2016年经济学人 流行病 预防不足

 

Pandemics

流行病

An ounce of prevention

预防不足

Crises of infectious diseases are becoming more common. The world should be better prepared

传染病导致的危机已经越来越常见，世界应该做好更周全的准备

ONE of the sobering lessons of the Ebola crisis was how ill-prepared the world was for such a deadly disease. It is terrifying to reflect on how the virus's advance was halted in the teeming¹ city of Lagos thanks only to the heroism² of a single doctor and because the place just happened to have the expertise³ needed to trace all of the first victim's contacts. Today the world is facing a worrying outbreak of Zika virus, adding to a growing list of diseases that includes SARS, MERS and bird flu.

埃博拉危机让世界清醒地认识到，我们对于如此致命的疾病有多么的束手无策。细思恐极的是，当病毒在人声鼎沸的拉各斯肆虐时，唯一能暂缓疾病爆发的希望只能落在一名势单力薄“英雄医生”身上，而这一切不过是因为拉各斯刚好拥有能追溯到第一位患者病情恢复的医疗信息。如今，继SARS、中东呼吸系统综合征和禽流感之后，世界又面临着寨卡病毒的爆发，而这个名单还将越来越长。

This is the new normal. New infectious diseases are becoming more common. With more people on the planet, more roads and flights connecting everyone, and greater contact between humans and animals, this is only to be expected. Over half of the 1,400 known human pathogens have their origins in animals such as pigs, bats, chickens and other birds.

这是一个新常态。新型传染病变得越来越普遍。随着地球上人口日益增加，大量的公路和航班提升了各个地区的通达性，再加上人与动物的接触越来越多，这样的情形不可避免。人类已知的1400个病原体中，有一半以上都源自动物宿主，包括猪、蝙蝠、鸡和其他禽类。

Pandemics and pandemonium⁴

流行病与大混乱

When a new outbreak occurs, fear spreads even more rapidly than the virus. Politicians respond, rationally or not, with travel bans, quarantines or trade blocks. Airlines ground flights. Travellers cancel trips. Ebola has infected almost 30,000 people, killed more than 11,000 and cost more than $2 billion in lost output in the three hardest-hit countries. SARS infected 8,000 and killed 800; because it hit richer places, it cost more than $40 billion. Predicting these losses is hard, but a recent report on global health risks puts the expected economic losses from potential pandemics at around $60 billion a year.

当新的疫情爆发时，恐惧情绪传播的比病毒更快。政治家们做出各种合理或不合理的反映：禁止出行、检疫隔离和贸易封锁。航线暂停，旅行者们取消出游。埃博拉感染了超过3万人，致死1.1万人，疫情最严重的三个国家因此损失产值超20亿。SARS感染了8千人，致死800人，由于爆发在较发达地区，其造成的产值损失超过400亿。预测这些疾病导致的损失不容易，但最近一份关于全球健康危机的报告预计，潜在的流行病将导致每年约600亿的经济损失。

As the threat grows, so does the case for beefing up defences against disease. America's National Academy of Medicine suggests that just $4.5 billion a year (equivalent to about 3% of what rich countries spend on development aid) devoted⁵ to preparing for pandemics would make the world a lot safer. The money would strengthen public-health systems, improve co-ordination in an emergency and fund neglected areas of R&D.

随着危机不断升级，对疾病的防御也应同样加强。美国国家医学研究院表示每年仅需投入45亿美金（相当于富有国家花在发展援助上的3%）在流行疾病防控上，世界便会变得安全许多。资金的投入将会用于加强公共卫生体系，提高研发部门在应对突发情况以及资金短缺的协调性。

Many of the investments to prepare for pandemics would bring broader benefits, too. Stronger public-health systems would help fight such diseases as tuberculosis⁶, which reduces global GDP by $12 billion a year, and malaria⁷, which takes an even bigger toll⁸. But the priority should be to advance vaccines¹⁰ for diseases that are rare today, but which scientists know could easily become pandemics in the future: Lassa fever, say, Crimean Congo haemorrhagic fever or Marburg.

在流行疾病的防控上注入更多的投资会带来更多的好处。每年仅在防治肺结核病上，全球GDP减少了120亿美金，而疟疾则耗费更多。若公共健康体系建立完善，将有利于防治肺结核等疾病，但首要的是去研制疫苗去防治现今极其罕见，但又被科学家们声称今后极易大流行的疾病，比如拉沙热，克里米亚刚果出血热，或者马尔堡。

Better sharing of data would help (see article). More important is funding and a review of who has liability if firms rush vaccines or drugs to market. The initial development and early-stage testing of vaccines for the most likely future pandemics would cost roughly $150m each. Drug firms have little incentive¹¹ to invest in a vaccine⁹ that may never be used. For these firms even later-stage testing when a pandemic breaks out is tricky¹². The drug industry spent $1 billion on Ebola and took on liability risk, yet never made a profit. The same companies may not be so willing next time. To encourage drug firms to play their full part during an emergency, governments need to set out how they will share the burden.

若能更好地共享数据，那将会大有裨益（另见文）。更为重要的是提供资金，还有当公司把疫苗或者药品推向市场时需审查责任人。即便是未来爆发可能性最高的流行病的防控疫苗，在处于初步发展与早期检测阶段时，也要耗费大约1.5亿美金。因此医药公司没有动力去投资开发未来可能都不会被使用的疫苗。对于这些公司，一旦疫情爆发，后期的疫苗测试也很难对付。医药行业花费了10亿美金在埃博拉上，同时承担了责任风险，然而从未获利。没有公司会愿意亏本第二次。为了鼓励医药公司在疫情时期充分发挥自己的作用，政府需要明确自己将会如何替他们分担责任。

Since the financial crisis, banks have been required to hold more capital in order to lower the risk of economic contagion¹³. The world spends about $2 trillion annually¹⁴ on defence. Investing in health security is a similar form of insurance, but one with better returns.

自金融危机后，为了降低经济危机蔓延的风险，银行已被要求持有更多资本。全球每年共花去大约2万亿美金在防治疾病上面。在卫生安全上投资类似于购买保险，但是会取得更好的收益。

1 teeming   

adj.丰富的v.充满( teem的现在分词 )；到处都是；（指水、雨等）暴降；倾注

参考例句：

• The rain was teeming down. 大雨倾盆而下。
• the teeming streets of the city 熙熙攘攘的城市街道

2 heroism   

n.大无畏精神，英勇

参考例句：

• He received a medal for his heroism.他由于英勇而获得一枚奖章。
• Stories of his heroism resounded through the country.他的英雄故事传遍全国。

3 expertise   

n.专门知识(或技能等)，专长

参考例句：

• We were amazed at his expertise on the ski slopes.他斜坡滑雪的技能使我们赞叹不已。
• You really have the technical expertise in a new breakthrough.让你真正在专业技术上有一个全新的突破。

4 pandemonium   

n.喧嚣，大混乱

参考例句：

• The whole lobby was a perfect pandemonium,and the din was terrific.整个门厅一片嘈杂，而且喧嚣刺耳。
• I had found Adlai unperturbed in the midst of pandemonium.我觉得艾德莱在一片大混乱中仍然镇定自若。

5 devoted   

adj.忠诚的，忠实的，热心的，献身于...的

参考例句：

• He devoted his life to the educational cause of the motherland.他为祖国的教育事业贡献了一生。
• We devoted a lengthy and full discussion to this topic.我们对这个题目进行了长时间的充分讨论。

6 tuberculosis   

n.结核病，肺结核

参考例句：

• People used to go to special health spring to recover from tuberculosis.人们常去温泉疗养胜地治疗肺结核。
• Tuberculosis is a curable disease.肺结核是一种可治愈的病。

7 malaria   

n.疟疾

参考例句：

• He had frequent attacks of malaria.他常患疟疾。
• Malaria is a kind of serious malady.疟疾是一种严重的疾病。

8 toll   

n.过路(桥)费；损失，伤亡人数；v.敲(钟)

参考例句：

• The hailstone took a heavy toll of the crops in our village last night.昨晚那场冰雹损坏了我们村的庄稼。
• The war took a heavy toll of human life.这次战争夺去了许多人的生命。

9 vaccine   

n.牛痘苗，疫苗；adj.牛痘的，疫苗的

参考例句：

• The polio vaccine has saved millions of lives.脊髓灰质炎疫苗挽救了数以百万计的生命。
• She takes a vaccine against influenza every fall.她每年秋季接种流感疫苗。

10 vaccines   

疫苗，痘苗( vaccine的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• His team are at the forefront of scientific research into vaccines. 他的小组处于疫苗科研的最前沿。
• The vaccines were kept cool in refrigerators. 疫苗放在冰箱中冷藏。

11 incentive   

n.刺激；动力；鼓励；诱因；动机

参考例句：

• Money is still a major incentive in most occupations.在许多职业中，钱仍是主要的鼓励因素。
• He hasn't much incentive to work hard.他没有努力工作的动机。

12 tricky   

adj.狡猾的，奸诈的；(工作等)棘手的，微妙的

参考例句：

• I'm in a rather tricky position.Can you help me out?我的处境很棘手，你能帮我吗？
• He avoided this tricky question and talked in generalities.他回避了这个非常微妙的问题，只做了个笼统的表述。

13 contagion   

n.(通过接触的疾病)传染；蔓延

参考例句：

• A contagion of fear swept through the crowd.一种恐惧感在人群中迅速蔓延开。
• The product contagion effect has numerous implications for marketing managers and retailers.产品传染效应对市场营销管理者和零售商都有很多的启示。

14 annually   

adv.一年一次，每年

参考例句：

• Many migratory birds visit this lake annually.许多候鸟每年到这个湖上作短期逗留。
• They celebrate their wedding anniversary annually.他们每年庆祝一番结婚纪念日。