2020年经济学人 全球贸易—潦而不倒(1)

In Quentin Tarantino's "Kill Bill: Volume 2", an action drama, the protagonist¹, played by Uma Thurman, punches her way out of a coffin².

在昆汀·塔伦蒂诺的动作片《杀死比尔2》中，由乌玛·瑟曼饰演的主角打破棺材而出。

Global trade in goods has performed a similar death-defying stunt³ during the covid-19 pandemic.

在新冠疫情期间，全球货物贸易也上演了类似的惊人之举。

In April things looked dismal⁴. Some predicted global trade would slump⁵ by more than 30% this year, compared with 2019.

在四月，情况看起来很糟糕。一些人预测，与2019年相比，今年全球贸易将骤降超过30%。

But after a gut-wrenching spring, trade volumes recorded their biggest monthly rise on record in June, the last month of available data.

但在极度痛苦的春天过后，6月份贸易额出现了有记录以来最大的单月增幅（六月是有数据可查的最后一个月）

Oxford⁶ Economics, a consultancy, predicts that in 2020 as a whole volumes may drop by 10%.

咨询机构牛津经济研究院预测，2020年整体贸易额可能下跌10%。

This resilience has defied recent experience, as well as expectations.

这种回弹与最近的经历和预期都背道而驰。

In 2009, when global GDP fell by 0.1% in the final year of the financial crisis, trade plunged⁷ by a whopping 13%.

2009年，全球GDP在金融危机的最后一年下跌0.1%，而贸易则大幅下降了13%。

This year the IMF forecasts that global GDP could fall by 4.9%, ie, 50 times more than in 2009. So why will the hit to trade probably be smaller?

今年，IMF预计全球GDP可能下跌4.9%，即是2009年的50倍。所以为什么对贸易的冲击可能会更小呢？

After the financial crisis trade volumes fell much further than GDP mostly

金融危机后，贸易额的降幅远远超过了GDP

because people stopped buying heavily traded durable⁸ goods, such as cars.

因为人们不再购买汽车等大量交易的耐用品。

But in the current crisis, untraded domestic services have been harder hit than they were back then.

但在目前的危机中，非贸易国内服务业受到的冲击比当时更大。

Going to the cinema or a restaurant halted during lockdown.

在封锁期间，不能去电影院或餐厅。

Buying an imported fridge did not. That has made the drop in trade relative to GDP smaller.

但仍可以购买进口冰箱。这使得贸易相对于GDP的下降幅度有所减小。

Moreover, the robustness⁹ of the world's production apparatus¹⁰ has underpinned¹¹ trade flows.

此外，世界生产设备的强健支撑了贸易流动。

Covid-19 froze supply chains, but in Asia at least they swiftly started to thaw¹².

新冠疫情冻结了供应链，但至少在亚洲，供应链迅速开始解冻。

According to Simon Evenett of the University of St Gallen in Switzerland,

根据瑞士圣加仑大学的Simon Evenett，

the number of trade restrictions¹³ applied¹⁴ on medical goods and medicine since the start of the crisis peaked in April,

自危机开始以来，对医疗产品和药品实施的贸易限制量在4月份达到峰值，

and has since fallen by 15%. Even more importantly, lockdowns were lifted more quickly than expected,

此后下降了15%。更重要的是，封锁解除的比预期快，

allowing exporting powerhouses like China and Germany to reopen factories and boost output.

这让像中国和德国这样的出口大国能够重开工厂，提高产量。

Pandemic-induced demand gave trade in some products extra pep.

疫情导致的需求给某些产品的贸易带来了额外的刺激。

America's imports of protective equipment tripled between March and July, calculates Panjiva, a trade-data company.

根据贸易数据公司磐聚网的计算，美国防护性设备进口量在三月和六月间增加了两倍。

1 protagonist   

n.(思想观念的)倡导者；主角，主人公

参考例句：

• The protagonist reforms in the end and avoids his proper punishment.戏剧主角最后改过自新并避免了他应受的惩罚。
• He is the model for the protagonist in the play.剧本中的主人公就是以他为模特儿创作的！

2 coffin   

n.棺材，灵柩

参考例句：

• When one's coffin is covered,all discussion about him can be settled.盖棺论定。
• The coffin was placed in the grave.那口棺材已安放到坟墓里去了。

3 stunt   

n.惊人表演，绝技，特技；vt.阻碍...发育，妨碍...生长

参考例句：

• Lack of the right food may stunt growth.缺乏适当的食物会阻碍发育。
• Right up there is where the big stunt is taking place.那边将会有惊人的表演。

4 dismal   

adj.阴沉的，凄凉的，令人忧郁的，差劲的

参考例句：

• That is a rather dismal melody.那是一支相当忧郁的歌曲。
• My prospects of returning to a suitable job are dismal.我重新找到一个合适的工作岗位的希望很渺茫。

5 slump   

n.暴跌，意气消沉，（土地）下沉；vi.猛然掉落，坍塌，大幅度下跌

参考例句：

• She is in a slump in her career.她处在事业的低谷。
• Economists are forecasting a slump.经济学家们预言将发生经济衰退。

6 Oxford   

n.牛津（英国城市）

参考例句：

• At present he has become a Professor of Chemistry at Oxford.他现在已是牛津大学的化学教授了。
• This is where the road to Oxford joins the road to London.这是去牛津的路与去伦敦的路的汇合处。

7 plunged   

v.颠簸( plunge的过去式和过去分词 )；暴跌；骤降；突降

参考例句：

• The train derailed and plunged into the river. 火车脱轨栽进了河里。
• She lost her balance and plunged 100 feet to her death. 她没有站稳，从100英尺的高处跌下摔死了。

8 durable   

adj.持久的，耐久的

参考例句：

• This raincoat is made of very durable material.这件雨衣是用非常耐用的料子做的。
• They frequently require more major durable purchases.他们经常需要购买耐用消费品。

9 robustness   

坚固性，健壮性；鲁棒性

参考例句：

• There were other reasons for concern about the robustness of an economic recovery. 人们还有其他一些原因对经济恢复的健全程度表示关心。 来自英汉非文学 - 政府文件
• Robustness analysis attracts more and more attention in these years. 鲁棒性分析是近几年学术界较为关注的问题。 来自互联网

10 apparatus   

n.装置，器械；器具，设备

参考例句：

• The school's audio apparatus includes films and records.学校的视听设备包括放映机和录音机。
• They had a very refined apparatus.他们有一套非常精良的设备。

11 underpinned   

v.用砖石结构等从下面支撑（墙等）( underpin的过去式和过去分词 )；加固（墙等）的基础；为（论据、主张等）打下基础；加强

参考例句：

• The report is underpinned by extensive research. 这份报告以广泛的研究为基础。
• The statue of Diana was underpinned with charred piles. Diana雕像是建造在炭化了的木桩上的。 来自辞典例句

12 thaw   

v.（使）融化，（使）变得友善；n.融化，缓和

参考例句：

• The snow is beginning to thaw.雪已开始融化。
• The spring thaw caused heavy flooding.春天解冻引起了洪水泛滥。

13 restrictions   

约束( restriction的名词复数 )； 管制； 制约因素； 带限制性的条件（或规则）

参考例句：

• I found the restrictions irksome. 我对那些限制感到很烦。
• a snaggle of restrictions 杂乱无章的种种限制

14 applied   

adj.应用的；v.应用，适用

参考例句：

• She plans to take a course in applied linguistics.她打算学习应用语言学课程。
• This cream is best applied to the face at night.这种乳霜最好晚上擦脸用。