2020年经济学人 病毒来袭--Covid-19恐成全球性流行病(2)

The World Health Organisation¹ was this week full of praise for China’s approach. That does not, however, mean it is a model for the rest of the world. All quarantines carry a cost—not just in lost output, but also in the suffering of those locked away, some of whom forgo² medical treatment for other conditions. It is still too soon to tell whether this price was worth the gains. As China seeks to revive its economy by relaxing the quarantine, it could well be hit by a second wave of infections. Given that uncertainty³, few democracies would be willing to trample⁴ over individuals to the extent China has. And, as the chaotic⁵ epidemic⁶ in Iran shows, not all authoritarian⁷ governments are capable of it.

本周，世界卫生组织对中国的做法大加赞赏。然而，这并不意味着世界其它地区都要依样照搬。所有的隔离措施带来的代价不仅是产出损失，还包括隔离者的痛苦，其中一些人因为其他原因放弃了医疗。现在判断受益是否值得这些代价还为时过早。随着试图通过放松隔离措施来重振经济，很可能遭遇第二波传染。鉴于这种不确定性，很少有国家愿意大面积隔离。而且，正如伊朗混乱的疫情所展现出来的，并非所有的威权政府都能做到这一点。

Yet even if many countries could not, or should not, exactly copy China, its experience holds three important lessons—to talk to the public, to slow the transmission of the disease and to prepare health systems for a spike⁸ in demand.

然而，即使许多国家不能、也不应该完全照搬中国的做法，但中国的经验也有三个重要的教训——与公众对话、减缓疾病传播，并为卫生系统应对需求激增做好准备。

A good example of communication is America’s Centres for Disease Control, which issued a clear, unambiguous warning on February 25th. A bad one is Iran’s deputy health minister, who succumbed⁹ to the virus during a press conference designed to show that the government is on top of the epidemic.

通讯做得很好的一个例子是美国疾病控制中心，其在2月25日发布了一个明确无误的警告。一个不好的例子是伊朗卫生部副部长，他在一场新闻发布会后确诊感染该病毒，这场新闻发布会上的目的本来是展示政府定能战胜病毒。

Even well-meaning attempts to sugarcoat the truth are self-defeating, because they spread mistrust, rumours¹⁰ and, ultimately, fear. The signal that the disease must be stopped at any cost, or that it is too terrifying to talk about, frustrates¹¹ efforts to prepare for the virus’s inevitable¹² arrival. As governments dither, conspiracy¹³ theories coming out of Russia are already sowing doubt, perhaps to hinder and discredit¹⁴ the response of democracies.

即便是善意粉饰真相的企图也会弄巧成拙，因为粉饰会传播不信任、谣言，最终是恐惧。必须不惜一切代价阻止这种疾病的信号、或者是将病毒讲的骇人听闻，都会让为病毒不可避免的到来所做的准备受到打击。在各国政府犹豫不决之际，来自俄罗斯的阴谋论已经播下怀疑的种子，或许是为了阻碍和怀疑民主国家的反应。

The best time to inform people about the disease is before the epidemic. One message is that fatality¹⁵ is correlated with age. If you are over 80 or you have an underlying¹⁶ condition you are at high risk; if you are under 50 you are not. Now is the moment to persuade the future 80% of mild cases to stay at home and not rush to a hospital. People need to learn to wash their hands often and to avoid touching¹⁷ their face. Businesses need continuity plans, to let staff work from home and to ensure a stand-in can replace a vital employee who is ill or caring for a child or parent. The model is Singapore, which learned from SARS, another coronavirus, that clear, early communication limits panic.

让人们了解这种疾病的最佳时机是在流行之前。一条信息是，致命性与年龄有关。如果超过80岁，或者有潜在的疾病，那么就处于高风险中；如果低于50岁，那么就不是高风险。现在是说服未来80%的轻度病例呆在家里、不要急着去医院的时候了。要学会勤洗手，避免摸脸。企业需要连续性计划，让员工在家工作，并确保一个临时替代者能够代替生病或照顾孩子或父母的重要员工。模范例子是新加坡，新加坡从另一种冠状病毒SARS中吸取了教训，早期的清晰交流可以减少恐慌。

1 organisation   

n.组织，安排，团体，有机休

参考例句：

• The method of his organisation work is worth commending.他的组织工作的方法值得称道。
• His application for membership of the organisation was rejected.他想要加入该组织的申请遭到了拒绝。

2 forgo   

v.放弃，抛弃

参考例句：

• Time to prepare was a luxuary he would have to forgo.因为时间不够，他不得不放弃做准备工作。
• She would willingly forgo a birthday treat if only her warring parents would declare a truce.只要她的父母停止争吵，她愿意放弃生日宴请。

3 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

4 trample   

vt.踩，践踏；无视，伤害，侵犯

参考例句：

• Don't trample on the grass. 勿踏草地。
• Don't trample on the flowers when you play in the garden. 在花园里玩耍时,不要踩坏花。

5 chaotic   

adj.混沌的，一片混乱的，一团糟的

参考例句：

• Things have been getting chaotic in the office recently.最近办公室的情况越来越乱了。
• The traffic in the city was chaotic.这城市的交通糟透了。

6 epidemic   

n.流行病；盛行；adj.流行性的，流传极广的

参考例句：

• That kind of epidemic disease has long been stamped out.那种传染病早已绝迹。
• The authorities tried to localise the epidemic.当局试图把流行病限制在局部范围。

7 authoritarian   

n./adj.专制(的)，专制主义者，独裁主义者

参考例句：

• Foreign diplomats suspect him of authoritarian tendencies.各国外交官怀疑他有着独裁主义倾向。
• The authoritarian policy wasn't proved to be a success.独裁主义的政策证明并不成功。

8 spike   

n.长钉，钉鞋；v.以大钉钉牢，使...失效

参考例句：

• The spike pierced the receipts and held them in order.那个钉子穿过那些收据并使之按顺序排列。
• They'll do anything to spike the guns of the opposition.他们会使出各种手段来挫败对手。

9 succumbed   

不再抵抗（诱惑、疾病、攻击等）( succumb的过去式和过去分词 )； 屈从； 被压垮； 死

参考例句：

• The town succumbed after a short siege. 该城被围困不久即告失守。
• After an artillery bombardment lasting several days the town finally succumbed. 在持续炮轰数日后，该城终于屈服了。

10 rumours   

n.传闻( rumour的名词复数 )；风闻；谣言；谣传

参考例句：

• The rumours were completely baseless. 那些谣传毫无根据。
• Rumours of job losses were later confirmed. 裁员的传言后来得到了证实。

11 frustrates   

v.使不成功( frustrate的第三人称单数 )；挫败；使受挫折；令人沮丧

参考例句：

• What frustrates him is that there's too little money to spend on the project. 使他懊恼的是，可用于这个项目的资金太少。
• His trouble is that he frustrates much easily. 他的毛病是很容易泄气。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

12 inevitable   

adj.不可避免的，必然发生的

参考例句：

• Mary was wearing her inevitable large hat.玛丽戴着她总是戴的那顶大帽子。
• The defeat had inevitable consequences for British policy.战败对英国政策不可避免地产生了影响。

13 conspiracy   

n.阴谋，密谋，共谋

参考例句：

• The men were found guilty of conspiracy to murder.这些人被裁决犯有阴谋杀人罪。
• He claimed that it was all a conspiracy against him.他声称这一切都是一场针对他的阴谋。

14 discredit   

vt.使不可置信；n.丧失信义；不信，怀疑

参考例句：

• Their behaviour has bought discredit on English football.他们的行为败坏了英国足球运动的声誉。
• They no longer try to discredit the technology itself.他们不再试图怀疑这种技术本身。

15 fatality   

n.不幸，灾祸，天命

参考例句：

• She struggle against fatality in vain.她徒然奋斗反抗宿命。
• He began to have a growing sense of fatality.他开始有一种越来越强烈的宿命感。

16 underlying   

adj.在下面的，含蓄的，潜在的

参考例句：

• The underlying theme of the novel is very serious.小说隐含的主题是十分严肃的。
• This word has its underlying meaning.这个单词有它潜在的含义。

17 touching   

adj.动人的，使人感伤的

参考例句：

• It was a touching sight.这是一幅动人的景象。
• His letter was touching.他的信很感人。