2016年经济学人 德国的宏观审慎改革

 

German macroprudential reforms

德国的宏观审慎改革

Beware Teutonic caution

谨防日耳曼式谨小慎微

The Bundesbank should not exert its new clout¹ too zealously²

德国央行新令牌在握，切莫肆意呼风唤雨

THE European Central Bank (ECB) decided³ a year ago to hold this week’s monetary⁴-policy meeting in Barcelona, but the timing⁵ turned out to be perfect. Spain is in the crosshairs of the markets, not least because of budgetary overruns by regional governments such as Catalonia’s. And the contrasting economic fortunes of beaten-up Spain, where the jobless rate has reached 24%, and resilient Germany, where it is below 6%, exemplify the difficulty of finding the right monetary policy in a currency union of 17 members.

欧洲中央银行（ECB）早在一年前就决定了将于本周在巴塞罗那召开货币政策会议，现今看来，会议召开的恰是时候。现在的西班牙正处在市场的风口浪尖，特别是因为加泰罗尼亚等自治区政府的预算超支才导致了西班牙到了这般田地。同德国相比，西班牙经济死气沉沉，失业率飙升至24%；德国经济稳步反弹，失业率则低于6%。如此鲜明的对比恰也印证了，在这个由17名成员组成的货币区内制定出一项正确的货币政策确实不易。

The ECB’s meeting on May 3rd (after The Economist⁶ went to press) was not expected to change its monetary stance. Behind the scenes, however, there are acute tensions within its 23-strong governing council, made up of six board members and the heads of the 17 national central banks. In particular Jens Weidmann, the president of the powerful German Bundesbank, opposed the decision to cut interest rates to 1% in December, and frets⁷ about the adequacy of the collateral⁸ against which the ECB has lent so much money to banks in recent months.

货币政策会议在本期《经济学人》付梓之际尚未召开。预计欧洲央行不会在5月3日召开的会议上改变其货币政策。然而在幕后，各委员的意见却是针锋相对；欧洲央行管理委员会共由6名欧洲中央银行执行委员会成员和17名欧元区成员国央行行长组成，在这23人的委员会中，唯独德国联邦银行行长权利较大，而最为不满的人也正是他。早在去年12月，他就曾反对欧洲央行将利率下调至1%的决议，近几个月来，银行频频以抵押物换取欧洲央行贷款，更是引起了魏德曼对欧洲央行所持巨额资金抵押品的堪忧。

Among other things Germany’s top central banker wants to avoid a home replay of the credit and property boom whose excesses have been so harmful in Spain. Loose monetary policy makes him nervous about the possibility of a property bubble in Germany. After a long period when house prices fell and then stagnated⁹, they have picked up in the past couple of years (see chart). Homebuilding orders are up by a fifth on a year ago.

超额的信贷和过度繁荣房地产已经令西班牙元气大伤，德国央行行长也是极力避免在这两个领域步入其后尘。宽松的货币政策令魏德曼惴惴不安，唯恐低息环境滋生德国房地产泡沫。德国房价曾一度下跌，经过了漫长的萧条期后，终于在过去的几年里开始攀升（见上图）。房地产开发订单在一年前更是提升了五分之一。

Such anxiety looks premature¹⁰: house-price rises represent a thawing¹¹ in the property permafrost rather than a market on fire. But if Mr Weidmann is minded to take pre-emptive action, he will soon have the means to do so. At present the Bundesbank can preach about risks to financial stability but it cannot impose counter-measures such as setting higher capital requirements for banks or putting constraints¹² on specific types of lending such as mortgages. The authority for implementing¹³ these steps lies with BaFin, Germany’s bank supervisor¹⁴ (which is assisted on the ground by Bundesbank staff).

魏德曼的焦躁之态未免有点操之过急：房价攀升仅表示冰冻的房地产市场正逐步回暖，而非过热。但是，若魏德曼先生有先发制人之意，他不久就会拿到行事之器。联邦银行目前尚可大肆鼓吹金融稳定性的危险，但却不能将对抗措施强加于人——如调高银行的资本要求，或限制抵押贷款等特定贷款项目。上述措施能否顺利实施，取决于德国联邦金融监管局（BaFin）。而在实际操作中，这个德国的银行监管机构却是由联邦银行员工协助运转。

This will change under new proposals to set up a joint¹⁵ committee, which will have representatives from the finance ministry¹⁶ and BaFin, but which will give the Bundesbank the leading role and enable it to push through binding¹⁷ directives. The legislation won’t come into force until next year, but since it is designed to strengthen his hand, Mr Weidmann would probably be able to get his own way before then.

然而，建议成立联合委员会的新提案一经提出，形势又将大有不同。要成立联合委员会，须有财政部和监管局（BaFin）的代表参与；监管局（BaFin）代表加入委员会后必定会将大权递交至联邦银行手中，让提案突破约束指令顺利通过。可立法明年才会生效，但鉴于立法旨在坚固魏德曼的权力，魏先生也有可能在立法生效前为所欲为。

The reform is part of a general move to add “macroprudential” instruments to the toolkit of central banks, allowing them to choke off credit excesses while monetary policy is set for the economy as a whole. If anything, Germany is treading less far down this path than some other countries—in Britain, for example, the Bank of England will call the shots through a powerful new Financial Policy Committee, which has already started work. Such powers should be particularly useful in the euro area, providing countries with a national lever to pull if their banks are getting too festive¹⁸ (though Spain’s pre-crisis policy of “dynamic provisioning”, designed to get local banks to set aside more provisions in the good times, cautions against investing too much hope in macroprudential tools).

欧元区各大央行银行欲将“宏观审慎”工具纳入自己的政策工具包，上述改革不过是银行扩充工具包大行动的一部分而已。这样一来，一旦欧洲央行制定的货币政策适合于整个欧元区，各成员国央行银行便可用它来抑制信贷超额。德国的改革远不如其他国家进行的彻底，举英国为例，英国央行就已借助强大的新金融政策委员会开始宏观审慎监管。西班牙对过多寄希望于宏观审慎手段持谨慎态度，特意制定了一项“动态准备金”预防制度，该制度要求地方银行在经济形势大好时大量计提准备金。尽管如此，在欧元区使用“宏观审慎”还是尤为有效，欧元区国家可在信贷过热时，利用这一操纵杠杆对银行进行控制。

But in the current climate there is also the danger that such regulations may be used in bigger economies to grab back power from the ECB. By reducing credit availability national central banks can contravene¹⁹ the euro zone’s wider monetary stance. Speaking in New York in late April Mr Weidmann said that if monetary policy becomes too expansionary for his home country, “Germany has to deal with this using other, national instruments.” If Mr Weidmann does use his new powers overzealously that could dash one of the few remaining hopes for the hard-hit peripheral²⁰ economies: a strong recovery in the euro area, led by Germany.

然而就目前形势而言，更大的经济体为了从欧洲央行手中夺回更多权力，可能会采用“动态准备金”政策。而削减各成员国央行的信贷可获量又有违欧元区的整体货币政策。魏德曼先生上个月在纽约表示，如果欧洲央行的货币政策对德国而言过于宽松，“德国将不得不运用其他国家政策工具来抵消影响。” 欧元区边缘经济体饱受摧残，寄希冀于德国，期待德国能领导欧元区强势反弹。如果魏德曼真用新权力呼风唤雨，则会将这些经济体推向绝望深渊。 

1 clout   

n.用手猛击；权力，影响力

参考例句：

• The queen may have privilege but she has no real political clout.女王有特权，但无真正的政治影响力。
• He gave the little boy a clout on the head.他在那小男孩的头部打了一下。

2 zealously   

adv.热心地；热情地；积极地；狂热地

参考例句：

• Of course the more unpleasant a duty was, the more zealously Miss Glover performed it. 格洛弗小姐越是对她的职责不满意，她越是去积极执行它。 来自辞典例句
• A lawyer should represent a client zealously within the bounds of the law. 律师应在法律范围内热忱为当事人代理。 来自口语例句

3 decided   

adj.决定了的，坚决的；明显的，明确的

参考例句：

• This gave them a decided advantage over their opponents.这使他们比对手具有明显的优势。
• There is a decided difference between British and Chinese way of greeting.英国人和中国人打招呼的方式有很明显的区别。

4 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

5 timing   

n.时间安排，时间选择

参考例句：

• The timing of the meeting is not convenient.会议的时间安排不合适。
• The timing of our statement is very opportune.我们发表声明选择的时机很恰当。

6 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

7 frets   

基质间片； 品丝（吉他等指板上定音的）( fret的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The river frets away the rocks along its banks. 河水侵蚀了两岸的岩石。
• She frets at even the slightest delays. 稍有延误她就不满。

8 collateral   

adj.平行的；旁系的；n.担保品

参考例句：

• Many people use personal assets as collateral for small business loans.很多人把个人财产用作小额商业贷款的抵押品。
• Most people here cannot borrow from banks because they lack collateral.由于拿不出东西作为抵押，这里大部分人无法从银行贷款。

9 stagnated   

v.停滞，不流动，不发展( stagnate的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• The balloting had stagnated, he couldn't win. 投票工作陷于停顿，他不能得胜。 来自辞典例句
• His mind has stagnated since his retirement. 他退休后头脑迟钝了。 来自辞典例句

10 premature   

adj.比预期时间早的；不成熟的，仓促的

参考例句：

• It is yet premature to predict the possible outcome of the dialogue.预言这次对话可能有什么结果为时尚早。
• The premature baby is doing well.那个早产的婴儿很健康。

11 thawing   

n.熔化，融化v.（气候）解冻( thaw的现在分词 )；（态度、感情等）缓和；（冰、雪及冷冻食物）溶化；软化

参考例句：

• The ice is thawing. 冰在融化。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》
• It had been snowing and thawing and the streets were sloppy. 天一直在下雪，雪又一直在融化，街上泥泞不堪。 来自英汉文学 - 嘉莉妹妹

12 constraints   

强制( constraint的名词复数 )； 限制； 约束

参考例句：

• Data and constraints can easily be changed to test theories. 信息库中的数据和限制条件可以轻易地改变以检验假设。 来自英汉非文学 - 科学史
• What are the constraints that each of these imply for any design? 这每种产品的要求和约束对于设计意味着什么？ 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓

13 implementing   

v.实现( implement的现在分词 )；执行；贯彻；使生效

参考例句：

• -- Implementing a comprehensive drug control strategy. ――实行综合治理的禁毒战略。 来自汉英非文学 - 白皮书
• He was in no hurry about implementing his unshakable principle. 他并不急于实行他那不可动摇的原则。 来自辞典例句

14 supervisor   

n.监督人，管理人，检查员，督学，主管，导师

参考例句：

• Between you and me I think that new supervisor is a twit.我们私下说，我认为新来的主管人是一个傻瓜。
• He said I was too flighty to be a good supervisor.他说我太轻浮不能成为一名好的管理员。

15 joint   

adj.联合的，共同的；n.关节，接合处；v.连接，贴合

参考例句：

• I had a bad fall,which put my shoulder out of joint.我重重地摔了一跤，肩膀脫臼了。
• We wrote a letter in joint names.我们联名写了封信。

16 ministry   

n.(政府的)部；牧师

参考例句：

• They sent a deputation to the ministry to complain.他们派了一个代表团到部里投诉。
• We probed the Air Ministry statements.我们调查了空军部的记录。

17 binding   

有约束力的，有效的，应遵守的

参考例句：

• The contract was not signed and has no binding force. 合同没有签署因而没有约束力。
• Both sides have agreed that the arbitration will be binding. 双方都赞同仲裁具有约束力。

18 festive   

adj.欢宴的，节日的

参考例句：

• It was Christmas and everyone was in festive mood.当时是圣诞节，每个人都沉浸在节日的欢乐中。
• We all wore festive costumes to the ball.我们都穿着节日的盛装前去参加舞会。

19 contravene   

v.违反，违背，反驳，反对

参考例句：

• The moves contravene the peace plan agreed by both sides.这些举措违反了双方同意的和平方案。
• He said the article did not contravene the industry's code of conduct.他说这一条款并未违反行业的行为准则。

20 peripheral   

adj.周边的，外围的

参考例句：

• We dealt with the peripheral aspects of a cost reduction program.我们谈到了降低成本计划的一些外围问题。
• The hotel provides the clerk the service and the peripheral traveling consultation.旅舍提供票务服务和周边旅游咨询。