2016年经济学人 德国大众 征服全世界(下)

 

VW bet on China nearly 30 years ago. Now it is the world’s biggest car market and VW has 18% of it, through two joint¹ ventures. They sell 2m vehicles a year and plan to double this by 2018. A glut² of cheap cars is hurting prices in China but VW’s premium³ models are doing well the group’s share of its Chinese ventures’ profits rose from 1.9 billion in 2010 to 2.6 billion last year. VW has long been big in Brazil (market share 22%), and is expanding fast in Russia (9%). The weakest BRIC in its wall is India, where its share is less than 5%. Suzuki, whose affiliate⁴ Maruti Suzuki has almost 50% of the Indian market, should have been the perfect partner there.

大众在中国落户已30年有余，如今中国是全球最大的汽车销售市场，大众公司通过在华的两家合资企业，占中国市场的18%。在华每年卖出200万辆汽车，并计划在2018年将此销售量翻番。虽然由于市场供过于求。廉价车价受到打压，但大众高档车型销量却未受影响——集团在两家中国合资公司的股份从2010年的19万亿欧元，上升至2011年的26万亿欧元。大众长期主宰巴西市场（市场份额22%），并在俄罗斯迅速扩张（9%）。印度是大众在金砖四国中势力最薄弱的一国，大众在该地的市场份额仅占不到5%，而铃木的旗下的玛鲁蒂铃木却占有印度近50%的市场。铃木本应成为大众开拓印度市场的完美伙伴。

The “Beetlemania” that VW enjoyed in America in the 1960s, when its Beetle⁵ was the pioneer of smaller, cheaper cars, faded in the 1970s. Decades of weak sales and losses ensued. VW closed its Pennsylvania factory in 1988 because the cars it made were lousy. It tried importing from Mexico but couldn’t make this pay. Now, with a big new plant in Chattanooga, Tennessee, a revamped dealer⁶ network and the successful launch of the new Jetta, a family saloon, VW is back on a roll in America. Its sales there rose by 23% last year to 444,000, and its aim of selling 1m cars by 2018 looks achievable. However, VW’s quality ratings in America remain well below average, according to surveys by J.D. Power.

19世纪60年代，大众在美国掀起一股“甲壳虫热潮”，公司推出的甲壳虫系列开创了小型廉价轿车时代。70年代，热潮消退，销售疲软和亏损接踵而至。大众不得不在1988年因产品质量问题，关闭了宾夕法尼亚的车厂。公司曾尝试从墨西哥进口成品车，但却入不敷出。现在，大众在田纳西州的查特努加市开设新厂，改进了经销商网络，并在新家用杰塔轿车的发行上大获成功，以此宣告重回美国市场。去年，大众在美国的销量为44.4万辆，上涨了23%，如此看来，大众2018年售出1百万辆汽车的销售目标触手可得。然而，据J.D. Power的调研显示，大众汽车的质量评分在依旧远低于美国平均水平。

Like BMW, another admired German carmaker, VW seems to have succeeded because it is run by petrolheads. Mr Piech’s passion for engineering pervades⁷ the group. He is the strategist; Mr Winterkorn the get-things-done guy. Hans-Dieter Petsch, the chief financial officer, has helped a lot by controlling costs, says Max Warburton of Sanford C. Bernstein, an investment bank. VW’s other chiefs enjoy considerable freedom—unless they incur⁹ the chairman’s wrath¹⁰.

同德国另一家享有盛名的汽车制造商宝马公司一样，大众今天的成就或许是因为领导人都是车迷。皮耶希先生对汽车工程的热情遍及整个大众集团，他是出谋策划的策略家。文德恩先生是落实计划的实干者。首席财务官汉斯-迪特·珀奇则控制开支为公司贡献良多，投资银行桑福德-伯恩斯坦公司的马克思·沃伯顿评论道。除非大众的其他总裁惹怒了主席，他们还是能够享受的相当大的自由。

For all VW’s success, it is rare to hear people outside the firm praising the “Volkswagen Way” as they once lauded¹¹ the “Toyota Production System”. VW has ignored Toyota’s obsession¹² with the production line, says Mr Warburton, and concentrated on saving costs through parts-sharing between models. It has managed to preserve a culture of permanent innovation and a willingness to take risks. If there is a Volkswagen Way, it is to be determined¹³, diligent¹⁴ and attentive¹⁵ to detail, with a glint of ruthlessness.

大众虽取得成功，但鲜有外人像当初称赞“丰田生产模式”那样赞扬“大众模式”。文德恩先生说，同丰田不同，大众并不迷恋生产线，而是注重通过不同车型间的零部件共享来节约成本。大众成功的保存着永久创新和勇于冒险的企业文化。如果真有大众模式可言，那必定是勤奋果断，在专注细节中带有一丝无情。

Still, plenty could go wrong. Toyota captured the top spot from GM in 2008, only to stumble on quality as it rushed for quantity. VW’s shared platforms make it vulnerable if one of them turns out to be flawed.

可能出差错的地方还有很多。2008年，丰田从通用手中夺过头名，怎料却在急于提高数量时，被质量所羁绊。如果大众生产的某一车型出现缺陷，那么公司所使用的共享平台会使大众集团变得不堪一击。

Sprawl¹⁶ and loss of focus are another risk. Take the SEAT brand, for instance, which lost 225m last year. What is it for Mr Winterkorn describes it as VW’s “sporty, design-oriented” brand for young people. But how does SEAT’s new Toledo, which VW describes as “a practical, top-quality and affordable¹⁷ car for the whole family”, fit that image If VW already has one brand too many, SEAT is it.

无计划的扩展和缺乏中心目标是另一种风险。以西亚特品牌为例，该品牌去年亏损2.25亿欧元。缘何至此？文德恩先生将其描述为大众旗下的一款专为年轻人设计的以“运动性和设计感为导向”的品牌。但是西亚特新推出的Toledo却被描述为“一款实用质优的家庭适用车”，这又该如何匹配西亚特先前的描述？若说大众的某一品牌已略显多余，那必是西亚特。

An earlier growth spurt¹⁸, during Mr Piech’s time as chief executive, led to VW’s brands churning out lots of competing models while overlooking popular new trends, such as the “compact multipurpose vehicle” pioneered by Renault with its Scenic¹⁹. Upper-end Volkswagens and Skodas are now competing with lower-end Audis. SEATs, Skodas and VWs have different images but much in common under the hood²⁰. Relying on buyers’ brand loyalty²¹ has worked so far, but for how long Procter & Gamble, which is to toiletries what VW is to cars, stumbled after “taking on every competitor in every category in every region of the world at once,” as an analyst²² put it in The Economistlast week. That seems to be what VW is doing now.

在皮耶希先生担任首席执行官时，大众早期生意急剧增长，导致大众旗下的品牌大量炮制对手车型，却忽视了紧随流行新趋势，例如雷诺公司就以雷诺风景引领紧凑型多功能车的发展。大众和斯柯达旗下的高端车型现今正与奥迪旗下的低端车型同台竞技。西亚特，斯柯达以及大众的汽车虽外形不同，但内在结构却极为相似。大众集团依靠消费者对品牌的忠诚度一路走到现在，可这样又能走多远？正如某分析师在上周发行的《经济学人》提出的那样，大众公司在汽车业的地位就如宝洁公司在化妆品业的地位，宝洁公司在“一次性同全球各地，所有种类的竞争对手较量”后开始蹒跚而行，大众似乎正在复制宝洁的旧路。

VW is so big in China that it would be vulnerable to a downturn there. Likewise in Brazil, where its Chinese rivals are starting to encroach. And VW has a closer challenger in its rear-view mirror Hyundai-Kia, which is pushing upmarket while continuing to churn out small, good-value motors. It has around half of its home market in South Korea, is ahead of VW with a 9% share in America and is making inroads in Europe and emerging markets. And unlike VW, it does not have a profusion²³ of brands to support.

大众公司在中国的业务做的如此之大，一旦中国经济开始衰退，大众将会很容易受影响。在巴西亦如此，大众的中国对手正着手同其争夺巴西市场。而且还有一位挑战者紧随大众身后：韩国现代汽车公司在大量生产物美价廉的小型车时，还在转攻高端市场。现代公司占据了南韩本土市场的近二分之一，在美国则以9%的市场份额领先于大众，并且现代公司正准备进军欧洲市场和新兴市场。而同大众不同，现代公司旗下没有大量的品牌来支持自己。

If the euro falls apart, VW’s German factories will suddenly find their costs denominated in expensive Deutschmarks. That cosy²⁴ relationship with Lower Saxony (whose blocking stake the European Commission is seeking to remove) might become a burden if VW needed to make swift cuts to maintain profitability. If circumstances require a change of direction, the monoculture at the top of VW may react slowly. With so many executives close to retirement—Mr Piech is 75 and Mr Winterkorn 65—succession is another worry.

如果欧元瓦解，大众在德国的工厂将突然发现，他们的生产成本将会以昂贵的德国马克计算。若大众想大刀阔斧削减开支以维持盈利，那么它同下萨克森州之间的亲密关系将成为负担（欧洲委员会正试图转移州政府持有的拦截性股权）。如果形势逼迫大众改变方向，大众高层单一的文化又有可能反应迟缓。皮耶希先生现年75岁，文德恩先生65岁，大众公司诸多执行官年近退休，继任者又是另一个令人担忧的问题。

However, such problems are hypothetical. As VW drives relentlessly²⁵ towards world domination, Bernstein’s Mr Warburton says that Mr Piech “will go down in history as an automotive legend, in the same class as Gottlieb Daimler, Henry Ford⁸ and Kiichiro Toyoda.”

不管怎样，上述问题纯属假设。伯恩斯坦的沃伯顿先生称，当大众毫不留情的驶向世界顶端统治全球时，皮耶希先生“将同戈特利布·戴姆勒，亨利-福特及丰田喜一郎，作为汽车界的传奇人物名留青史。”

1 joint   

adj.联合的，共同的；n.关节，接合处；v.连接，贴合

参考例句：

• I had a bad fall,which put my shoulder out of joint.我重重地摔了一跤，肩膀脫臼了。
• We wrote a letter in joint names.我们联名写了封信。

2 glut   

n.存货过多，供过于求；v.狼吞虎咽

参考例句：

• The glut of coffee led to a sharp drop in prices.咖啡供过于求道致价格急剧下跌。
• There's a glut of agricultural products in Western Europe.西欧的农产品供过于求。

3 premium   

n.加付款；赠品；adj.高级的；售价高的

参考例句：

• You have to pay a premium for express delivery.寄快递你得付额外费用。
• Fresh water was at a premium after the reservoir was contaminated.在水库被污染之后，清水便因稀而贵了。

4 affiliate   

vt.使隶(附)属于；n.附属机构，分公司

参考例句：

• Our New York company has an affiliate in Los Angeles.我们的纽约公司在洛杉矶有一个下属企业。
• What is the difference between affiliate and regular membership?固定会员和附属会员之间的区别是什么？

5 beetle   

n.甲虫，近视眼的人

参考例句：

• A firefly is a type of beetle.萤火虫是一种甲虫。
• He saw a shiny green beetle on a leaf.我看见树叶上有一只闪闪发光的绿色甲虫。

6 dealer   

n.商人，贩子

参考例句：

• The dealer spent hours bargaining for the painting.那个商人为购买那幅画花了几个小时讨价还价。
• The dealer reduced the price for cash down.这家商店对付现金的人减价优惠。

7 pervades   

v.遍及，弥漫( pervade的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• An unpleasant smell pervades the house. 一种难闻的气味弥漫了全屋。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• An atmosphere of pessimism pervades the economy. 悲观的气氛笼罩着整个经济。 来自辞典例句

8 Ford   

n.浅滩，水浅可涉处；v.涉水，涉过

参考例句：

• They were guarding the bridge,so we forded the river.他们驻守在那座桥上，所以我们只能涉水过河。
• If you decide to ford a stream,be extremely careful.如果已决定要涉过小溪，必须极度小心。

9 incur   

vt.招致，蒙受，遭遇

参考例句：

• Any costs that you incur will be reimbursed in full.你的所有花费都将全额付还。
• An enterprise has to incur certain costs and expenses in order to stay in business.一个企业为了维持营业,就不得不承担一定的费用和开支。

10 wrath   

n.愤怒，愤慨，暴怒

参考例句：

• His silence marked his wrath. 他的沉默表明了他的愤怒。
• The wrath of the people is now aroused. 人们被激怒了。

11 lauded   

v.称赞，赞美( laud的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• They lauded the former president as a hero. 他们颂扬前总统为英雄。 来自辞典例句
• The nervy feats of the mountaineers were lauded. 登山者有勇气的壮举受到赞美。 来自辞典例句

12 obsession   

n.困扰，无法摆脱的思想(或情感)

参考例句：

• I was suffering from obsession that my career would be ended.那时的我陷入了我的事业有可能就此终止的困扰当中。
• She would try to forget her obsession with Christopher.她会努力忘记对克里斯托弗的迷恋。

13 determined   

adj.坚定的；有决心的

参考例句：

• I have determined on going to Tibet after graduation.我已决定毕业后去西藏。
• He determined to view the rooms behind the office.他决定查看一下办公室后面的房间。

14 diligent   

adj.勤勉的，勤奋的

参考例句：

• He is the more diligent of the two boys.他是这两个男孩中较用功的一个。
• She is diligent and keeps herself busy all the time.她真勤快，一会儿也不闲着。

15 attentive   

adj.注意的，专心的；关心(别人)的，殷勤的

参考例句：

• She was very attentive to her guests.她对客人招待得十分周到。
• The speaker likes to have an attentive audience.演讲者喜欢注意力集中的听众。

16 sprawl   

vi.躺卧，扩张，蔓延；vt.使蔓延；n.躺卧，蔓延

参考例句：

• In our garden,bushes are allowed to sprawl as they will.在我们园子里，灌木丛爱怎么蔓延就怎么蔓延。
• He is lying in a sprawl on the bed.他伸开四肢躺在床上。

17 affordable   

adj.支付得起的，不太昂贵的

参考例句：

• The rent for the four-roomed house is affordable.四居室房屋的房租付得起。
• There are few affordable apartments in big cities.在大城市中没有几所公寓是便宜的。

18 spurt   

v.喷出；突然进发；突然兴隆

参考例句：

• He put in a spurt at the beginning of the eighth lap.他进入第八圈时便开始冲刺。
• After a silence, Molly let her anger spurt out.沉默了一会儿，莫莉的怒气便迸发了出来。

19 scenic   

adj.自然景色的，景色优美的

参考例句：

• The scenic beauty of the place entranced the visitors.这里的美丽风光把游客们迷住了。
• The scenic spot is on northwestern outskirts of Beijing.这个风景区位于北京的西北远郊。

20 hood   

n.头巾，兜帽，覆盖；v.罩上，以头巾覆盖

参考例句：

• She is wearing a red cloak with a hood.她穿着一件红色带兜帽的披风。
• The car hood was dented in.汽车的发动机罩已凹了进去。

21 loyalty   

n.忠诚，忠心

参考例句：

• She told him the truth from a sense of loyalty.她告诉他真相是出于忠诚。
• His loyalty to his friends was never in doubt.他对朋友的一片忠心从来没受到怀疑。

22 analyst   

n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家

参考例句：

• What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
• The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。

23 profusion   

n.挥霍；丰富

参考例句：

• He is liberal to profusion.他挥霍无度。
• The leaves are falling in profusion.落叶纷纷。

24 cosy   

adj.温暖而舒适的，安逸的

参考例句：

• We spent a cosy evening chatting by the fire.我们在炉火旁聊天度过了一个舒适的晚上。
• It was so warm and cosy in bed that Simon didn't want to get out.床上温暖而又舒适，西蒙简直不想下床了。

25 relentlessly   

adv.不屈不挠地；残酷地；不间断

参考例句：

• The African sun beat relentlessly down on his aching head. 非洲的太阳无情地照射在他那发痛的头上。
• He pursued her relentlessly, refusing to take 'no' for an answer. 他锲而不舍地追求她，拒不接受“不”的回答。