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(单词翻译:双击或拖选)
Biden will be in Brussels for NATO's meeting on the war in Ukraine
NPR's A Martinez speaks with Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, about President Biden's diplomatic strategy at the upcoming NATO summit on Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
A MARTINEZ, HOST:
For more on the U.S.-NATO approach to Ukraine, we have Richard Haass, president on - of the Council on Foreign Relations and a former diplomat2. Richard, welcome.
RICHARD HAASS: Good morning.
MARTINEZ: Now, President Biden is expected to announce new sanctions on Russia during this trip. So far, those sanctions have not seemed to deter3 Vladimir Putin. I saw that you wrote that if - Vladimir Putin is maybe more motivated to make a deal - actually, to make a point on Ukraine than to make a deal on them. Then what is the point of these sanctions, given the urgency?
HAASS: Well, the sanctions are one tool in the arsenal4. Obviously, it makes Russia pay a price for its aggression5. But the history of sanctions is such that they're not going to deliver Russia. But hopefully over time - and I understand that time is not necessarily on our side or Ukraine's side - but hopefully over time, they will increase the pressure or incentive6 on Russia to compromise.
MARTINEZ: The EU has not sanctioned Russia where it hurts the most, and that's oil and gas, because many Europeans still depend on Russian energy. Can the U.S. and the EU maybe work together to sanction Russia's energy, and maybe that could have a bigger impact on Vladimir Putin?
HAASS: That could have a much bigger impact on Vladimir Putin if it could be done. We're talking about nearly a billion dollars - with a B - going to Putin every day. So that offsets7 many of the other sanctions. The problem is Germany and parts of Europe have allowed themselves to become heavily energy-dependent on Russia, and there's simply no short-term way to turn the key here. You're talking about not just months, but probably years of gradually winding8 down dependence9 on Russia and winding up alternatives. And like I said, that's a matter of years.
MARTINEZ: Yeah. You know, yesterday on MORNING EDITION, my colleague Steve Inskeep spoke10 with retired11 Air Force General Philip Breedlove. He's also a former NATO supreme12 allied13 commander. This is what he had to say about President Biden's approach to publicly stating what he is willing to do and what he is willing to not do.
(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED NPR BROADCAST)
PHILIP BREEDLOVE: You've heard these very public notes - no this, no that. And I think that we should be having conversations, and not so publicly. A military force wants to plan and look at options. And to stand up and take those options off the table preemptively is not the way we operate. We should allow military planners to take a look at this and then advise the civilians15 who make the decisions.
MARTINEZ: So, Richard, what do you think about General Breedlove's assessment16 about not taking things off the table?
HAASS: I disagree in the sense that we should not be threatening things we're not prepared to do. We were not prepared to put boots on the ground to resist the Russian invasion of Ukraine. And again, you don't want to raise questions of your credibility. Plus, we're doing a lot. We are providing a lot of arms to Ukraine. We are strengthening NATO. What I think we have to do - and by the way, no one's telling the military not to plan. That's what militaries do. They plan.
What we can do is plan for various scenarios17. How do we plan, for example, for potential Russian escalation18 if they were to attack arms depots19 within NATO? How do we plan for Russian use of weapons of mass destruction, chemical or nuclear, inside Ukraine and so forth20? How do we plan for Russian cyberattacks? All of that, we are doing, and we need to do, indeed. That's one of the big subjects for this summit. One of the sensitive areas is, how do we prepare for the fact that Russia may not simply continue to do what it's doing, which is essentially21 bombing civilian14 areas, but that it might be tempted22 to escalate23 in any number of ways?
MARTINEZ: Doesn't, though, that give Vladimir Putin a road map on where he can go and not go, possibly?
HAASS: Well, he seems to have chosen a path where, again, he's not so much fighting the Ukraine army as he's fighting or attacking Ukrainian civilians. What we need to do is continue to strengthen Ukraine's army. One thing we might want to look at is how we attack, for - give them the means to attack Russian ships in the Black Sea that are bombing ports in the south. But the whole idea here is to forge an effective indirect response, indirect help for Ukraine, without risking direct confrontation24 with Russia. That's the balancing act of the NATO strategy.
MARTINEZ: What if Belarus gets involved? What if they send troops into Ukraine to assist Russia? How does that change things?
HAASS: Complicates25 things. That would basically make Belarus a combatant. And we would want to look for ways that we're not just sanctioning Belarus exhaustively, but potentially, if they're going to become part of the theater of military operations, then they have to take the consequences of that.
MARTINEZ: Where do you see this conflict going in the coming weeks, or do I even say months, possibly, at this point?
HAASS: I think you do say months, possibly, even potentially longer. Look, the optimist26 in me would like to sit here and tell you, A, that we're going to have a negotiated outcome where various compromises will trade off. I don't see it happening at the moment. I think the most likely thing is a long war, what you might call a frozen conflict. Well, what we're seeing now, we're going to see a version of it - a military war between the Ukraine and the Russian armed forces, attacks on civilians - potentially with the possibility of escalation. I'm afraid that that's Ukraine's future for the foreseeable future.
MARTINEZ: That's Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations. Richard, thank you.
HAASS: Thank you.
1 transcript | |
n.抄本,誊本,副本,肄业证书 | |
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2 diplomat | |
n.外交官,外交家;能交际的人,圆滑的人 | |
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3 deter | |
vt.阻止,使不敢,吓住 | |
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4 arsenal | |
n.兵工厂,军械库 | |
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5 aggression | |
n.进攻,侵略,侵犯,侵害 | |
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6 incentive | |
n.刺激;动力;鼓励;诱因;动机 | |
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7 offsets | |
n.开端( offset的名词复数 );出发v.抵消( offset的第三人称单数 );补偿;(为了比较的目的而)把…并列(或并置);为(管道等)装支管 | |
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8 winding | |
n.绕,缠,绕组,线圈 | |
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9 dependence | |
n.依靠,依赖;信任,信赖;隶属 | |
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10 spoke | |
n.(车轮的)辐条;轮辐;破坏某人的计划;阻挠某人的行动 v.讲,谈(speak的过去式);说;演说;从某种观点来说 | |
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11 retired | |
adj.隐退的,退休的,退役的 | |
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12 supreme | |
adj.极度的,最重要的;至高的,最高的 | |
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13 allied | |
adj.协约国的;同盟国的 | |
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14 civilian | |
adj.平民的,民用的,民众的 | |
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15 civilians | |
平民,百姓( civilian的名词复数 ); 老百姓 | |
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16 assessment | |
n.评价;评估;对财产的估价,被估定的金额 | |
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17 scenarios | |
n.[意]情节;剧本;事态;脚本 | |
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18 escalation | |
n.扩大,增加 | |
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19 depots | |
仓库( depot的名词复数 ); 火车站; 车库; 军需库 | |
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20 forth | |
adv.向前;向外,往外 | |
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21 essentially | |
adv.本质上,实质上,基本上 | |
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22 tempted | |
v.怂恿(某人)干不正当的事;冒…的险(tempt的过去分词) | |
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23 escalate | |
v.(使)逐步增长(或发展),(使)逐步升级 | |
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24 confrontation | |
n.对抗,对峙,冲突 | |
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25 complicates | |
使复杂化( complicate的第三人称单数 ) | |
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26 optimist | |
n.乐观的人,乐观主义者 | |
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