2020年经济学人 巴托比专栏--判断力问题(2)

The degree of judgment¹ required tends to increase as people take on more responsibility. Those with routine tasks generally have limited scope for judgment. Line supervisors² have some discretion³. For a chief executive, the proportion of decisions involving judgment is high. Deciding not to take action is also a judgment with potentially serious consequences (for example, “I won’t get vaccinated” or “I won’t pay my bills”). The world is full of people whose lack of judgment brought their careers or personal life crashing down. Many made the common mistake of assuming everything was fine.

人们承担的责任越多，对判断力的需求程度往往就越大。那些完成常规任务的人们通常判断力有限。生产线主管具有一定的判断能力。而对于首席执行官来说，涉及判断力的决策占比很高。决定不采取行动同样也是一种可能产生严重后果的判断（比如说，“我不会接种疫苗”或者“我不会支付账单”）。这个世界上到处都是缺乏判断力的人，他们的事业或个人生活一落千丈。很多人都犯了常见的错误，认为一切都很好。

Some people think that good judgment is innate⁴. Sir Andrew accepts that some individuals are born with the ability to listen, be self-aware and better understand other people: all qualities that make good judgment easier. People with good judgment tend to have a breadth of experiences and relationships that enables them to recognise parallels or analogies that others miss. The ability to be detached, both intellectually and emotionally, is also a vital component⁵.

有些人认为良好的判断力是与生俱来的。安德鲁爵士承认，有些人生来就具备倾听、自知之明以及理解他人的能力，而这些品质让人更容易做出良好的判断。具备良好判断力的人往往拥有丰富的经验和人际关系，这使他们能够认识到其他人忽略的事情的相似之处。在智力和情感上能够保持超然也是良好判断力的重要组成部分。

Others may have the wrong sort of characteristics; a tendency to ignore others, stick to rules irrespective of context, rush into action without reflection and struggle to make up their minds.Many leaders make bad judgments⁶ because they unconsciously filter the information they receive or are not sufficiently⁷ critical of what they hear or read. The danger is that people ignore insights that they don’t want to hear, a tendency that can increase with age.

另一些人可能有着不利于做出良好判断的性格特征；比如无视他人的偏好、不顾环境墨守成规、不加思考就仓促行动，难以下定决心。许多领导人之所以做出错误的判断，是因为他们无意识地过滤自己接收到的信息，或者对自己听到或读到的信息没有进行足够的批判。危险之处在于人们会忽略自己不想听到的见解，这种趋势随着年龄增长会愈发明显。

As artificial intelligence gets used for more and more routine tasks in the service sector⁸, exercising judgment may be one area where humans retain an edge over machines. This is far from certain, however. What people perceive as good judgment may stem from the ability to spot certain cues in the environment. This ability may be unconscious, just as a dog can catch a Frisbee⁹ in mid-air without knowing how to calculate wind speed and air resistance.

随着人们越来越将人工智能应用于服务行业的日常工作，做出判断或许是人类能够相对机器仍旧保持优势的一个领域。然而，这还远非定论。人们认为良好的判断力可能源于在环境中发现某些线索的能力。这种能力可能是无意识的，就像狗能在不知道如何计算风速和空气阻力的情况下接住半空中的飞盘一样。

With enough practice, machines may be able to recognise these implicit¹⁰ cues and thus display the equivalent of good judgment. But then, perhaps humans can be taught, too. In the long run one of the trickiest¹¹ aspects of human judgment may be knowing precisely¹² when to let machines take decisions and when to leave it to people.

经过足够的练习，机器也许能够识别这些隐含的暗示，从而做出良好的判断。但到了那时，也许人类也可以通过教导获得良好的判断力。从长远来看，关于人类判断力，其中最棘手的一个问题可能就是准确地知道什么时候让机器来做决定，什么时候听从人类的选择。

1 judgment   

n.审判；判断力，识别力，看法，意见

参考例句：

• The chairman flatters himself on his judgment of people.主席自认为他审视人比别人高明。
• He's a man of excellent judgment.他眼力过人。

2 supervisors   

n.监督者，管理者( supervisor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• I think the best technical people make the best supervisors. 我认为最好的技术人员可以成为最好的管理人员。 来自辞典例句
• Even the foremen or first-level supervisors have a staffing responsibility. 甚至领班或第一线的监督人员也有任用的责任。 来自辞典例句

3 discretion   

n.谨慎；随意处理

参考例句：

• You must show discretion in choosing your friend.你择友时必须慎重。
• Please use your best discretion to handle the matter.请慎重处理此事。

4 innate   

adj.天生的，固有的，天赋的

参考例句：

• You obviously have an innate talent for music.你显然有天生的音乐才能。
• Correct ideas are not innate in the mind.人的正确思想不是自己头脑中固有的。

5 component   

n.组成部分，成分，元件；adj.组成的，合成的

参考例句：

• Each component is carefully checked before assembly.每个零件在装配前都经过仔细检查。
• Blade and handle are the component parts of a knife.刀身和刀柄是一把刀的组成部分。

6 judgments   

判断( judgment的名词复数 )； 鉴定； 评价； 审判

参考例句：

• A peculiar austerity marked his judgments of modern life. 他对现代生活的批评带着一种特殊的苛刻。
• He is swift with his judgments. 他判断迅速。

7 sufficiently   

adv.足够地，充分地

参考例句：

• It turned out he had not insured the house sufficiently.原来他没有给房屋投足保险。
• The new policy was sufficiently elastic to accommodate both views.新政策充分灵活地适用两种观点。

8 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。

9 frisbee   

n.飞盘(塑料玩具)

参考例句：

• We always go to the park on weekends and play Frisbee.我们每个周末都会到公园玩飞盘。
• The frisbee is a light plastic disc,shaped like a plate.飞盘是一种碟形塑料盘。

10 implicit   

a.暗示的，含蓄的，不明晰的，绝对的

参考例句：

• A soldier must give implicit obedience to his officers. 士兵必须绝对服从他的长官。
• Her silence gave implicit consent. 她的沉默表示默许。

11 trickiest   

adj.狡猾的( tricky的最高级 )；（形势、工作等）复杂的；机警的；微妙的

参考例句：

• Many believe this is the trickiest area to navigate. 很多人认为这是最难驾驭的领域。 来自时文部分
• Establishing confidence in a new monetary system was the trickiest part. 建立对新货币体系的信心是其最棘手的部分。 来自互联网

12 precisely   

adv.恰好，正好，精确地，细致地

参考例句：

• It's precisely that sort of slick sales-talk that I mistrust.我不相信的正是那种油腔滑调的推销宣传。
• The man adjusted very precisely.那个人调得很准。