2014年经济学人 德国经济 看工资

Germany's economy

Watching the wages

Germany's economy stutters, even if the fundamentals are strong

BLAMING Germany—or at least the austerity prescribed for the euro zone by Chancellor¹ Angela Merkel—for Europe's ills may be popular in France. But Germans are inclined, not without some pride, to see their economy as the strongest horse to pull the euro zone out of its misery². Hence the fear caused by a surprising update this month: real output shrank by a seasonally³ adjusted 0.2% in the second quarter from the first, and manufacturing by 1%.

Part of the explanation was statistical⁴. Thanks to a mild winter, there was more construction than usual in the first quarter. But geopolitical crises, especially in Ukraine, had a bigger impact. German exports to Russia have plummeted⁵. Given the timing⁶, the drop was due less to sanctions already imposed than to expectations of more to come. Russia accounts for only 3% of Germany's total trade, so the losses were easily made up in higher exports elsewhere. More devastating⁷ is the rising uncertainty⁸ over Russia that is causing managers to delay investment. Germany's Ifo business-climate index, a widely watched benchmark, fell in August.

Aside from such new risks, however, the underlying⁹ German economy still looks strong. The federal budget is close to balance. Unemployment remains¹⁰ low: indeed, labour shortages are an increasing problem. This applies to large businesses such as care for the elderly, but especially to many of the niches¹¹ for which Germany is famous, such as hearing-aid acoustics¹², according to the Cologne Institute for Economic Research.

Germany's best contribution to recovery in the euro zone would be to let wages rise. Whether they are already doing so will not become clear for months, because Germany reports the relevant statistics more slowly than most. But the willingness is there. In July Jens Weidmann, the president of the Bundesbank, Germany's notoriously hawkish¹³ central bank, caused a sensation by calling for pay rises of 3% on average. A new minimum wage should also nudge wages up. It will take effect in 2015 at 8.50 an hour, more than 40% of the median wage.

Rising German wages would represent the “natural Hume mechanism¹⁴ at work, but with euros instead of gold,” says Michael Burda, an economist¹⁵ at Berlin's Humboldt University. By this he means the process first described by David Hume in the 18th century, under which countries on the gold standard adjusted to imbalances not by letting currencies appreciate or depreciate¹⁶ but through rising or falling prices and wages. In effect, Mr Burda says, the euro zone has imposed a gold standard on its 18 members. Prices and wages are falling in several crisis countries. Germany could help by letting its wages rise—if it is willing to accommodate this. If not, there is a serious risk that deflation could take hold across the euro zone as a whole.

German firms certainly have plenty of leeway, after practising wage restraint for the past decade. Known as the sick man of Europe ten years ago, Germany underwent a set of wrenching¹⁷ labour-market reforms starting in 2003. Unions co-operated meekly¹⁸, often accepting wage rises below inflation and productivity growth. In effect, this was an internal devaluation that made exports more competitive, especially in sectors¹⁹ such as machines and chemicals, according to Karl Brenke at the German Institute for Economic Research in Berlin. The forgone²⁰ spending power by workers also depressed²¹ consumption. The combination led to huge trade surpluses.

Rising wages and consumption in Germany, if they are accepted, would partially²² reverse this trend. That would lead to smaller trade surpluses, as both the European Union and the Americans are demanding. The only other domestic lever is increased investment, both by the government and by companies, an area where Germany has been stingy in recent years. But because investing requires confidence, Russia is again proving a damper.

1 chancellor   

n.(英)大臣；法官；(德、奥)总理；大学校长

参考例句：

• They submitted their reports to the Chancellor yesterday.他们昨天向财政大臣递交了报告。
• He was regarded as the most successful Chancellor of modern times.他被认为是现代最成功的财政大臣。

2 misery   

n.痛苦，苦恼，苦难；悲惨的境遇，贫苦

参考例句：

• Business depression usually causes misery among the working class.商业不景气常使工薪阶层受苦。
• He has rescued me from the mire of misery.他把我从苦海里救了出来。

3 seasonally   

参考例句：

• The price of vegetables fluctuates seasonally. 蔬菜的价格随季节变动。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• They moved seasonally among various vegetation types to feed on plants that were flourishing. 它们还随着季节的变化而在各种类型植物之间迁移，以便吃那些茂盛的植物。 来自辞典例句

4 statistical   

adj.统计的，统计学的

参考例句：

• He showed the price fluctuations in a statistical table.他用统计表显示价格的波动。
• They're making detailed statistical analysis.他们正在做具体的统计分析。

5 plummeted   

v.垂直落下，骤然跌落( plummet的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• Share prices plummeted to an all-time low. 股票价格暴跌到历史最低点。
• A plane plummeted to earth. 一架飞机一头栽向地面。 来自《简明英汉词典》

6 timing   

n.时间安排，时间选择

参考例句：

• The timing of the meeting is not convenient.会议的时间安排不合适。
• The timing of our statement is very opportune.我们发表声明选择的时机很恰当。

7 devastating   

adj.毁灭性的，令人震惊的，强有力的

参考例句：

• It is the most devastating storm in 20 years.这是20年来破坏性最大的风暴。
• Affairs do have a devastating effect on marriages.婚外情确实会对婚姻造成毁灭性的影响。

8 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

9 underlying   

adj.在下面的，含蓄的，潜在的

参考例句：

• The underlying theme of the novel is very serious.小说隐含的主题是十分严肃的。
• This word has its underlying meaning.这个单词有它潜在的含义。

10 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

11 niches   

壁龛( niche的名词复数 )； 合适的位置[工作等]； （产品的）商机； 生态位（一个生物所占据的生境的最小单位）

参考例句：

• Some larvae extend the galleries to form niches. 许多幼虫将坑道延伸扩大成壁龛。
• In his view differences in adaptation are insufficient to create niches commensurate in number and kind. 按照他的观点，适应的差异不足以在数量上和种类上形成同量的小生境。

12 acoustics   

n.声学，(复)音响效果，音响装置

参考例句：

• The acoustics of the new concert hall are excellent.这座新音乐厅的音响效果极好。
• The auditorium has comfortable seating and modern acoustics.礼堂里有舒适的座椅和现代化的音响设备。

13 hawkish   

adj. 鹰派的, 强硬派的

参考例句：

• My staff's advice that first day was amazingly hawkish. 在第一天，我的僚属们的意见是令人吃惊的鹰派意见。
• Antiwar groups fear Barack Obama may create hawkish Cabinet. 反战团体担心巴拉克·奥巴马可以创建强硬派内阁。

14 mechanism   

n.机械装置；机构，结构

参考例句：

• The bones and muscles are parts of the mechanism of the body.骨骼和肌肉是人体的组成部件。
• The mechanism of the machine is very complicated.这台机器的结构是非常复杂的。

15 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

16 depreciate   

v.降价，贬值，折旧

参考例句：

• The computer value will depreciate by $ 500 in the first year.在头一年里这台电脑会贬值500美元。
• If you neglect this property,it will depreciate.如果你忽视这份资产，它无形中就贬值了。

17 wrenching   

n.修截苗根，苗木铲根（铲根时苗木不起土或部分起土）v.（猛力地）扭( wrench的现在分词 )；扭伤；使感到痛苦；使悲痛

参考例句：

• China has been through a wrenching series of changes and experiments. 中国经历了一系列艰苦的变革和试验。 来自辞典例句
• A cold gust swept across her exposed breast, wrenching her back to reality. 一股寒气打击她的敞开的胸膛，把她从梦幻的境地中带了回来。 来自汉英文学 - 家（1-26） - 家（1-26）

18 meekly   

adv.温顺地，逆来顺受地

参考例句：

• He stood aside meekly when the new policy was proposed. 当有人提出新政策时，他唯唯诺诺地站 来自《简明英汉词典》
• He meekly accepted the rebuke. 他顺从地接受了批评。 来自《简明英汉词典》

19 sectors   

n.部门( sector的名词复数 )；领域；防御地区；扇形

参考例句：

• Berlin was divided into four sectors after the war. 战后柏林分成了4 个区。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Industry and agriculture are the two important sectors of the national economy. 工业和农业是国民经济的两个重要部门。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

20 forgone   

v.没有也行，放弃( forgo的过去分词 )

参考例句：

• Tax expenditures are the revenues forgone due to preferential tax treatment. 税收支出是由于税收优惠待遇而放弃的收入。 来自互联网
• The alternative forgone is called the opportunity cost. 这种选择性的放弃就叫做机会成本。 来自互联网

21 depressed   

adj.沮丧的，抑郁的，不景气的，萧条的

参考例句：

• When he was depressed,he felt utterly divorced from reality.他心情沮丧时就感到完全脱离了现实。
• His mother was depressed by the sad news.这个坏消息使他的母亲意志消沉。

22 partially   

adv.部分地，从某些方面讲

参考例句：

• The door was partially concealed by the drapes.门有一部分被门帘遮住了。
• The police managed to restore calm and the curfew was partially lifted.警方设法恢复了平静，宵禁部分解除。