The days of borrowing money for next to nothing are coming to an end

The days of borrowing money for next to nothing are coming to an end

　　Transcript¹

　　The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates for the first time since 2018. NPR's Steve Inskeep speaks to William Spriggs, chief economist² to the AFL-CIO.

　　STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:

　　The Federal Reserve now plans to raise interest rates again and again. It's a bid to counter inflation, which is one of the Fed's two main jobs. William Spriggs is following this news for us. He is chief economist for the AFL-CIO. He's at Howard University, and he's been at the Department of Labor³ in the past. Welcome to the program.

　　WILLIAM SPRIGGS: Thank you for having me today.

　　INSKEEP: Is this series of quarter-point interest rate hikes going to be enough?

　　SPRIGGS: Well, it doesn't address the issue that's causing inflation. We're having inflation in large part - two of the points causing inflation - two of the percentage points - come from automobiles⁵. And this is because this is the longest period we've had a slump⁶ in auto⁴ production of this magnitude. We're still 40% below production levels from before COVID because of the lack of chips.

　　INSKEEP: Yeah.

　　SPRIGGS: And of course, we all know the price of oil has been spiking⁷ because of what's going on with Russia's invasion of Ukraine. And Ukraine is the breadbasket of Europe. So we're going to have disruptions to wheat prices, to corn prices, which means to meat prices. None of those things are going to be affected⁸ by raising interest rates. This is a series of supply shocks.

　　INSKEEP: Oh, this is very interesting because, of course, interest rates would be the main tool that the Fed has to attack inflation in this situation. But you're telling me that the problem is not too much money awash in the economy. It's a lack of supply.

　　SPRIGGS: It's a lack of supply. And it's happening in so many different sectors¹⁰, autos being a very major sector⁹, oil being a very major sector. And we know that some companies are taking advantage of this moment to raise prices because they have market power to do so. But the Fed can sort of cajole them by letting them know that that's not good. But tomorrow, the price of oil is not going to come down because the Fed raised interest rates.

　　INSKEEP: Is it possible that prices will gradually come down, though, because people are going to be squeezed? It's going to be a little bit harder to borrow money.

　　SPRIGGS: Yes, but we need to be wary¹¹ because it's not so much that we don't borrow money, we stop buying goods. And when you stop buying goods, that means employers don't need to hire as many workers. That is what we have to be thinking about. So when people say, oh, I'm glad they're going to slow down the economy, they need to think through what does that mean to slow down the economy?

　　INSKEEP: I'm also interested in what this does to the housing market. Of course, the Fed's benchmark interest rate doesn't always directly correlate to home mortgage interest rates, but there can be a connection between the one and the other. And what does it do to the housing market if interest rates were to go up when the housing market has been, up to now, extraordinarily¹² hot?

　　SPRIGGS: It can slow it down. The home mortgage interest rate is a long-term rate, and many people may be convinced - bankers - that, well, now the Fed is acting¹³. There won't be long-term inflation. And so the home interest rate may not go up that much because they're going to be more convinced, yes, in the long run, the Fed has this under control.

　　INSKEEP: What do you think ultimately will bring down inflation if you are skeptical¹⁴ that the Fed's action will have that much of a direct impact?

　　SPRIGGS: The human race must beat COVID, and we have to handle Putin. We have to get him out of Ukraine. We have to get Ukraine back to being able to produce and be free. That's what it's going to take to get us back to where trade and economic activity are normal.

　　INSKEEP: William Spriggs, chief economist of the AFL-CIO, a pleasure talking with you. Thank you, sir.

　　SPRIGGS: Good to talk to you.

　　(SOUNDBITE OF THE GREG FOAT GROUP'S "THE DANCERS WALTZ")

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

3 labor   

n.劳动，努力，工作，劳工；分娩；vi.劳动，努力，苦干；vt.详细分析；麻烦

参考例句：

• We are never late in satisfying him for his labor.我们从不延误付给他劳动报酬。
• He was completely spent after two weeks of hard labor.艰苦劳动两周后，他已经疲惫不堪了。

4 auto   

n.(=automobile)(口语)汽车

参考例句：

• Don't park your auto here.别把你的汽车停在这儿。
• The auto industry has brought many people to Detroit.汽车工业把许多人吸引到了底特律。

5 automobiles   

n.汽车( automobile的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• When automobiles become popular,the use of the horse and buggy passed away. 汽车普及后，就不再使用马和马车了。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Automobiles speed in an endless stream along the boulevard. 宽阔的林荫道上，汽车川流不息。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

6 slump   

n.暴跌，意气消沉，（土地）下沉；vi.猛然掉落，坍塌，大幅度下跌

参考例句：

• She is in a slump in her career.她处在事业的低谷。
• Economists are forecasting a slump.经济学家们预言将发生经济衰退。

7 spiking   

n.尖峰形成v.加烈酒于( spike的现在分词 )；偷偷地给某人的饮料加入（更多）酒精（ 或药物）；把尖状物钉入；打乱某人的计划

参考例句：

• High spiking fever with chills is suggestive of a complicating pylephlebitis. 伴有寒战的高热，暗示合并门静脉炎。 来自辞典例句
• We could be spiking our own guns. 我们可能要遭到失败。 来自辞典例句

8 affected   

adj.不自然的，假装的

参考例句：

• She showed an affected interest in our subject.她假装对我们的课题感到兴趣。
• His manners are affected.他的态度不自然。

9 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。

10 sectors   

n.部门( sector的名词复数 )；领域；防御地区；扇形

参考例句：

• Berlin was divided into four sectors after the war. 战后柏林分成了4 个区。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Industry and agriculture are the two important sectors of the national economy. 工业和农业是国民经济的两个重要部门。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

11 wary   

adj.谨慎的，机警的，小心的

参考例句：

• He is wary of telling secrets to others.他谨防向他人泄露秘密。
• Paula frowned,suddenly wary.宝拉皱了皱眉头，突然警惕起来。

12 extraordinarily   

adv.格外地；极端地

参考例句：

• She is an extraordinarily beautiful girl.她是个美丽非凡的姑娘。
• The sea was extraordinarily calm that morning.那天清晨，大海出奇地宁静。

13 acting   

n.演戏，行为，假装；adj.代理的，临时的，演出用的

参考例句：

• Ignore her,she's just acting.别理她，她只是假装的。
• During the seventies,her acting career was in eclipse.在七十年代，她的表演生涯黯然失色。

14 skeptical   

adj.怀疑的，多疑的

参考例句：

• Others here are more skeptical about the chances for justice being done.这里的其他人更为怀疑正义能否得到伸张。
• Her look was skeptical and resigned.她的表情是将信将疑而又无可奈何。