美国国家公共电台 NPR--Accurate forecasts alone aren't enough to prevent deaths from hurricanes and storms

Accurate forecasts alone aren't enough to prevent deaths from hurricanes and storms

Transcript¹

The National Hurricane Center says better modeling now allows meteorologists to extend forecasts from five to seven days. It's also improving storm surge forecasts.

LEILA FADEL, HOST:

Thursday marks the beginning of the Atlantic hurricane season. That's likely causing some anxiety in southwest Florida, where communities are still rebuilding from the devastation² of Hurricane Ian in September. More than 150 people died, and it was the third costliest³ hurricane in U.S. history. This year, the National Hurricane Center is rolling out new tools to alert the public of the risks posed by storms. But as NPR's Greg Allen reports, accurate forecasts alone are not enough to prevent deaths from hurricanes and tropical storms.

GREG ALLEN, BYLINE⁴: The National Hurricane Center's deputy director, Jamie Rhome, calls it the story about Hurricane Ian that never got told. It's that despite the high death toll⁵ and the level of destruction, the center's meteorologists did a good job forecasting the hurricane's track, intensity⁶ and the areas at risk from storm surge. Rhome recalls the advisory⁷ issued five days before Ian made landfall.

JAMIE RHOME: A major hurricane is going to move in the eastern Gulf⁸ of Mexico and likely impact the west coast of Florida.

ALLEN: Rhome says the early warnings likely saved numerous lives. Hurricane forecasts have greatly improved over the last decade, largely because of better data from satellites, buoys⁹ and aircraft, along with more powerful computers and sophisticated modeling. Even so, in Hurricane Ian, many people on the coast underestimated the threat of storm surge.

(SOUNDBITE OF WIND BLOWING)

ALLEN: In a presentation at a recent hurricane conference, Rhome played video of a cottage on Fort Myers Beach as it's engulfed¹⁰ by a rapidly rising storm surge. The house is swept off its foundation and eventually washed away in the 15-foot flood. Amazingly, people who were in the house survived. Forty-one people are known to have died in Ian's storm surge. But despite evacuation orders, many decided¹¹ to stay in their homes. One reason, Rhome believes, is that too often, people focus on the storm's wind speed, its category number on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

RHOME: The primary reason we evacuate¹² in this country is because of storm surge, yet we are absolutely enamored, as a country, with the Saffir-Simpson scale. It is a wind scale. You've got to stop focusing on the wrong things.

ALLEN: The deaths in Ian were the most seen in Florida from a storm since the 1935 Labor¹³ Day hurricane. Rhome says that's because Ian hit a densely¹⁴ populated area. More than 150,000 people were at risk from storm surge, he says, so the death toll could have been much higher. Director of the National Hurricane Center Mike Brennan says although storm surge has the greatest potential to cause the most deaths in a single day, in recent years, more deaths have been caused by freshwater flooding, sometimes far inland.

MIKE BRENNAN: It can happen anywhere. It's almost entirely¹⁵ unrelated to how strong a storm is. So a tropical depression, the remnants of a system, if they sit over an area long enough, can produce deadly freshwater flooding.

ALLEN: To better communicate the risk from flooding, the National Hurricane Center has made improvements to its storm surge models. This year, it's also expanding its tropical weather outlooks from five to seven days. Florida State University meteorologist Allison Wing says the enhanced outlook should give people more time to get their hurricane plans in place.

ALLISON WING: It gives you just a kind of - a little bit more lead time in thinking about, all right, within the next week, are we expecting anything to happen?

ALLEN: A major factor meteorologists are watching closely this year is the likely development in the Pacific of a strong El Nino climate pattern. That has global implications, including higher than normal temperatures worldwide. Typically, El Ninos tend to suppress the development of hurricanes in the Atlantic. But this year, Colorado State University forecaster Phil Klotzbach is expecting hurricane activity to be just slightly below normal. The reason?

PHIL KLOTZBACH: The Atlantic right now is extremely warm, much warmer than normal for this time of year. And so normally when the Atlantic is warm, that tends to favor above-normal activity.

ALLEN: As meteorologists and emergency managers like to say, it only takes just one. Damaging hurricanes have made landfall even in relatively¹⁶ quiet El Nino years. Looking back at the loss of life in Hurricane Ian, National Hurricane Center director Mike Brennan says his biggest worry is complacency.

BRENNAN: You know, we lost a lot of people in Katrina in 2005 because they didn't think it would be worse than Camille was. We have a tremendous number of people moving around in this country. You look at Florida, you look at other coastal¹⁷ states - people moving here from non-hurricane prone¹⁸ areas, they don't even know what their risk is.

ALLEN: Hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.

Greg Allen, NPR News, Miami.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 devastation   

n.毁坏；荒废；极度震惊或悲伤

参考例句：

• The bomb caused widespread devastation. 炸弹造成大面积破坏。
• There was devastation on every side. 到处都是破坏的创伤。 来自《简明英汉词典》

3 costliest   

adj.昂贵的( costly的最高级 )；代价高的；引起困难的；造成损失的

参考例句：

• At 81 billion dollars, Katrina is the costliest natural disaster in American history. “卡特里娜”飓风造成了近810亿美圆的损失，是美国历史上最严重的自然灾难之一。 来自互联网
• Senator John Kerry has proposed a tax on the costliest health plans sold by insurance companies. 参议员约翰？克里(JohnKerry)已经提议对保险公司销售的高价值的保险计划征税。 来自互联网

4 byline   

n.署名；v.署名

参考例句：

• His byline was absent as well.他的署名也不见了。
• We wish to thank the author of this article which carries no byline.我们要感谢这篇文章的那位没有署名的作者。

5 toll   

n.过路(桥)费；损失，伤亡人数；v.敲(钟)

参考例句：

• The hailstone took a heavy toll of the crops in our village last night.昨晚那场冰雹损坏了我们村的庄稼。
• The war took a heavy toll of human life.这次战争夺去了许多人的生命。

6 intensity   

n.强烈，剧烈；强度；烈度

参考例句：

• I didn't realize the intensity of people's feelings on this issue.我没有意识到这一问题能引起群情激奋。
• The strike is growing in intensity.罢工日益加剧。

7 advisory   

adj.劝告的，忠告的，顾问的，提供咨询

参考例句：

• I have worked in an advisory capacity with many hospitals.我曾在多家医院做过顾问工作。
• He was appointed to the advisory committee last month.他上个月获任命为顾问委员会委员。

8 gulf   

n.海湾；深渊，鸿沟；分歧，隔阂

参考例句：

• The gulf between the two leaders cannot be bridged.两位领导人之间的鸿沟难以跨越。
• There is a gulf between the two cities.这两座城市间有个海湾。

9 buoys   

n.浮标( buoy的名词复数 )；航标；救生圈；救生衣v.使浮起( buoy的第三人称单数 )；支持；为…设浮标；振奋…的精神

参考例句：

• The channel is marked by buoys. 航道有浮标表示。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• Often they mark the path with buoys. 他们常常用浮标作为航道的标志。 来自辞典例句

10 engulfed   

v.吞没，包住( engulf的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• He was engulfed by a crowd of reporters. 他被一群记者团团围住。
• The little boat was engulfed by the waves. 小船被波浪吞没了。 来自《简明英汉词典》

11 decided   

adj.决定了的，坚决的；明显的，明确的

参考例句：

• This gave them a decided advantage over their opponents.这使他们比对手具有明显的优势。
• There is a decided difference between British and Chinese way of greeting.英国人和中国人打招呼的方式有很明显的区别。

12 evacuate   

v.遣送；搬空；抽出；排泄；大(小)便

参考例句：

• We must evacuate those soldiers at once!我们必须立即撤出这些士兵！
• They were planning to evacuate the seventy American officials still in the country.他们正计划转移仍滞留在该国的70名美国官员。

13 labor   

n.劳动，努力，工作，劳工；分娩；vi.劳动，努力，苦干；vt.详细分析；麻烦

参考例句：

• We are never late in satisfying him for his labor.我们从不延误付给他劳动报酬。
• He was completely spent after two weeks of hard labor.艰苦劳动两周后，他已经疲惫不堪了。

14 densely   

ad.密集地；浓厚地

参考例句：

• A grove of trees shadowed the house densely. 树丛把这幢房子遮蔽得很密实。
• We passed through miles of densely wooded country. 我们穿过好几英里茂密的林地。

15 entirely   

ad.全部地，完整地；完全地，彻底地

参考例句：

• The fire was entirely caused by their neglect of duty. 那场火灾完全是由于他们失职而引起的。
• His life was entirely given up to the educational work. 他的一生统统献给了教育工作。

16 relatively   

adv.比较...地，相对地

参考例句：

• The rabbit is a relatively recent introduction in Australia.兔子是相对较新引入澳大利亚的物种。
• The operation was relatively painless.手术相对来说不痛。

17 coastal   

adj.海岸的，沿海的，沿岸的

参考例句：

• The ocean waves are slowly eating away the coastal rocks.大海的波浪慢慢地侵蚀着岸边的岩石。
• This country will fortify the coastal areas.该国将加强沿海地区的防御。

18 prone   

adj.(to)易于…的，很可能…的；俯卧的

参考例句：

• Some people are prone to jump to hasty conclusions.有些人往往作出轻率的结论。
• He is prone to lose his temper when people disagree with him.人家一不同意他的意见,他就发脾气。