2016年经济学人 中国的消费大军 依旧活跃(下)

 

The dynamism of the mostly-private consumer sector¹ comes not from stimulus², argues Andy Rothman of Matthews Asia, an investment firm, but from strong income growth and low household debt. (Chinese household debt stands at about 40% of GDP, roughly half the level seen in America.) Real urban incomes rose by 5.8% in the first quarter. Willis Towers Watson, a consultancy, estimates that white-collar salaries are now significantly higher in China than in South-East Asia. That fuels a bristling³ optimism. A recent study by McKinsey, a consultancy, found that 55% of consumers in China are confident that their incomes will rise significantly over the next five years.

铭基亚洲（一家投资公司）的安迪·罗斯曼声称，私营化的消费者市场的活力并非源于刺激，而是来源于强劲上涨的收入和低额的家庭债务（中国的家庭债务占中国国内生产总值的40%，几乎仅是美国的一半）。第一季度城市居民收入增长了5.8%。Willis Towers Watson（一家全球咨询管理公司）预估中国白领的工资水平显著高于东南亚地区。这极大地增加了人们的信心。麦肯锡（咨询公司）近期的一项研究显示中国55%的消费者相信在未来的五年里他们的收入水平将再继续上涨。

Many big firms seem willing to look past current clouds over China's economy to brighter days ahead. Pepsi, an American snack-food firm, opened its first Quaker Oats manufacturing plant on the mainland in October, and has launched oat-based dairy drinks to cater⁴ to local tastes. It even hopes to introduce Pepsi-branded smartphones. McDonald's, an American hamburger chain, wants 1,250 outlets⁵ in the mainland over the next five years on top of the 2,200 it operates already.

很多大型公司都对中国当前阴云密布的经济持有乐观态度。百事（美国的零食企业）在十月份于大陆地区建立了第一个桂格燕麦的生产基地，并且为了迎合当地人的口味生产了特定的以燕麦为基础的牛奶饮品。这个公司甚至还想引进百事自家品牌的智能手机。麦当劳（美国汉堡连锁）在中国其已经拥有2200家店面的基础上，期望在未来的五年里再增加1250个店面。

America's Walt Disney, an entertainment colossus, is set to open Shanghai Disneyland in June. The $5.5 billion theme park is its biggest investment outside Florida. Keen to experience such wondrous⁶ novelties as Peking-duck-topped, Mickey-Mouse shaped pizza, Chinese families are now eagerly snapping up entry tickets online. Starbucks, an American coffee chain, plans to add 500 outlets this year in China, including one at the entrance of the new Disney park. Howard Schultz, its boss, predicts it will be “Starbucks' highest-grossing retail⁷ store overnight”.

迪士尼（美国娱乐公司巨头）在上海的乐园将于六月份正式投入使用，其投资额达55亿美元，是继在弗罗里达州的乐园之后投资的最大的乐园。那些中国家庭已经等不及要尝试新的体验，为了吃到有着米奇老鼠外形的，带有北京烤鸭的披萨，他们纷纷开始上网抢购门票。星巴克（美国额咖啡连锁）计划今年在中国继续投入500家店面，其中一家设于新的迪士尼乐园。其老总霍华德·舒尔茨预测“此处的星巴克会一夜成为有史以来营业额最高的店面。”

Firms such as these are betting on the continued rise of the affluent⁸ middle class. By 2020, the number of households earning above $24,000 per year is expected to double to 100m, making up 30% of all urban households. They are also betting on the frivolity⁹ of the free-spending young. Consumption is rising at 14% a year among under-35s, twice the level of frugal¹⁰ oldies. But above all, they are betting on the law of large numbers. A joint¹¹ study, by the Boston Consulting Group, another consultancy, and AliResearch, the research arm of Alibaba, predicts that even if economic growth falls to only 5.5% per year (well below official claims of nearly 7% a year now), China's consumer economy will expand over the next five years by some $2.3 trillion. Despite the deficiencies in economic forecasts, that incremental¹² gain would be bigger than the entire consumer economy in Britain or

Germany today.

这样的公司都将期望寄予中国富裕的的中产阶级的增加。到2020年，家庭年均收入达两万四千美元的数量将翻一番，达到一亿家，在所有的城市家庭中占比达30%。 他们还寄期望于那些挥霍无度的年轻人身上。35岁以下的消费年增长14%，是那些节俭的老一代人的两倍。但是除此以外，他们还寄期望与大数定律。一项由波士顿咨询公司和阿里研究所（阿里巴巴的研究分支）合作的研究预测即使中国的年经济增长率跌到5.5%（远低于现在官方公布的近7%的增长率），中国的消费将在未来的五年里继续扩张两万三千亿美元。即使中国的经济前景不济，但是消费经济依旧比如今的英国和德国要更具前景。

1 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。

2 stimulus   

n.刺激，刺激物，促进因素，引起兴奋的事物

参考例句：

• Regard each failure as a stimulus to further efforts.把每次失利看成对进一步努力的激励。
• Light is a stimulus to growth in plants.光是促进植物生长的一个因素。

3 bristling   

a.竖立的

参考例句：

• "Don't you question Miz Wilkes' word,'said Archie, his beard bristling. "威尔克斯太太的话，你就不必怀疑了。 "阿尔奇说。他的胡子也翘了起来。
• You were bristling just now. 你刚才在发毛。

4 cater   

vi.(for/to)满足，迎合；(for)提供饮食及服务

参考例句：

• I expect he will be able to cater for your particular needs.我预计他能满足你的特殊需要。
• Most schools cater for children of different abilities.大多数学校能够满足具有不同天资的儿童的需要。

5 outlets   

n.出口( outlet的名词复数 )；经销店；插座；廉价经销店

参考例句：

• The dumping of foreign cotton blocked outlets for locally grown cotton. 外国棉花的倾销阻滞了当地生产的棉花的销路。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• They must find outlets for their products. 他们必须为自己的产品寻找出路。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

6 wondrous   

adj.令人惊奇的，奇妙的；adv.惊人地；异乎寻常地；令人惊叹地

参考例句：

• The internal structure of the Department is wondrous to behold.看一下国务院的内部结构是很有意思的。
• We were driven across this wondrous vast land of lakes and forests.我们乘车穿越这片有着湖泊及森林的广袤而神奇的土地。

7 retail   

v./n.零售；adv.以零售价格

参考例句：

• In this shop they retail tobacco and sweets.这家铺子零售香烟和糖果。
• These shoes retail at 10 yuan a pair.这些鞋子零卖10元一双。

8 affluent   

adj.富裕的，富有的，丰富的，富饶的

参考例句：

• He hails from an affluent background.他出身于一个富有的家庭。
• His parents were very affluent.他的父母很富裕。

9 frivolity   

n.轻松的乐事，兴高采烈；轻浮的举止

参考例句：

• It was just a piece of harmless frivolity. 这仅是无恶意的愚蠢行为。
• Hedonism and frivolity will diffuse hell tnrough all our days. 享乐主义和轻薄浮佻会将地狱扩展到我们的整个日子之中。 来自辞典例句

10 frugal   

adj.节俭的，节约的，少量的，微量的

参考例句：

• He was a VIP,but he had a frugal life.他是位要人，但生活俭朴。
• The old woman is frugal to the extreme.那老妇人节约到了极点。

11 joint   

adj.联合的，共同的；n.关节，接合处；v.连接，贴合

参考例句：

• I had a bad fall,which put my shoulder out of joint.我重重地摔了一跤，肩膀脫臼了。
• We wrote a letter in joint names.我们联名写了封信。

12 incremental   

adj.增加的

参考例句：

• For logic devices, the incremental current gain is very important. 对于逻辑器件来说，提高电流增益是非常重要的。 来自辞典例句
• By using an incremental approach, the problems involving material or geometric nonlinearity have been solved. 借应用一种增量方法，已经解决了包括材料的或几何的非线性问题。 来自辞典例句