2020年经济学人 银行业戏剧的三幕(2)

This stockpile comes on top of the $20bn the lenders set aside in the first quarter.

这些银行在第一季度拨备了200亿美元。

The way to think about these provisions, said Jennifer Piepszak, JPMorgan's chief financial officer, is that "it is all in the outlook, because we are not seeing it today".

摩根大通的首席财务官Jennifer Piepszak说到，考虑这些拨备的方式是，“因为我们今天没有看到，所以一切都在展望中”。

Will the third act of the crisis see banks making big losses?

危机的第三幕会看到银行遭遇巨大损失吗？

A simple way of thinking about what will happen next is to split the institutions into three parts: the investment bank,

思考接下来会发生什么的一种简单方式是，将这些制度分成三个部分：投资银行，

which has performed exceptionally well so far; loan provisions, which have been exceptionally costly¹;

迄今表现异常出色；贷款损失准备金，其成本一直异常高昂；

and "everything else", which includes wealth and asset management. The residual² bit of large banks' business has, overall, been remarkably³ steady.

以及“一切别的东西”，包括财富和资产管理。大银行的剩余业务整体而言非常稳定。

If provisions for loan losses and revenues from investment banking⁴ had both been flat on the year,

如果贷款损失准备金和投资银行业务收入均与去年持平，

net income would have fallen by an average of just 1% across Citi, JPMorgan and Wells.

那么花旗银行、摩根大通和富国银行的净收益平均仅下降1%。

The fate of banks' profitability seems likely therefore to depend on the fate of the investment-banking business, and of provisions for loan losses.

因此，银行利润率的命运要依赖于投资银行业务以及贷款损失准备金的命运了。

Investment-banking revenues seem set to slow, if they have not already done so.

投资银行的收入似乎要放缓了，如果他们还没有这样做的话。

Trading volumes have eased in June and early July from their highs in March and April.

与3月和4月的高点相比，6月和7月初的交易量有所减少。

Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan's chief executive, reckoned that trading revenues would "normalise" or even drop below normal later in the year.

摩根大通的CEO，杰米·戴蒙认为今年年末，交易收入将“正常化”，甚至低于正常水平。

Whether provisions prove sufficient or not is far from clear. They are based on a number of assumptions that are layered on top of each other.

贷款损失准备金是否准备充足尚不清楚。它们是建立在许多相互叠加的假设之上的。

One is about the path the virus takes. Another is how that evolution affects unemployment and economic growth.

一个是关于病毒的传播途径。另一个是这种进化对失业率和经济增长的影响。

Yet another concerns the size of any further fiscal⁵ stimulus⁶, and how consumers and firms respond to it.

而另一个问题是任何进一步财政刺激的规模，以及消费者和企业对此的反应。

Banks' base case seems to be broadly in line with that of the Federal Reserve.

银行的基本预期似乎与美联储的大体一致。

The economy is expected to be smaller by the end of 2021 than it was at the end of 2019.

预计到2021年底，经济规模将小于2019年底。

The unemployment rate is expected to remain in double digits⁷ until the end of this year, before falling gradually.

预计失业率将在今年年底前保持两位数，然后才会逐渐下降。

But bank bosses emphasised the fog of uncertainty⁸ shrouding⁹ it all. "We are in a completely unpredictable environment," said Michael Corbat, Citi's chief executive.

但银行老板们强调的是笼罩着一切的不确定性。“我们都处在一切完全不可预测的环境中，”花旗银行的CEO Michael Corbat说到。

"In a normal recession unemployment goes up, delinquencies go up, charge-offs go up,

“在正常的经济衰退中，失业率走高、违约率增加、贷款冲销上升、

home prices go down, incomes go down, savings¹⁰ go down," said Mr Dimon. This time the usual relationships do not hold.

房价下跌、收入下降、存款减少，”Dimon说到。这一次，往常的关联不成立了。

Even as unemployment has jumped, for instance, incomes have risen.

例如，失业率上升了，收入也增加了。

If investment-banking revenues subside¹¹ and banks keep having to add to provisions, losses may be on the cards in the third quarter.

如果投资银行收入减少，银行继续不得不增加贷款损失准备金，那么第三季度可能出现亏损。

Wells Fargo was the only bank to make a loss in the second. That reflects its relatively¹² small investment bank, as well as its special situation—

富国银行是唯一一家在第二季度出现亏损的银行。这反映出它的投资银行相对较小，以及其环境特殊——

it still operates under an asset cap imposed by regulators that has constrained¹³ its growth, even as other lenders have ballooned.

它仍在在监管机构设定的资产上限下运营，这限制了它的增长，即使其他银行已经膨胀。

But another, rosier¹⁴ scenario¹⁵ is possible: that government stimulus continues to keep delinquencies down, and banks end up with mountains of spare capital.

但另一种更乐观的情况是有可能的：政府的刺激措施继续让拖欠率保持低水平，并且银行最终拥有了堆积如山的闲置资金。

That would be welcome news for shareholders¹⁶. Even as the S&P 500 benchmark index has recovered, bank shares are a third lower than at the start of the year.

这对股东来说是个好消息。即便标准普尔500指数已经回升，银行股份仍比年初低三分之一。

But the happy scenario also relies on the third act being the final one. With covid-19 cases rising, that is looking increasingly unlikely.

但这个乐观的情况也依赖于第三幕是最后一幕。随着新冠病例的增加，这种可能性似乎越来越小。

1 costly   

adj.昂贵的，价值高的，豪华的

参考例句：

• It must be very costly to keep up a house like this.维修这么一幢房子一定很昂贵。
• This dictionary is very useful,only it is a bit costly.这本词典很有用，左不过贵了些。

2 residual   

adj.复播复映追加时间；存留下来的，剩余的

参考例句：

• There are still a few residual problems with the computer program.电脑程序还有一些残留问题。
• The resulting residual chromatism is known as secondary spectrum.所得到的剩余色差叫做二次光谱。

3 remarkably   

ad.不同寻常地，相当地

参考例句：

• I thought she was remarkably restrained in the circumstances. 我认为她在那种情况下非常克制。
• He made a remarkably swift recovery. 他康复得相当快。

4 banking   

n.银行业，银行学，金融业

参考例句：

• John is launching his son on a career in banking.约翰打算让儿子在银行界谋一个新职位。
• He possesses an extensive knowledge of banking.他具有广博的银行业务知识。

5 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

6 stimulus   

n.刺激，刺激物，促进因素，引起兴奋的事物

参考例句：

• Regard each failure as a stimulus to further efforts.把每次失利看成对进一步努力的激励。
• Light is a stimulus to growth in plants.光是促进植物生长的一个因素。

7 digits   

n.数字( digit的名词复数 )；手指，足趾

参考例句：

• The number 1000 contains four digits. 1000是四位数。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The number 410 contains three digits. 数字 410 中包括三个数目字。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》

8 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

9 shrouding   

n.覆盖v.隐瞒( shroud的现在分词 )；保密

参考例句：

• The mist shrouding the walley had lifted. 笼罩山谷的雾霭散去了。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• A dark stubble was shrouding his strong jaw and dimpled chin. 硕大有凹陷的下巴上满是深色的短须。 来自互联网

10 savings   

n.存款，储蓄

参考例句：

• I can't afford the vacation,for it would eat up my savings.我度不起假，那样会把我的积蓄用光的。
• By this time he had used up all his savings.到这时，他的存款已全部用完。

11 subside   

vi.平静，平息；下沉，塌陷，沉降

参考例句：

• The emotional reaction which results from a serious accident takes time to subside.严重事故所引起的情绪化的反应需要时间来平息。
• The controversies surrounding population growth are unlikely to subside soon.围绕着人口增长问题的争论看来不会很快平息。

12 relatively   

adv.比较...地，相对地

参考例句：

• The rabbit is a relatively recent introduction in Australia.兔子是相对较新引入澳大利亚的物种。
• The operation was relatively painless.手术相对来说不痛。

13 constrained   

adj.束缚的,节制的

参考例句：

• The evidence was so compelling that he felt constrained to accept it. 证据是那样的令人折服，他觉得不得不接受。
• I feel constrained to write and ask for your forgiveness. 我不得不写信请你原谅。

14 rosier   

Rosieresite

参考例句：

• Rosier for an instant forgot the delicacy of his position. 罗齐尔一时间忘记了他的微妙处境。
• A meeting had immediately taken place between the Countess and Mr. Rosier. 伯爵夫人和罗齐尔先生已经搭讪上了。

15 scenario   

n.剧本，脚本；概要

参考例句：

• But the birth scenario is not completely accurate.然而分娩脚本并非完全准确的。
• This is a totally different scenario.这是完全不同的剧本。

16 shareholders   

n.股东( shareholder的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The meeting was attended by 90% of shareholders. 90%的股东出席了会议。
• the company's fiduciary duty to its shareholders 公司对股东负有的受托责任