2020年经济学人 贸易金融(1)

"In warm weather, fewer people wear socks," says Paul Rotstein of Gold Medal International, a wholesaler¹ in New York.

“在温暖的天气，穿袜子的人更少，”纽约批发商Gold Medal International的Paul Rotstein说到。

People may not sport socks in the summer but his firm starts shipping² them to retailers³ in July, ahead of the start of the school year.

夏天人们可能不穿运动袜，但他的公司在7月份开学前就开始把袜子运送给零售商。

There is, however, a big lag before he is paid. He normally uses trade-credit insurance to protect against the risk that his invoices⁴ go unpaid⁵,

但在他拿到钱之前，时间上存在一个大的延迟。通常，他会购买贸易信用保险来防止货单不付款的风险，

but this year the insurers have slashed⁶ the amounts they are willing to cover by 50-90%.

但今年保险公司已经将他们愿意承保的金额削减了50至90%。

That leaves him with two options: shoulder huge credit risk himself, or walk away from orders.

他有两个选择：自己承担巨额信贷风险，或者放弃订单。

Mr Rotstein's dilemma⁷ underscores the role of trade finance, an unglamorous but critical bit of the financial system.

Rotstein的困境凸显了贸易金融的作用，这是金融体系中的一种不起眼却很关键的部分。

Many firms are owed a large amount by their customers in the form of receivables; in total the amount is worth around 20% of global GDP.

许多公司的客户都以应收账款的形式欠了公司一大笔钱；总计价值约为全球GDP的20%。

Some firms bear all the risk of nonpayment themselves. But others look to an insurer to protect them from default,

一些公司自己承担了拒付的所有风险。但其他公司指望保险公司保护他们不受违约影响，

or take out specialist loans backed by the invoices.

或是取得由货单支持的专项贷款。

Together these financing solutions underpin⁸ four-fifths of cross-border transactions, which are worth $15trn a year.

这些融资方案支撑了五分之四的跨国交易，价值15万亿美元一年。

Trade financiers face three problems created by the covid-19 pandemic (and the accompanying recession).

新冠疫情（以及伴随而来的经济衰退）给贸易融资商造成了三个问题。

It has disrupted normal operations by slowing the travel of documents; it has raised the risk that existing loans will sour;

文件传递速度的减慢扰乱了正常的运作；增加了现有贷款变成坏账的风险；

and it has made lenders more cautious about making new loans.

并且让银行对发放新贷款变得更加谨慎。

Take operational troubles first. Trade finance is notoriously paper-based.

首先是操作问题。众所周知，贸易金融以纸质档为基础。

Processing credit requires involved parties, from financiers and carriers to warehouse⁹ managers and customs officers,

处理信贷需要所涉及到的各方，从融资方和承运方到仓库经理和海关官员，

to exchange an average of 36 documents and 240 copies. But lockdowns trapped bits of paper in shut-down offices.

平均交换36份文件和240份复印件。但封锁将少量文件锁在了关闭的办公室里。

Printing became a palaver¹⁰. When couriers eventually got to banks, they often found no one there.

打印成了空话。当快递员最终来到银行，他们通常发现那里一个人都没有。

Financiers have been forced to be nimble.

融资方被迫变得灵活。

Banks started accepting scanned signatures and documents.

银行开始接受扫描签名和文件。

A cargo-firm executive says it issued four times as many electronic bills of lading—receipts detailing goods on-board a ship—in March as it did in February.

一家货物公司的高管说，公司三月签发电子提单——说明船上货物的收据——的数量是二月的四倍。

That has helped limit delays, though some in the industry worry that rises in fraud could follow.

这有助于限制延期，尽管一些业内人士担心，随后可能会出现更多的欺诈行为。

A second concern is that the existing stock of credit turns sour. Trade finance has long been super-safe:

第二个担忧是现有的信贷存量会恶化。长期以来，贸易金融都超级安全：

annual default rates on letters of credit averaged 0.11% of transactions in 2008-18, less than a tenth of those for corporate¹¹ loans.

2008年至2018年，信用证的年违约率平均为0.11%，不到企业贷款年违约率的十分之一。

But insurers already report payment delays. A rise in bankruptcies¹² would make matters worse.

但保险公司已经通报了付款延迟的情况。破产公司数量的增加会使问题更加糟糕。

Coface, a trade-credit insurer, expects these to rise by a third worldwide by 2021.

贸易信贷保险公司科法斯集团预计，到2021年，数量将增长三分之一。

1 wholesaler   

n.批发商

参考例句：

• We're the largest furniture wholesaler in Illinois. 我们是伊利诺伊州最大的家具批发商。 来自辞典例句
• These are used to create profiles for each wholesaler. 这是他日常的工作或通过与批发商的正式会谈。 来自互联网

2 shipping   

n.船运（发货，运输，乘船）

参考例句：

• We struck a bargain with an American shipping firm.我们和一家美国船运公司谈成了一笔生意。
• There's a shipping charge of ￡5 added to the price.价格之外另加五英镑运输费。

3 retailers   

零售商，零售店( retailer的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• High street retailers reported a marked increase in sales before Christmas. 商业街的零售商报告说圣诞节前销售量显著提高。
• Retailers have a statutory duty to provide goods suitable for their purpose. 零售商有为他们提供符合要求的货品的法定义务。

4 invoices   

发票( invoice的名词复数 )； （发货或服务）费用清单； 清单上货物的装运； 货物的托运

参考例句：

• Take the example of a purchasing clerk keying invoices into a system. 继续说录入员输入发票的例子，这个录入员是一个全职的数据输入人员。 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓
• Consular invoices are declarations made at the consulate of the importing country. 领事发票是进口国领事馆签发的一种申报书。

5 unpaid   

adj.未付款的，无报酬的

参考例句：

• Doctors work excessive unpaid overtime.医生过度加班却无报酬。
• He's doing a month's unpaid work experience with an engineering firm.他正在一家工程公司无偿工作一个月以获得工作经验。

6 slashed   

v.挥砍( slash的过去式和过去分词 )；鞭打；割破；削减

参考例句：

• Someone had slashed the tyres on my car. 有人把我的汽车轮胎割破了。
• He slashed the bark off the tree with his knife. 他用刀把树皮从树上砍下。 来自《简明英汉词典》

7 dilemma   

n.困境，进退两难的局面

参考例句：

• I am on the horns of a dilemma about the matter.这件事使我进退两难。
• He was thrown into a dilemma.他陷入困境。

8 underpin   

v.加固，支撑

参考例句：

• China needs regional stability to underpin its continued economic growth.中国需要地区稳定来巩固其持续的经济增长。
• These developments are underpinned by solid progress in heavy industry.重工业的稳固发展为这些进展打下了基础。

9 warehouse   

n.仓库；vt.存入仓库

参考例句：

• We freighted the goods to the warehouse by truck.我们用卡车把货物运到仓库。
• The manager wants to clear off the old stocks in the warehouse.经理想把仓库里积压的存货处理掉。

10 palaver   

adj.壮丽堂皇的；n.废话，空话

参考例句：

• We don't want all that palaver,do we?我们不想那样小题大做，不是吗？
• Progress is neither proclamation nor palaver.进步不是宣言，也不是空谈。

11 corporate   

adj.共同的，全体的；公司的，企业的

参考例句：

• This is our corporate responsibility.这是我们共同的责任。
• His corporate's life will be as short as a rabbit's tail.他的公司的寿命是兔子尾巴长不了。

12 bankruptcies   

n.破产( bankruptcy的名词复数 )；倒闭；彻底失败；（名誉等的）完全丧失

参考例句：

• It's a matter of record that there were ten bankruptcies in the town last year. 去年这个城市有十家破产是事实。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Business bankruptcies rose 50 percent over the previous year. 破产企业的数量比前一年增加５０％。 来自英汉非文学 - 政府文件