2020年经济学人 妙招还是蠢招--美国暗杀伊朗将领(3)

Still more threatening is Iran’s nuclear programme. Mr Trump¹ pulled America out of the agreement with Iran, signed in 2015 with six world powers, which limited its ability to get a bomb. He argued that he would be able to negotiate a better deal which also took in Iran’s non-nuclear regional activities—a proposal he repeated in his press conference this week. Last summer there was speculation² that Iran was ready to talk. But that now seems out of the question, possibly for a long time. Indeed, on January 5th Iran said it would no longer abide³ by any restrictions⁴ on the enrichment of uranium. It has every reason to indulge in nuclear brinkmanship not only as a bargaining counter against America, but also because, were Iran to get the bomb, it would permanently⁵ oblige America to change its calculations about using military force against it.

更有威胁性的是伊朗的核计划。特朗普让美国退出了与伊朗的协议，该协议是2015年与六个世界大国签署的，限制了伊朗获得核弹的能力。他认为他能够通过谈判达成一项更好的协议，同时也包括伊朗的无核地区活动——他在本周的新闻发布会上重复了这一提议。去年夏天，有人猜测伊朗准备谈判。但现在看来，这是不可能的，可能很长一段时间都不可能。事实上，1月5日，伊朗表示将不再遵守任何限制铀浓缩的规定。它完全有理由沉迷于核边缘政策，这不仅是美国讨价还价的筹码，也是因为，如果伊朗获得核弹，它将永久迫使美国改变对其使用武力的计划。

The lack of an American strategy for negotiation⁶ means that the general’s killing⁷ has reduced America’s Iran policy to extreme sanctions accompanied by an ill-defined threat of massive retaliation⁸ if the regime misbehaves. Yet, starving Iran into submission⁹ is unlikely to work—other regimes have resisted American pressure for longer. There is no path to the peace Mr Trump this week said he wanted. Indeed, because America’s red lines are unclear, the danger of blundering into war remains¹⁰.

由于缺乏美国的谈判策略，这位将军的死意味着美国对伊朗的政策将会受到极端的制裁，同时如果伊朗政权行为不端，美国还会威胁进行大规模的报复。然而，让伊朗忍饥挨饿以使其屈服是不太可能奏效的——其他政权抵制美国压力的时间更长。特朗普本周表示，他想要的和平之路是不存在的。事实上，由于美国的红线还不明确，美国陷入战争的危险依然存在。

Meanwhile, sanctions and deterrence¹¹ will gradually become less potent¹², because they always do. If America wants its approach to be sustained, the price could well be repeated rounds of sanctions buttressed¹³ by sustained military counters to Iranian aggression—and an aerial campaign if Iran appears about to get the bomb. Is Mr Trump prepared for that? Are his successors?

与此同时，制裁和威慑的效力将逐渐减弱，因为它们总是如此。如果美国希望自己的做法能够持续下去，其代价很可能是在对伊朗侵略的持续军事反击的支持下，对伊朗实施一轮又一轮的制裁——如果伊朗似乎要获得核弹，就会发动空袭。特朗普准备好了吗？他的继任者们准备好了吗？

The wrong place at the wrong time

在错误的时间，错误的地点

Both Barack Obama and Mr Trump realised that turmoil¹⁴ in the Middle East consumes American resources and attention that would be better focused on Asia. Mr Obama tried to negotiate his way out of the region and failed. Mr Trump is trying to bully¹⁵ his way out instead, but he is likely to fail, too—because his strategy towards the regime in Tehran depends on America being present in the Middle East to contain Iran and maintain deterrence. The dramatic assassination¹⁶ of General Suleimani may look like a gamble that has paid off in the short term. Unfortunately, it has not solved America’s Iran problem.

巴拉克?奥巴马和特朗普都意识到，中东的动荡消耗了美国的资源和注意力，而这些资源和注意力更应该集中在亚洲。奥巴马曾试图通过谈判走出该地区，但以失败告终。特朗普正试图以恐吓的方式摆脱困境，但他也可能失败——因为他对德黑兰政权的战略依赖于美国在中东的存在，以遏制伊朗并保持威慑。对苏莱曼尼将军的戏剧性暗杀可能看起来像是一场赌博，在短期内获得了回报。不幸的是，这并没有解决美国的伊朗问题。

1 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

2 speculation   

n.思索，沉思；猜测；投机

参考例句：

• Her mind is occupied with speculation.她的头脑忙于思考。
• There is widespread speculation that he is going to resign.人们普遍推测他要辞职。

3 abide   

vi.遵守；坚持；vt.忍受

参考例句：

• You must abide by the results of your mistakes.你必须承担你的错误所造成的后果。
• If you join the club,you have to abide by its rules.如果你参加俱乐部，你就得遵守它的规章。

4 restrictions   

约束( restriction的名词复数 )； 管制； 制约因素； 带限制性的条件（或规则）

参考例句：

• I found the restrictions irksome. 我对那些限制感到很烦。
• a snaggle of restrictions 杂乱无章的种种限制

5 permanently   

adv.永恒地，永久地，固定不变地

参考例句：

• The accident left him permanently scarred.那次事故给他留下了永久的伤疤。
• The ship is now permanently moored on the Thames in London.该船现在永久地停泊在伦敦泰晤士河边。

6 negotiation   

n.谈判，协商

参考例句：

• They closed the deal in sugar after a week of negotiation.经过一星期的谈判，他们的食糖生意成交了。
• The negotiation dragged on until July.谈判一直拖到7月份。

7 killing   

n.巨额利润；突然赚大钱，发大财

参考例句：

• Investors are set to make a killing from the sell-off.投资者准备清仓以便大赚一笔。
• Last week my brother made a killing on Wall Street.上个周我兄弟在华尔街赚了一大笔。

8 retaliation   

n.报复，反击

参考例句：

• retaliation against UN workers 对联合国工作人员的报复
• He never said a single word in retaliation. 他从未说过一句反击的话。 来自《简明英汉词典》

9 submission   

n.服从，投降；温顺，谦虚；提出

参考例句：

• The defeated general showed his submission by giving up his sword.战败将军缴剑表示投降。
• No enemy can frighten us into submission.任何敌人的恐吓都不能使我们屈服。

10 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

11 deterrence   

威慑，制止； 制止物，制止因素； 挽留的事物； 核威慑

参考例句：

• An extreme school of "disarmers" pronounced stable deterrence was a dangerous deception. “裁军论者”中的极端派声称，稳定的威摄是一种危险的骗局。
• Escalation is thus an aspect of deterrence and of crisis management. 因此逐步升级是威慑和危机处理的一个方面。

12 potent   

adj.强有力的，有权势的；有效力的

参考例句：

• The medicine had a potent effect on your disease.这药物对你的病疗效很大。
• We must account of his potent influence.我们必须考虑他的强有力的影响。

13 buttressed   

v.用扶壁支撑，加固( buttress的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• The court buttressed its decision. 法院支持自己的判决。 来自辞典例句
• The emotional appeal was buttressed with solid and specific policy details. 情感的感召有坚实的和详细的政策细节支持。 来自互联网

14 turmoil   

n.骚乱，混乱，动乱

参考例句：

• His mind was in such a turmoil that he couldn't get to sleep.内心的纷扰使他无法入睡。
• The robbery put the village in a turmoil.抢劫使全村陷入混乱。

15 bully   

n.恃强欺弱者，小流氓；vt.威胁，欺侮

参考例句：

• A bully is always a coward.暴汉常是懦夫。
• The boy gave the bully a pelt on the back with a pebble.那男孩用石子掷击小流氓的背脊。

16 assassination   

n.暗杀；暗杀事件

参考例句：

• The assassination of the president brought matters to a head.总统遭暗杀使事态到了严重关头。
• Lincoln's assassination in 1865 shocked the whole nation.1865年，林肯遇刺事件震惊全美国。