2020年经济学人 发达国家经济衰退(1)

As the virus upends productive activity across the world, the question now is how bad things will get.

病毒颠覆了世界各地的生产活动，现在的问题是事情会变得多糟糕。

On April 14th the IMF warned that the global recession would be the deepest for the best part of a century.

4月14日，IMF警告称这将是一个世纪以来最严重的全球经济衰退。

But the severity of the pandemic and the uncertainty¹ around the duration of lockdowns are such that economists³' models,

但是疫情的严重程度和封锁期间的不确定性，使得经济学家在战后时期

trained on business cycles in the postwar era, are of little use.

接受过商业周期训练的模型几乎毫无作用。

Some companies, such as Starbucks and Dell, have pulled their guidance on annual earnings⁴, declining even to hazard a guess about the future.

像星巴克和戴尔这样的一些公司，已经取消了对年度收益的预期，甚至拒绝对未来进行猜测。

Amid the fog, however, one thing seems certain: some economies will suffer much more than others.

但在不确定中，有一件事似乎是确定的：一些经济体将比其他经济体遭受更大的损失。

Economic crises expose and exacerbate⁵ structural⁶ weaknesses.

经济危机暴露并加剧了经济结构的弱点。

Analysis by The Economist² of five decades of GDP data finds that growth rates in rich countries tend to converge⁷ during expansions,

本刊对50年GDP数据的分析发现，在经济扩张时期，发达国家的经济增长率趋于一致，

as even the weakest economies are pulled along. Yet during downturns performance diverges⁸ markedly.

即使是最弱的经济体也会被拉着前进。但在低迷时期，经济表现明显不同。

In the first half of the 2000s the average annual gap between the GDP growth rates of the best-and worst-performing rich countries was five percentage points.

在本世纪前五年，经济增长率表现最好和最糟糕的发达国家之间的平均年度GDP差距是5个百分点。

In 2008-12, in the recession that followed the global financial crisis, the gap widened to ten points.

2008年至2012年，在全球金融危机之后的经济衰退中，这一差距扩大到10个百分点。

This recession will be no different. Three factors should help separate the bad economic outcomes from the dire⁹ ones:

这次经济衰退也不例外。三个因素应该可以帮助区分糟糕的经济后果和可怕的经济后果：

a country's industrial structure; the composition of its corporate¹⁰ sector¹¹; and the effectiveness of its fiscal¹² stimulus¹³.

一个国家的产业结构；其经济部门的组成以及其财政刺激的实效性。

The Economist has used indicators¹⁴ of these to rank, roughly, the exposure of 33 rich countries to the downturn.

本刊利用这三个指标对暴露于经济衰退的33个发达国家进行粗略排名。

Some, such as those in southern Europe, appear far more vulnerable than America and northern European countries.

一些国家，如南欧国家，似乎比美国和北欧国家更脆弱。

Take industrial structure first. Lockdowns will slam countries that depend on labour-intensive activities.

首先是产业结构。封锁将打击那些依赖劳动密集型活动的国家。

Those with large construction sectors¹⁵, such as many central European countries, look vulnerable.

那些依赖建筑业的国家，如许多中欧国家，看上去很脆弱。

So do those that rely on tourism—it accounts for one in eight non-financial jobs in southern Europe.

那些依赖旅游业的国家也一样——占南欧非金融工作的八分之一。

Conversely, those with large mining industries, which require less labour, may do better. Here Canada looks relatively¹⁶ insulated.

相反，那些需要较少劳动力的大型矿业，可能更好些。在这里，加拿大看起来相对不受影响。

Industrial structure also influences the share of people who can work from home, and thus dodge¹⁷ the worst disruption of the lockdowns.

产业结构也影响了可在家办公的人数比例，从而避免了封锁带来的最严重的破坏。

In a paper published on April 10th Jonathan Dingel and Brent Neiman of the University of Chicago estimate that

在一份发表于4月10日的论文中，芝加哥大学的Jonathan Dingel和Brent Neiman预计

fully¹⁸ 45% of jobs in Switzerland could plausibly¹⁹ be done from home.

在瑞士，有45%的工作可以在家完成。

Many Swiss work in industries, such as finance, where all they really need to do their job is a laptop.

很多在金融等行业工作的瑞士人只需一台笔记本电脑。

Others elsewhere do not have this luxury. Less than a third of jobs in Slovakia, a big manufacturing hub, can be performed remotely;

其他地方则没有这种奢侈。在斯洛伐克这个大型制造业中心，只有不到三分之一的工作可以远程完成的；

home working is also difficult in southern Europe. Research by Indeed, a job-search website,

在南欧，在家工作也很困难。求职网站Indeed

and Ireland's central bank finds that since the pandemic began,

以及爱尔兰中央银行的一项研究发现，自疫情开始以来，

countries where home working is less prevalent have seen bigger falls in the number of online job advertisements.

在家办公不那么普遍的国家，其在线招聘广告的数量出现了更大幅度的下降。

1 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

2 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

3 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

4 earnings   

n.工资收人；利润，利益，所得

参考例句：

• That old man lives on the earnings of his daughter.那个老人靠他女儿的收入维持生活。
• Last year there was a 20% decrease in his earnings.去年他的收入减少了20%。

5 exacerbate   

v.恶化，增剧，激怒，使加剧

参考例句：

• WMO says a warming climate can exacerbate air pollution.世界气象组织说，气候变暖可能会加剧空气污染。
• In fact efforts will merely exacerbate the current problem.实际上努力只会加剧当前的问题。

6 structural   

adj.构造的，组织的，建筑（用）的

参考例句：

• The storm caused no structural damage.风暴没有造成建筑结构方面的破坏。
• The North American continent is made up of three great structural entities.北美大陆是由三个构造单元组成的。

7 converge   

vi.会合；聚集，集中；(思想、观点等)趋近

参考例句：

• The results converge towards this truth.其结果趋近于这个真理。
• Parallel lines converge at infinity.平行线永不相交。

8 diverges   

分开( diverge的第三人称单数 )； 偏离； 分歧； 分道扬镳

参考例句：

• The beam of flashlight diverges, but it can be refocused with lenses. 一个发散的闪光灯束可以用透镜重新聚焦。
• At the end of the wood, the path diverges to the left. 在树林的尽头，小路向左拐去。

9 dire   

adj.可怕的，悲惨的，阴惨的，极端的

参考例句：

• There were dire warnings about the dangers of watching too much TV.曾经有人就看电视太多的危害性提出严重警告。
• We were indeed in dire straits.But we pulled through.那时我们的困难真是大极了，但是我们渡过了困难。

10 corporate   

adj.共同的，全体的；公司的，企业的

参考例句：

• This is our corporate responsibility.这是我们共同的责任。
• His corporate's life will be as short as a rabbit's tail.他的公司的寿命是兔子尾巴长不了。

11 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。

12 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

13 stimulus   

n.刺激，刺激物，促进因素，引起兴奋的事物

参考例句：

• Regard each failure as a stimulus to further efforts.把每次失利看成对进一步努力的激励。
• Light is a stimulus to growth in plants.光是促进植物生长的一个因素。

14 indicators   

（仪器上显示温度、压力、耗油量等的）指针( indicator的名词复数 )； 指示物； （车辆上的）转弯指示灯； 指示信号

参考例句：

• The economic indicators are better than expected. 经济指标比预期的好。
• It is still difficult to develop indicators for many concepts used in social science. 为社会科学领域的许多概念确立一个指标仍然很难。

15 sectors   

n.部门( sector的名词复数 )；领域；防御地区；扇形

参考例句：

• Berlin was divided into four sectors after the war. 战后柏林分成了4 个区。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Industry and agriculture are the two important sectors of the national economy. 工业和农业是国民经济的两个重要部门。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

16 relatively   

adv.比较...地，相对地

参考例句：

• The rabbit is a relatively recent introduction in Australia.兔子是相对较新引入澳大利亚的物种。
• The operation was relatively painless.手术相对来说不痛。

17 dodge   

v.闪开，躲开，避开；n.妙计，诡计

参考例句：

• A dodge behind a tree kept her from being run over.她向树后一闪，才没被车从身上辗过。
• The dodge was coopered by the police.诡计被警察粉碎了。

18 fully   

adv.完全地，全部地，彻底地；充分地

参考例句：

• The doctor asked me to breathe in,then to breathe out fully.医生让我先吸气，然后全部呼出。
• They soon became fully integrated into the local community.他们很快就完全融入了当地人的圈子。

19 plausibly   

似真地

参考例句：

• The case was presented very plausibly. 案情的申述似很可信。
• He argued very plausibly for its acceptance. 他为使之认可辩解得头头是道。