VOA标准英语2009年-China to Allow 2 Children in Some Shanghai

For decades, most couples in China were allowed to have just one child. But in some cities, that policy is changing - most recently in Shanghai. The reason: China needs more young people to care for its rapidly rising elderly population.
　
One-child families like the Yims in Hong Kong have been the norm in China

After 10 years of marriage the Guos would like to have children.

When asked how many children they want, the Guos glance quickly at each other and then give the same answer.

"One or two. One or two, yeah," Guo said. "I think for society, for country, maybe two children is better. But because the family plan was carried out so many years so maybe this plan cannot change at once. But maybe it will last for more than several years, and after that the government will change that plan and so maybe the next generation people would have two children."

But under a policy from the 1970s, they, and most couples in China are allowed to have just one child.

Many population experts, and Chinese couples, say that restriction¹ is outdated². There are signs the government is beginning to agree, with reports of less strict enforcement. And recently the Shanghai government said some couples will be encouraged to have two.

Sophi Li is an educator from Beijing now doing research in public policy at Hong Kong University. She says initially³ the one-child policy helped manage China's population, which boomed after the People's Republic of China was founded and sanitation⁴ and medical care improved. At 1.3 billion, China is the world's most populous⁵ country.

But over time, the one-child policy has resulted in a four-to-two-to-one ratio: For every four grandparents there are two parents and one child. Li says that means as China's population ages there are fewer workers and young people to care for the old.

"That would pose a substantial threat to social stability, which has been heavily emphasized by the government," Li said.

James Vere is an assistant professor in the School of Economics at the University of Hong Kong. He says China's aging population poses social, environmental and economic threats to the world's third largest economy.

"If you have one young person supporting three old people or maybe four, as might seem to be the case, then it's just totally unsustainable," Vere said.

To avoid that, the Shanghai government says couples will be urged to have two children if both the husband and wife are themselves only children. The reason: People over 60 make up 22 percent of the city's population, a number that is expected to grow to 34 percent in 2020.
　
Shanghai will encourage some couples to have two children, like the Lee brothers from Hong Kong

Although Hong Kong is a Chinese territory, Beijing's one-child policy does not apply there.

On a recent Sunday, Hong Kong couple Ringo and Eva Lee took their two sons in strollers to see their uncle. Eva Lee says their mainland relatives would prefer to have two or more children.

"If they are just allowed to have one baby, then actually they have no siblings," Lee said. "Actually they have very few relatives in the future. No aunts. No uncles. Then I think that's not a good thing for them."

Taking a break from strolling with his baby and wife, Peggy, Ray Yim says it is expensive to raise children in Hong Kong and China.

"The government welfare system is not as good as before," Yim said. "You have to spend quite an amount of money on the raising a child because now competition is huge. You can't just put your baby without any education or raise him up like the past."

Beijing says since the 1970s, its family planning policy has prevented more than 250 million births, easing pressure on the country to feed its people.

But the policy has been controversial in a country where family and ancestry⁶ are very important. At times, it has been harshly enforced with forced abortions⁷ and sterilizations.

Yet despite the recent change in Shanghai, there is no indication that Beijing will totally do away with the one-child policy in the near future.

Li, the public policy researcher, warns that could result in economic and social problems. She thinks the government should end the policy and allow the population to grow at the same pace as its economy.

The United Nations and other organizations estimate that at the current rate China's population will start to shrink around 2030. If that happens, the data suggest, by 2050, almost of the third of the population will be over age 60, and only 48 percent will be of working age.

1 restriction   

n.限制，约束

参考例句：

• The park is open to the public without restriction.这个公园对公众开放，没有任何限制。
• The 30 mph speed restriction applies in all built-up areas.每小时限速30英里适用于所有建筑物聚集区。

2 outdated   

adj.旧式的，落伍的，过时的；v.使过时

参考例句：

• That list of addresses is outdated,many have changed.那个通讯录已经没用了，许多地址已经改了。
• Many of us conform to the outdated customs laid down by our forebears.我们许多人都遵循祖先立下的过时习俗。

3 initially   

adv.最初，开始

参考例句：

• The ban was initially opposed by the US.这一禁令首先遭到美国的反对。
• Feathers initially developed from insect scales.羽毛最初由昆虫的翅瓣演化而来。

4 sanitation   

n.公共卫生，环境卫生，卫生设备

参考例句：

• The location is exceptionally poor,viewed from the sanitation point.从卫生角度来看，这个地段非常糟糕。
• Many illnesses are the result,f inadequate sanitation.许多疾病都来源于不健全的卫生设施。

5 populous   

adj.人口稠密的，人口众多的

参考例句：

• London is the most populous area of Britain.伦敦是英国人口最稠密的地区。
• China is the most populous developing country in the world.中国是世界上人口最多的发展中国家。

6 ancestry   

n.祖先，家世

参考例句：

• Their ancestry settled the land in 1856.他们的祖辈1856年在这块土地上定居下来。
• He is an American of French ancestry.他是法国血统的美国人。

7 abortions   

n.小产( abortion的名词复数 )；小产胎儿；（计划）等中止或夭折；败育

参考例句：

• The Venerable Master: By not having abortions, by not killing living beings. 上人：不堕胎、不杀生。 来自互联网
• Conclusion Chromosome abnormality is one of the causes of spontaneous abortions. 结论：染色体异常是导致反复自然流产的原因之一。 来自互联网