2020年经济学人 欧元区面临经济考验(2)

Those actions will buy time, but no more than that. There are still limits on how much the ECB can help the south and extra bond purchases are likely to end before southern economies recover. The bank may feel it lacks the mandate¹ to extend its scheme. A legal challenge in Germany is an ever-present threat. And, aware that they are pushing their luck, southern countries may opt² for smaller stimulus³ packages than they really need. That could still mean they face a doom⁴ loop as a shrinking economy makes it harder to service existing debts.

这些行动将赢得时间，但仅此而已。欧洲央行能在多大程度上帮助南欧国家仍有限制，在南欧经济体复苏之前，额外的债券购买可能会结束。欧洲央行可能会觉得自己缺乏扩大该计划的授权。在德国，法律上的挑战是一直存在的威胁。而且，意识到他们是在碰运气，南部国家可能会选择比真正需要的更小的刺激方案。这可能仍然意味着，随着经济萎缩，偿还现有债务变得更加困难，南部国家将面临厄运循环。

Politically the euro faces a dilemma⁵. In the south millions more might conclude that membership of the single currency brings no benefits, fuelling support for Eurosceptic parties such as Italy’s Northern League and the National Rally of Marine⁶ Le Pen in France. In the north bail-outs would bolster⁷ the likes of the hard-right Alternative for Germany.

从政治上讲，欧元面临着两难境地。在南部，还有数百万人可能会得出结论，认为加入单一货币不会带来任何好处，从而助长了对欧洲怀疑论政党的支持，比如意大利的北方联盟和法国的马琳?勒庞全国集会。在北方，紧急援助将支持极右翼的德国新选项党。

What to do? As The Economist⁸ went to press euro-area finance ministers were still struggling to agree on measures, including common funding for unemployment insurance and easier access to credit lines from a common bail-out fund. But the resources available are puny⁹. A proposal, backed by nine member states, for “coronabonds”, or jointly¹⁰ issued debt, is likely to founder¹¹. This would have let the south take advantage of the north’s cheap borrowing costs.

该做什么？在本期《经济学人》付印之际，欧元区各国财长仍在努力就措施达成一致，包括为失业保险提供共同资金，以及从共同纾困基金中更容易获得信贷额度。但是可用的资源很少。一项由9个成员国支持的“coronabond”(联合发行债券)提案可能会失败。这将使韩国得以利用朝鲜低廉的借贷成本。

Northerners have long resisted mutualisation for fear of underwriting laxity in the south. But without it Italy and Spain will face either a savage¹² crisis now or a lengthy¹³ debt crisis in the future. With lockdowns in place from Saxony to Sicily, debt issued today is a result not of bad behaviour but of the pandemic. Mutualisation should be a compromise, signalling that north and south have to live together in their common interest. Even some past opponents of Eurobonds, such as Klaas Knot, head of the Dutch central bank, now see a case for them. Northern leaders must follow. For two decades they have shied away from the fact that the currency union cannot succeed unless its members share more risk. If they do not face up to that today, the euro, and perhaps the European Union itself, will not survive.

长期以来，北方人一直拒绝共同化，因为他们担心南方的保险制度过于宽松。但如果不这样做，意大利和西班牙将面临一场严重的危机，或者未来漫长的债务危机。随着从萨克森到西西里岛等地的禁闭，今天发行的债券不是不良行为的结果，而是受疫情影响的结果。共同化应该是一种妥协，表明北方和南方必须为了共同利益而生活在一起。甚至一些过去反对欧元债券的人，如荷兰央行行长克拉斯?诺特，现在也看到了支持欧元债券的理由。北方领导人必须效仿。二十年来，他们一直回避这样一个事实：除非成员国分担更多风险，否则货币联盟就无法成功。如果他们今天不正视这一点，欧元(或许还有欧盟本身)将不复存在。

1 mandate   

n.托管地；命令，指示

参考例句：

• The President had a clear mandate to end the war.总统得到明确的授权结束那场战争。
• The General Election gave him no such mandate.大选并未授予他这种权力。

2 opt   

vi.选择，决定做某事

参考例句：

• They opt for more holiday instead of more pay.他们选择了延长假期而不是增加工资。
• Will individual schools be given the right to opt out of the local school authority?各个学校可能有权选择退出地方教育局吗？

3 stimulus   

n.刺激，刺激物，促进因素，引起兴奋的事物

参考例句：

• Regard each failure as a stimulus to further efforts.把每次失利看成对进一步努力的激励。
• Light is a stimulus to growth in plants.光是促进植物生长的一个因素。

4 doom   

n.厄运，劫数；v.注定，命定

参考例句：

• The report on our economic situation is full of doom and gloom.这份关于我们经济状况的报告充满了令人绝望和沮丧的调子。
• The dictator met his doom after ten years of rule.独裁者统治了十年终于完蛋了。

5 dilemma   

n.困境，进退两难的局面

参考例句：

• I am on the horns of a dilemma about the matter.这件事使我进退两难。
• He was thrown into a dilemma.他陷入困境。

6 marine   

adj.海的；海生的；航海的；海事的；n.水兵

参考例句：

• Marine creatures are those which live in the sea. 海洋生物是生存在海里的生物。
• When the war broke out,he volunteered for the Marine Corps.战争爆发时，他自愿参加了海军陆战队。

7 bolster   

n.枕垫；v.支持，鼓励

参考例句：

• The high interest rates helped to bolster up the economy.高利率使经济更稳健。
• He tried to bolster up their morale.他尽力鼓舞他们的士气。

8 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

9 puny   

adj.微不足道的，弱小的

参考例句：

• The resources at the central banks' disposal are simply too puny.中央银行掌握的资金实在太少了。
• Antonio was a puny lad,and not strong enough to work.安东尼奥是个瘦小的小家伙，身体还不壮，还不能干活。

10 jointly   

ad.联合地，共同地

参考例句：

• Tenants are jointly and severally liable for payment of the rent. 租金由承租人共同且分别承担。
• She owns the house jointly with her husband. 她和丈夫共同拥有这所房子。

11 Founder   

n.创始者，缔造者

参考例句：

• He was extolled as the founder of their Florentine school.他被称颂为佛罗伦萨画派的鼻祖。
• According to the old tradition,Romulus was the founder of Rome.按照古老的传说，罗穆卢斯是古罗马的建国者。

12 savage   

adj.野蛮的；凶恶的，残暴的；n.未开化的人

参考例句：

• The poor man received a savage beating from the thugs.那可怜的人遭到暴徒的痛打。
• He has a savage temper.他脾气粗暴。

13 lengthy   

adj.漫长的，冗长的

参考例句：

• We devoted a lengthy and full discussion to this topic.我们对这个题目进行了长时间的充分讨论。
• The professor wrote a lengthy book on Napoleon.教授写了一部有关拿破仑的巨著。