印度可以同时打赢中国和巴基斯坦?

 　　Army chief declares that India is perfectly¹ capable of winning a two-front war against China and Pakistan. But consider this: the Chinese military has two million active personnel Pakistan has 600000 while India has 1.3 million. The math does does not seem to favor India.

　　陆军参谋长声称印度具有完胜中巴两线作战的能力。但是考虑一下，解放军有200万而巴基斯坦则有60万现役军人，但印度只有130万，数字上看好像印度并不那么美丽。

　　After 26/11 India was sorely tempted² to retaliate³ against Pakistan. As it was after the attack on Parliament in 2001. But after every major provocation⁴ it dithers. For sure there is heavy American pressure. But Indian defence planners also seem unsure.

　　在2008年11月26号孟买恐怖袭击事件后，印度非常想要报复巴基斯坦。同样的，2001年印度议会恐怖袭击事件后印度也想报复巴基斯坦。但是每次进行挑衅后印度都放弃了。当然有来自美国的重大压力。但是印度的国防计划者们貌似也不是很确定。。

　　Pakistan will fight to the hilt any Indian attack but after a few weeks it will wilt⁵. It hopes that the Chinese open a second front against India but that could be a forlorn hope. The Chinese inscrutable as ever may decide to do nothing. Or they may show solidarity⁶ with Pakistan and hit India.

　　R03;巴基斯坦刚开始会全力迎击对印的战争，但是坚持不了多久。他们会寄希望于中国开辟对印的第二条战线但是可能希望渺茫。中国一如既往的模糊战略也许什么都不做，也许会为了巴铁的关系攻击印度。

　　India would then be forced to take on China much to Pakistan’s delight. All along there would be intense American pressure to bring a subcontinental war to a halt. But it may not succeed. In the absence of China a sinking Pakistan would be tempted to resort to nukes.

　　解释印度将正中巴基斯坦的下怀被迫对抗中国。然后美国会施加压力终止印度次大陆战争。但是可能不会成功。如果中国不提供帮助，弱势的巴基斯坦可能会借助于使用核武器。

　　The situation would be as complicated in case Pakistan initiates⁷ a war against India. In a couple of years the Taliban should have taken Kabul. Thousands of foreign jihadis—Chechens Uighurs Arabs—would suddenly become unemployed⁸ then.

　　如果巴基斯坦发动针对印度的战争，情况将变得复杂起来。几年之内，塔利班将占领喀布尔。届时大量外国圣战分子将失去雇主，包括车臣人，维吾尔人和阿拉伯人。

　　Pakistan will almost without fail redirect them as well as its own jihadis against Kashmir. It tried the same in 1989 had the Indian army on the ropes but the army recovered and the Pakistani putsch failed. But now presents another golden opportunity that Pakistan is sure not to miss.

　　巴基斯坦势必将用这些人以及国内的圣战分子来对付克什米尔。1989年巴基斯坦也采取了同样的手段，让印度军队差点无力招架，但是印度军队后来恢复了，所以巴基斯坦的暴动才失败了。但是现在巴基斯坦又迎来了新的机会，它是不会错过的。

　　The only difference is that the Indian army is battle-hardened now and well-versed in counter-insurgency. So Pakistan will find it hard to detach Kashmir from India. Frustrated⁹ it may launch an attack elsewhere once again hoping the Chinese would join in the party.

　　唯一不同的是印度军队现在是身经百战，精通反叛乱。所以巴基斯坦很难把喀什米尔和印度分开。无奈之下，它可能会在其他地方发动攻击并希望中国加入战斗。

　　But with India not the aggressor China might be more reluctant to do so. Or they just might. With the Chinese one never knows. Indian defence planners must then necessarily plan for a two-front war. How prepared are they?

　　但是由于印度不是侵略者，所以中国可能不愿意参战。也有可能参战，中国人的心理谁又能了解呢。印度国防规划者有必要做好两线作战的规划。他们准备得怎么样了？

　　The vast majority of India’s men and munitions¹⁰ face Pakistan. Things look rather bleak¹¹ on its eastern front. Each time a few Chinese soldiers show up on the border an edgy¹² army alxs the media which raises a national alarm. The ghost of 1962 is still alive and kicking.

　　印度绝大多数人和武器都面对着巴基斯坦。所以东线看起来相当暗淡。每次一些中国士兵出现在边境，印度陆军就感到急躁不安，然后通知媒体，然后由媒体引发全国警报。1962年的幽灵依然阴魂不散。

　　The Chinese have unveiled two types of stealth fighters. The stealth fighter is an amazing conventional weapon. Evading¹³ radar¹⁴ and hence detection it can hone in with exact precision on an enemy target destroy it and return home unscathed.

　　中国已经公布了两款隐形战斗机。隐形战斗机是一种很棒的常规武器，能够躲避雷达的侦测，长驱直入，以极度精确的打击摧毁敌方目标，然后毫发无损地返航。

　　India is light years away from developing any reliable fighter jet leave alone a stealth. India’s primary deterrent¹⁵ against China seems to be missiles but long-range missiles can go awry¹⁶. Aim for Shanghai but plonk yourself in the water. An Indian proposal to raise a mountain strike corps¹⁷ aimed against China was scrapped¹⁸ apparently¹⁹ for lack of money.

　　研发出可靠的喷气式战斗机对于印度来说仍然是一件遥不可及的事，更遑论隐形战斗机了。印度把导弹当作威慑中国的主要手段，然而远程导弹可能会飞往错误的方向，本来是瞄着上海发射，但结果却一头扎进了海里。（印度的布朗运动弹已经名声在外了么。。。）印度的一项旨在建立山地打击军以应对中国的提议也由于显而易见的资金缺乏而作罢。

　　Indian defence planners have been following a twin-track weaponization policy. They fund indigenous²⁰ arms development but even 70 years after Independence Indian defence labs cannot produce a decent pistol.

　　在军备发展方面，印度的国防规划者们一直遵循着外购与自研并举的双轨政策，他们为本土的武器研发提供资金。然而，即便是在国家独立了70年之后，印度的军工科研院所甚至连一支像样的手枪都还造不出来。

　　The labs moan that the powers that be are really only interested in acquiring arms from abroad perhaps because of all the cuts involved. That may well be the case but the point is that India must arm itself effectively whether indigenously²¹ or through foreign means.

　　各个研究所都在抱怨政府说 只对从外国获取装备感兴趣，可能是与所有开支的削减有关。或许事情真是如此，但是关键在于，印度必须高效的武装自己，不管是否国产抑或靠海外渠道。

　　The previous government was so haunted by the ghost of Bofors that it literally²² put a stop to any major weapons acquisition. The current government seems keen to undo²³ past mistakes but it has convolved foreign arms procurement²⁴ with its Make in India campaign.

　　历任政府都被“博福斯幽灵”搞得心神不宁，那真真切切的让主战武器采买近乎停滞。现任政府看上去急切的想从过去的错误中脱开，但是“印度制造”运动对外国武器采购造成了不利的影响

　　The Rafale was the winner in a tortuous²⁵ tender process but when the government arm-twisted the French to make the jet in India they balked²⁶. The price would have to go up considerably²⁷ because the French would have to set up foreign supply chains in India Indian manufacturers not seen as being up to the mark.

　　阵风战斗机是这场曲折的招标的大赢家，但是当印度政府对法国施压以使该机能在印度制造时，他们畏缩了。那势必导致价格飞涨，因为法国必须在印度建立一条海外供应链，而印度制造商（的工业水平）看上去并不足以符合标准。

　　The air force needs about 200 fighter jets. The Americans seem inclined to make the F-16 in India but they do not not appear terribly convincing. Saab of Sweden has been an aggressive promisor but then again. Conflating buying foreign jets with making them in India could take years before they take to the skies.

　　空军需要约200架战机。美国人似乎倾向于让印度制造F16，但是他们并没有表现得让人完全信服。不过反倒是瑞典萨博公司（Artoria：即国内所称“绅宝”）诚意满满。在战机飞上天之前，海外购买与国产化加起来得花很长时间。

　　And then what about the stealth? India needs at least a few stealth fighters of its own to counter China. Any company we get conventional jets from must have stealth capability²⁸ as well as the willingness to supply it to us.

　　然后呢，隐形战机怎样？印度需要最低程度的隐形战机以反制中国。向我们出售传统战机的公司必须具备隐形技术以及向我们提供隐形战机的意愿。

　　Finally the military has to be made a more attractive career choice. The army suffers from a shortage of 10000 officers. A senior army officer recounted that in a country like India there is no shortage of people. But the army needs quality people. After Independence the army was a career of choice which led to the stunning²⁹ 1971.

　　最后，军队必须变成一个更加吸引人的职业选择。陆军现在短缺1万名军官。一名高级陆军官员称印度这样的国家根本不缺人。但是军队需要高质量的人才。独立后，军队变成了一个特别的职业，导致了1971年的大胜（第三次印巴战争）。

　　In both Pakistan and China military personnel are looked after from cradle to grave. We treat our veterans shabbily. Any army necessarily has to have brawn³⁰ but to prevail it must have brains like Napoleon Clausewitz and Rommel. Do we?

　　在中巴两国，军人的一生都有优待。我们对待自己的退伍兵很吝啬。对于任何一只军队力量不可或缺，但更需要像拿破仑、克劳塞维茨和隆美尔一样的领袖。我们有吗？

1 perfectly   

adv.完美地，无可非议地，彻底地

参考例句：

• The witnesses were each perfectly certain of what they said.证人们个个对自己所说的话十分肯定。
• Everything that we're doing is all perfectly above board.我们做的每件事情都是光明正大的。

2 tempted   

v.怂恿（某人）干不正当的事；冒…的险（tempt的过去分词）

参考例句：

• I was sorely tempted to complain, but I didn't. 我极想发牢骚，但还是没开口。
• I was tempted by the dessert menu. 甜食菜单馋得我垂涎欲滴。

3 retaliate   

v.报复，反击

参考例句：

• He sought every opportunity to retaliate against his enemy.他找机会向他的敌人反击。
• It is strictly forbidden to retaliate against the quality inspectors.严禁对质量检验人员进行打击报复。

4 provocation   

n.激怒，刺激，挑拨，挑衅的事物，激怒的原因

参考例句：

• He's got a fiery temper and flares up at the slightest provocation.他是火爆性子，一点就着。
• They did not react to this provocation.他们对这一挑衅未作反应。

5 wilt   

v.(使)植物凋谢或枯萎；(指人)疲倦，衰弱

参考例句：

• Golden roses do not wilt and will never need to be watered.金色的玫瑰不枯萎绝也不需要浇水。
• Several sleepless nights made him wilt.数个不眠之夜使他憔悴。

6 solidarity   

n.团结；休戚相关

参考例句：

• They must preserve their solidarity.他们必须维护他们的团结。
• The solidarity among China's various nationalities is as firm as a rock.中国各族人民之间的团结坚如磐石。

7 initiates   

v.开始( initiate的第三人称单数 )；传授；发起；接纳新成员

参考例句：

• The booklet initiates us into the problems of living abroad. 这本小册子使我们对国外的生活情况有了初步了解。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Everybody initiates and receives messages in some form or other. 每个人都以各种不同的方式发出并接收信息。 来自辞典例句

8 unemployed   

adj.失业的，没有工作的；未动用的，闲置的

参考例句：

• There are now over four million unemployed workers in this country.这个国家现有四百万失业人员。
• The unemployed hunger for jobs.失业者渴望得到工作。

9 frustrated   

adj.挫败的，失意的，泄气的v.使不成功( frustrate的过去式和过去分词 )；挫败；使受挫折；令人沮丧

参考例句：

• It's very easy to get frustrated in this job. 这个工作很容易令人懊恼。
• The bad weather frustrated all our hopes of going out. 恶劣的天气破坏了我们出行的愿望。 来自《简明英汉词典》

10 munitions   

n.军火，弹药；v.供应…军需品

参考例句：

• The army used precision-guided munitions to blow up enemy targets.军队用精确瞄准的枪炮炸掉敌方目标。
• He rose [made a career for himself] by dealing in munitions.他是靠贩卖军火发迹的。

11 bleak   

adj.(天气)阴冷的；凄凉的；暗淡的

参考例句：

• They showed me into a bleak waiting room.他们引我来到一间阴冷的会客室。
• The company's prospects look pretty bleak.这家公司的前景异常暗淡。

12 edgy   

adj.不安的；易怒的

参考例句：

• She's been a bit edgy lately,waiting for the exam results.她正在等待考试结果，所以最近有些焦躁不安。
• He was nervous and edgy, still chain-smoking.他紧张不安，还在一根接一根地抽着烟。

13 evading   

逃避( evade的现在分词 )； 避开； 回避； 想不出

参考例句：

• Segmentation of a project is one means of evading NEPA. 把某一工程进行分割，是回避《国家环境政策法》的一种手段。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法
• Too many companies, she says, are evading the issue. 她说太多公司都在回避这个问题。

14 radar   

n.雷达，无线电探测器

参考例句：

• They are following the flight of an aircraft by radar.他们正在用雷达追踪一架飞机的飞行。
• Enemy ships were detected on the radar.敌舰的影像已显现在雷达上。

15 deterrent   

n.阻碍物，制止物；adj.威慑的，遏制的

参考例句：

• Large fines act as a deterrent to motorists.高额罚款是对开车的人的制约。
• I put a net over my strawberries as a deterrent to the birds.我在草莓上罩了网，免得鸟歇上去。

16 awry   

adj.扭曲的，错的

参考例句：

• She was in a fury over a plan that had gone awry. 计划出了问题，她很愤怒。
• Something has gone awry in our plans.我们的计划出差错了。

17 corps   

n.(通信等兵种的)部队；(同类作的)一组

参考例句：

• The medical corps were cited for bravery in combat.医疗队由于在战场上的英勇表现而受嘉奖。
• When the war broke out,he volunteered for the Marine Corps.战争爆发时，他自愿参加了海军陆战队。

18 scrapped   

废弃(scrap的过去式与过去分词)； 打架

参考例句：

• This machine is so old that it will soon have to be scrapped. 这架机器太旧，快报废了。
• It had been thought that passport controls would be scrapped. 人们曾认为会放开护照管制。

19 apparently   

adv.显然地；表面上，似乎

参考例句：

• An apparently blind alley leads suddenly into an open space.山穷水尽，豁然开朗。
• He was apparently much surprised at the news.他对那个消息显然感到十分惊异。

20 indigenous   

adj.土产的，土生土长的，本地的

参考例句：

• Each country has its own indigenous cultural tradition.每个国家都有自己本土的文化传统。
• Indians were the indigenous inhabitants of America.印第安人是美洲的土著居民。

21 indigenously   

adv.本土

参考例句：

22 literally   

adv.照字面意义，逐字地；确实

参考例句：

• He translated the passage literally.他逐字逐句地翻译这段文字。
• Sometimes she would not sit down till she was literally faint.有时候，她不走到真正要昏厥了，决不肯坐下来。

23 undo   

vt.解开，松开；取消，撤销

参考例句：

• His pride will undo him some day.他的傲慢总有一天会毁了他。
• I managed secretly to undo a corner of the parcel.我悄悄地设法解开了包裹的一角。

24 procurement   

n.采购；获得

参考例句：

• He is in charge of the procurement of materials.他负责物资的采购。
• More and more,human food procurement came to have a dominant effect on their evolution.人类获取食物愈来愈显著地影响到人类的进化。

25 tortuous   

adj.弯弯曲曲的，蜿蜒的

参考例句：

• We have travelled a tortuous road.我们走过了曲折的道路。
• They walked through the tortuous streets of the old city.他们步行穿过老城区中心弯弯曲曲的街道。

26 balked   

v.畏缩不前，犹豫( balk的过去式和过去分词 )；（指马）不肯跑

参考例句：

• He balked in his speech. 他忽然中断讲演。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》
• They balked the robber's plan. 他们使强盗的计划受到挫败。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》

27 considerably   

adv.极大地；相当大地；在很大程度上

参考例句：

• The economic situation has changed considerably.经济形势已发生了相当大的变化。
• The gap has narrowed considerably.分歧大大缩小了。

28 capability   

n.能力；才能；(pl)可发展的能力或特性等

参考例句：

• She has the capability to become a very fine actress.她有潜力成为杰出演员。
• Organizing a whole department is beyond his capability.组织整个部门是他能力以外的事。

29 stunning   

adj.极好的；使人晕倒的

参考例句：

• His plays are distinguished only by their stunning mediocrity.他的戏剧与众不同之处就是平凡得出奇。
• The finished effect was absolutely stunning.完工后的效果非常美。

30 brawn   

n.体力

参考例句：

• In this job you need both brains and brawn.做这份工作既劳神又费力。
• They relied on brains rather than brawn.他们靠的是脑力，而不是体力。