markets, such as Russia and Eastern Europe. Silverlit正在使他们的市场变得多样化，开发新的市场如俄罗斯和东欧国家。 来自互联网

14 repercussions   

n.后果，反响( repercussion的名词复数 )；余波

参考例句：

• The collapse of the company will have repercussions for the whole industry. 这家公司的垮台将会给整个行业造成间接的负面影响。
• Human acts have repercussions far beyond the frontiers of the human world. 人类行为所产生的影响远远超出人类世界的范围。 来自《简明英汉词典》

15 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。

16 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

17 courageous   

adj.勇敢的，有胆量的

参考例句：

• We all honour courageous people.我们都尊重勇敢的人。
• He was roused to action by courageous words.豪言壮语促使他奋起行动。