2016年经济学人 天气预报 欧洲人比美国人更擅长预测天气(上)

 

Science and technology Weather forecasting Continental¹ divide

科学技术 天气预报 差距

Europeans do not just talk about the weather more than Americans do.

欧洲人不仅比美国人更喜欢谈论天气，

They are better at forecasting it as well

而且也更擅长预测天气。

IT WAS far too small a victory to count as an equaliser.

美国目前的全球预报系统与欧洲中期天气预报中心的天气预报能力可谓平分秋色。

But cheers were still heard in American meteorological circles after the storm that hit the country's east coast last month left the city of New York mostly unscathed.

上月，一场暴风雪袭击了美国东海岸，纽约所受影响较小。对于这次暴风雪的预测，全球预报系统的准确度小占上风。

For more than two decades the Global Forecast System (GFS), the leading weather-prediction model produced in the United States, has been notably² less accurate than its chief competitor, published by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).

较之二者，全球预报系统所得成功虽微不足道，但美国气象界仍对此大呼叫好。全球预报系统是美国最为先进的天气预报模型，二十多年来，它发布的天气预测准确性显然落后于它的劲敌--欧洲中期天气预报中心。

Although this deficit³ went largely unnoticed for years, it was laid bare by Hurricane Sandy.

多年以来，公众对此差距几乎全然不知，但是飓风桑迪的袭击让人们注意到了二者的差距。

A week before that storm's landfall in 2012, the ECMWF predicted it would veer⁴ towards the coast while the GFS showed it remaining at sea.

三年前，在飓风桑迪登陆的一周前，欧洲中期天气预报中心预测飓风会径直朝沿海运动，但全球预报系统却预测它会停留在海面。

In response to this failure, America's Congress authorised 34m of extra money to spend on forecasting.

在这场对飓风桑迪的预测较量中全球预报系统失败了，为此美国国会批准了一笔数额高达340万美元的投资，用于升级全球预报系统。

A new version of the GFS went into operation on January 14th, and two weeks later it passed with flying colours.

1月14日，升级后的全球预报系统投入运行，仅两个星期后它就斩获成功。

On January 25th the ECMWF predicted that New York would, on the 27th, labour under 64cm (25 inches) of snow brought by the storm pictured above.

1月25日，欧洲中期天气预报中心预测纽约将在27日遭到暴雪袭击，城市积雪可达64英寸之厚。

The GFS suggested 18cm. That turned out to be far closer to the truth.

但全球预报系统却预报积雪厚度为18厘米，最后事实证明后者预测更为准确。

It is, however, too early for the Americans to celebrate.

全球预报系统升级之后牛刀小试便获成功，但美国人可别高兴得太早。

The GFS projection⁵ for the blizzard's western edge differed from the ECMWF's by 200km (120 miles)—a weather-forecasting hairs'-breadth.

全球预报系统对此次暴风雪的西部锋面长度与欧洲中期天气预报中心所得预测相差200公里，这个差值在本次预报中至关重要。

The only reason anyone noticed this discrepancy⁶ was that the gap happened to encompass⁷ the country's most populous⁸ city.

因为相差200公里的锋面却正好萦绕在了纽约这座美国最为繁华的都市上空，这引起了人们的注意。

This episode, moreover, may have been a fluke.

全球预报系统这次预报相对准确或为侥幸成功。

1 continental   

adj.大陆的，大陆性的，欧洲大陆的

参考例句：

• A continental climate is different from an insular one.大陆性气候不同于岛屿气候。
• The most ancient parts of the continental crust are 4000 million years old.大陆地壳最古老的部分有40亿年历史。

2 notably   

adv.值得注意地，显著地，尤其地，特别地

参考例句：

• Many students were absent,notably the monitor.许多学生缺席，特别是连班长也没来。
• A notably short,silver-haired man,he plays basketball with his staff several times a week.他个子明显较为矮小，一头银发，每周都会和他的员工一起打几次篮球。

3 deficit   

n.亏空，亏损；赤字，逆差

参考例句：

• The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事们报告赤字为250万美元。
• We have a great deficit this year.我们今年有很大亏损。

4 veer   

vt.转向，顺时针转，改变；n.转向

参考例句：

• He is unlikely to veer from his boss's strongly held views.他不可能背离他老板的强硬立场。
• If you fall asleep while driving,you'll probably veer off the road.假如你开车时打瞌睡，可能会驶离道路。

5 projection   

n.发射，计划，突出部分

参考例句：

• Projection takes place with a minimum of awareness or conscious control.投射在最少的知觉或意识控制下发生。
• The projection of increases in number of house-holds is correct.对户数增加的推算是正确的。

6 discrepancy   

n.不同；不符；差异；矛盾

参考例句：

• The discrepancy in their ages seemed not to matter.他们之间年龄的差异似乎没有多大关系。
• There was a discrepancy in the two reports of the accident.关于那次事故的两则报道有不一致之处。

7 encompass   

vt.围绕，包围；包含，包括；完成

参考例句：

• The course will encompass physics,chemistry and biology.课程将包括物理、化学和生物学。
• The project will encompass rural and underdeveloped areas in China.这项工程将覆盖中国的农村和不发达地区。

8 populous   

adj.人口稠密的，人口众多的

参考例句：

• London is the most populous area of Britain.伦敦是英国人口最稠密的地区。
• China is the most populous developing country in the world.中国是世界上人口最多的发展中国家。