2020年经济学人 新冠病毒的宏观看法(3)

Many experts praise China’s e?orts. Certainly, its scientists have coped better with the Wuhan virus than they did with SARS in 2003, rapidly detecting it, sequencing its genome, licensing¹ diagnostic kits² and informing international bodies.

许多专家称赞中国的努力。当然，与2003年的SARS相比，中国科学家在应对2019-ncov方面做得更好，他们迅速检测出了SARS，对其基因组进行了测序，批准了诊断工具，并通知了国际机构。

That may have undermined a measure which is taking a substantial toll³. China’s growth in the ?rst quarter could fall to as little as 2%, from 6% before the outbreak. As China accounts for almost a ?fth of world output, there will probably be a noticeable dent⁴ on global growth.

这可能破坏了一项正在造成重大损失的措施。中国第一季度的经济增长率可能会从疫情爆发前的6%降至2%。由于中国占全球产出的近五分之一，全球经济增长可能会出现显著放缓。

Outside China such quarantines are unthinkable. The medical and economic cost will depend on governments slowing the disease’s spread. The way to do this is by isolating⁵ cases as soon as they crop up and tracing and quarantining people that victims have been in contact with—indeed, if the disease burns out in China, that might yet stop the pandemic altogether. If, by contrast, that proves inadequate⁶, they could shut schools, discourage travel and urge the cancellation⁷ of public events. Buying time in this way has advantages even if it does not completely stop the disease. Health-care systems would have a greater chance to prepare for the onslaught, and to empty beds that are now full of people with seasonal⁸ ?u.

想象不到还有哪个国家能像中国一样做到这样的隔离。医疗和经济成本将取决于政府能否减缓疾病的蔓延。实现这一目标的方法是，一旦发现病例，立即隔离，并追踪和隔离与患者有过接触的人——实际上，如果这种疾病在中国绝迹，或许还能完全阻止疫情的蔓延。相比之下，如果这被证明是不够的，他们可以关闭学校，阻止旅行，并敦促取消公共活动。以这种方式争取时间是有好处的，即使它不能完全阻止疾病。卫生保健系统将有更大的机会为这次冲击做准备，并腾出现在满是季节性流感患者的病床。

Despite all those e?orts the epidemic⁹ could still be severe. Some health systems, in Africa and the slums of Asia’s vast cities, will not be able to isolate¹⁰ patients and trace contacts. Much depends on whether people are infectious when their symptoms are mild (or before they show any at all, as some reports suggest), because such people are hard to spot. And also on whether the virus mutates to become more transmissible or lethal¹¹.

尽管作出所有这些努力，疫情仍可能十分严重。非洲和亚洲大城市贫民窟的一些卫生系统将无法隔离病人并追踪接触者。这在很大程度上取决于人们在症状轻微的时候是否具有传染性(或者像一些报告所显示的那样，在他们表现出任何症状之前)，因为这样的人很难被发现。以及病毒是否会突变，变得更具传染性或致命性。

The world has never responded as rapidly to a disease as it has to 2019-ncov. Even so, the virus may still do great harm. As humans encroach on new habitats, farm more animals, gather in cities, travel and warm the planet, new diseases will become more common. One estimate puts their cost at $60bn a year. SARS, MERS, Nipah, Zika, Mexican swine ?u: the fever from Wuhan is the latest of a bad bunch. It will not be the last.

世界对一种疾病的反应从来没有像对2019-ncov这样迅速。即便如此，这种病毒仍可能造成巨大危害。随着人类侵占新栖息地、饲养更多动物、聚集在城市、旅行并使地球变暖，新型疾病将更加普遍。据估计，它们每年的成本为600亿美元。SARS、中东呼吸综合征、尼帕病毒、寨卡病毒、墨西哥猪流感，而2019-ncov是最新的病毒。而这不会是最后一种。

1 licensing   

v.批准，许可，颁发执照( license的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• A large part of state regulation consists of occupational licensing. 大部分州的管理涉及行业的特许批准。 来自英汉非文学 - 行政法
• That licensing procedures for projects would move faster. 这样的工程批准程序一定会加快。 来自辞典例句

2 kits   

衣物和装备( kit的名词复数 )； 成套用品； 配套元件

参考例句：

• Keep your kits closed and locked when not in use. 不用的话把你的装备都锁好放好。
• Gifts Articles, Toy and Games, Wooden Toys, Puzzles, Craft Kits. 采购产品礼品，玩具和游戏，木制的玩具，智力玩具，手艺装备。

3 toll   

n.过路(桥)费；损失，伤亡人数；v.敲(钟)

参考例句：

• The hailstone took a heavy toll of the crops in our village last night.昨晚那场冰雹损坏了我们村的庄稼。
• The war took a heavy toll of human life.这次战争夺去了许多人的生命。

4 dent   

n.凹痕，凹坑；初步进展

参考例句：

• I don't know how it came about but I've got a dent in the rear of my car.我不知道是怎么回事，但我的汽车后部有了一个凹痕。
• That dent is not big enough to be worth hammering out.那个凹陷不大，用不着把它锤平。

5 isolating   

adj.孤立的，绝缘的v.使隔离( isolate的现在分词 )；将…剔出（以便看清和单独处理）；使（某物质、细胞等）分离；使离析

参考例句：

• Colour filters are not very effective in isolating narrow spectral bands. 一些滤色片不能很有效地分离狭窄的光谱带。 来自辞典例句
• This became known as the streak method for isolating bacteria. 这个方法以后就称为分离细菌的划线法。 来自辞典例句

6 inadequate   

adj.(for,to)不充足的，不适当的

参考例句：

• The supply is inadequate to meet the demand.供不应求。
• She was inadequate to the demands that were made on her.她还无力满足对她提出的各项要求。

7 cancellation   

n.删除，取消

参考例句：

• Heavy seas can cause cancellation of ferry services.海上风浪太大，可能须要取消渡轮服务。
• Her cancellation of her trip to Paris upset our plan.她取消了巴黎之行打乱了我们的计划。

8 seasonal   

adj.季节的，季节性的

参考例句：

• The town relies on the seasonal tourist industry for jobs.这个城镇依靠季节性旅游业提供就业机会。
• The hors d'oeuvre is seasonal vegetables.餐前小吃是应时蔬菜。

9 epidemic   

n.流行病；盛行；adj.流行性的，流传极广的

参考例句：

• That kind of epidemic disease has long been stamped out.那种传染病早已绝迹。
• The authorities tried to localise the epidemic.当局试图把流行病限制在局部范围。

10 isolate   

vt.使孤立，隔离

参考例句：

• Do not isolate yourself from others.不要把自己孤立起来。
• We should never isolate ourselves from the masses.我们永远不能脱离群众。

11 lethal   

adj.致死的；毁灭性的

参考例句：

• A hammer can be a lethal weapon.铁锤可以是致命的武器。
• She took a lethal amount of poison and died.她服了致命剂量的毒药死了。