美国国家公共电台 NPR--The U.S. dollar conquered the world. Is it at risk of losing its top spot?

The U.S. dollar conquered the world. Is it at risk of losing its top spot?

Transcript¹

You might just think of the dollar as the money in your wallet, the cash you use to buy your morning coffee.

But the dollar is much, much bigger than that.

The dollar is the world's currency: It dominates global business.

Economists³ call it the "global reserve currency," a fancy title the dollar got about 80 years ago that has brought some pretty serious perks⁴ to the U.S. economy.

But could the dollar get knocked off the top spot? There are challengers emerging, and history shows that countries whose currency dominated the globe can fall from that top spot pretty fast ... even over the course of a few days.

How it started: timing⁵ + muscle + lots of gold

The U.S. dollar did not luck its way into the top spot.

It was a carefully engineered plan that unfolded in the mountains of New Hampshire nearly 80 years ago. At the time the British Pound Sterling⁶ was the international currency. A title it had held for decades.

The dollar's rise happened pretty suddenly at the Bretton Woods International Monetary⁷ Conference in 1944. Bretton Woods was a gathering⁸ of world leaders at the end of World War II. They came together to try and establish an international system for trade and finance, to help bind⁹ the world together and increase prosperity for all.

Everyone agreed that in order to ease international trade, there needed to be a common currency, a standard everyone could use.

At the time of the conference, the British economy was in shambles¹⁰. The costs of fighting a war on its own soil had been enormous. It was clear that the British Pound Sterling could not be the currency everyone counted on.

The Bretton Woods gathering in 1944 cemented the U.S. dollar in as the world's reserve currency, replacing the British Pound Sterling

So the British pushed for a new currency that would solely¹¹ be used for inter-country trades: Economist² John Maynard Keynes, who was at Bretton Woods on behalf of the British, proposed the "Bancor" (a mix of the French work for bank, 'banc' and the French word for gold 'or) but also suggested "Orb¹²" and even ... "Unicorn¹³."

But the U.S. dollar left the Bancor, the Orb and the Unicorn in its dust. The U.S. was economically quite strong. It also had lots of gold in its vaults¹⁴, which made people feel like its wealth was backed up.

It used these advantages to help muscle the dollar in as the official currency of international business at the conference.

The perks of being the world's currency

Being the world's reserve currency essentially¹⁵ means the U.S. dollar is at the center of most of the business on Earth.

Example: If you're a clothing designer in Chile and you order cotton from Egypt for some shirts you plan to make, you will pay for that cotton in U.S. dollars. Not Chilean pesos and not Egyptian pounds.

To be clear, the U.S. isn't involved in that deal at all, but the U.S. dollar is. When international deals happen, they usually happen in dollars.

This is a big boost to the U.S. in all kinds of way: For example, it means domestic businesses have a home court (home currency) advantage when they do business overseas.

But as the Bretton Woods conference demonstrated, that top spot can slip away pretty fast

"We have an important advantage, which may whittle¹⁶ away slowly if we're not careful," says economist Michael Boskin, a former White House advisor¹⁷.

The challenges to the dollar

There are a couple reasons why the dollar's status is suddenly being talked about as at risk.

Earlier this year, China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and even Brazil started making trades in other currencies: The Chinese Yuan and the Russian ruble. This was a very direct challenge to the U.S. dollar's central position.

China has long been pushing to have its currency replace the dollar, but it's getting momentum¹⁸ now for a couple of possible reasons:

First: the debt ceiling. Being the currency everyone counts on to do business means people have to believe that your currency is reliable. That recent debt ceiling drama made the U.S. (and, by extension, the dollar) look potentially risky¹⁹ and unstable²⁰.

Using the dollar as an economic weapon

The debt ceiling is not at the heart of the recent spate²¹ of non-dollar trades, says Benn Steil, an economist with the Council on Foreign relations.

"The real issue is the U.S. government's increasing use of the dollar as a tool for financial sanctions," he says.

The dollar is so powerful, if you can't use it, you are essentially iced out of being able to do most business anywhere in the world.

The U.S. has used this as a nonviolent way to put pressure on countries: North Korea, Iran and most recently Russia. After the invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. said, 'No dollar for you!'

Steil says the economic impacts of those sanctions have been massive and other countries have noticed.

"Sanctions are an effective tool, but we have to be careful," he says. "It's like over-prescribing an effective antibiotic²². It encourages the development of new strains of bacteria that are resistant²³ to the antibiotic."

If you are a country that has a complicated relationship with the U.S., watching the effect of American financial sanctions on Russia is scary. It's been enough to push China, Saudi Arabia and others to make deals that get around the dollar, trying to chip away at its power

"This is not nearly as efficient as using the dollar," Steil says of these deals. "That can lead to a massive fragmentation in the global economy and a much less efficient and less productive global economy."

It's still all about the Benjamins... for now

Right now, the dollar has a lot of momentum and is not at any immediate²⁴ risk of losing its top spot, says economist Michael Boskin.

Still, he says momentum can change fast.

"Other countries in previous times have been the reserve currency and they fritter that away," he says. "We need to be very careful."

And right now, with so much global turmoil²⁵, China and others have started to see a possible opening to grab that top spot – or at least start to chip away at the U.S. dollar's dominance.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

3 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

4 perks   

额外津贴，附带福利，外快( perk的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Perks offered by the firm include a car and free health insurance. 公司给予的额外待遇包括一辆汽车和免费健康保险。
• Are there any perks that go with your job? 你的工作有什么津贴吗？

5 timing   

n.时间安排，时间选择

参考例句：

• The timing of the meeting is not convenient.会议的时间安排不合适。
• The timing of our statement is very opportune.我们发表声明选择的时机很恰当。

6 sterling   

adj.英币的(纯粹的，货真价实的)；n.英国货币(英镑)

参考例句：

• Could you tell me the current rate for sterling, please?能否请您告诉我现行英国货币的兑换率？
• Sterling has recently been strong,which will help to abate inflationary pressures.英国货币最近非常坚挺，这有助于减轻通胀压力。

7 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

8 gathering   

n.集会，聚会，聚集

参考例句：

• He called on Mr. White to speak at the gathering.他请怀特先生在集会上讲话。
• He is on the wing gathering material for his novels.他正忙于为他的小说收集资料。

9 bind   

vt.捆，包扎；装订；约束；使凝固；vi.变硬

参考例句：

• I will let the waiter bind up the parcel for you.我让服务生帮你把包裹包起来。
• He wants a shirt that does not bind him.他要一件不使他觉得过紧的衬衫。

10 shambles   

n.混乱之处；废墟

参考例句：

• My room is a shambles.我房间里乱七八糟。
• The fighting reduced the city to a shambles.这场战斗使这座城市成了一片废墟。

11 solely   

adv.仅仅，唯一地

参考例句：

• Success should not be measured solely by educational achievement.成功与否不应只用学业成绩来衡量。
• The town depends almost solely on the tourist trade.这座城市几乎完全靠旅游业维持。

12 orb   

n.太阳；星球；v.弄圆；成球形

参考例句：

• The blue heaven,holding its one golden orb,poured down a crystal wash of warm light.蓝蓝的天空托着金色的太阳，洒下一片水晶般明亮温暖的光辉。
• It is an emanation from the distant orb of immortal light.它是从远处那个发出不灭之光的天体上放射出来的。

13 unicorn   

n.(传说中的)独角兽

参考例句：

• The unicorn is an imaginary beast.独角兽是幻想出来的动物。
• I believe unicorn was once living in the world.我相信独角兽曾经生活在这个世界。

14 vaults   

n.拱顶( vault的名词复数 )；地下室；撑物跳高；墓穴

参考例句：

• It was deposited in the vaults of a bank. 它存在一家银行的保险库里。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• They think of viruses that infect an organization from the outside.They envision hackers breaking into their information vaults. 他们考虑来自外部的感染公司的病毒，他们设想黑客侵入到信息宝库中。 来自《简明英汉词典》

15 essentially   

adv.本质上，实质上，基本上

参考例句：

• Really great men are essentially modest.真正的伟人大都很谦虚。
• She is an essentially selfish person.她本质上是个自私自利的人。

16 whittle   

v.削（木头），削减；n.屠刀

参考例句：

• They are trying to whittle down our salaries.他们正着手削减我们的薪水。
• He began to whittle away all powers of the government that he did not control.他开始削弱他所未能控制的一切政府权力。

17 advisor   

n.顾问，指导老师，劝告者

参考例句：

• They employed me as an advisor.他们聘请我当顾问。
• The professor is engaged as a technical advisor.这位教授被聘请为技术顾问。

18 momentum   

n.动力，冲力，势头；动量

参考例句：

• We exploit the energy and momentum conservation laws in this way.我们就是这样利用能量和动量守恒定律的。
• The law of momentum conservation could supplant Newton's third law.动量守恒定律可以取代牛顿第三定律。

19 risky   

adj.有风险的，冒险的

参考例句：

• It may be risky but we will chance it anyhow.这可能有危险，但我们无论如何要冒一冒险。
• He is well aware how risky this investment is.他心里对这项投资的风险十分清楚。

20 unstable   

adj.不稳定的，易变的

参考例句：

• This bookcase is too unstable to hold so many books.这书橱很不结实，装不了这么多书。
• The patient's condition was unstable.那患者的病情不稳定。

21 spate   

n.泛滥，洪水，突然的一阵

参考例句：

• Police are investigating a spate of burglaries in the area.警察正在调查这一地区发生的大量盗窃案。
• Refugees crossed the border in full spate.难民大量地越过了边境。

22 antibiotic   

adj.抗菌的；n.抗生素

参考例句：

• The doctor said that I should take some antibiotic.医生说我应该服些用抗生素。
• Antibiotic can be used against infection.抗菌素可以用来防止感染。

23 resistant   

adj.(to)抵抗的，有抵抗力的

参考例句：

• Many pests are resistant to the insecticide.许多害虫对这种杀虫剂有抵抗力。
• They imposed their government by force on the resistant population.他们以武力把自己的统治强加在持反抗态度的人民头上。

24 immediate   

adj.立即的；直接的，最接近的；紧靠的

参考例句：

• His immediate neighbours felt it their duty to call.他的近邻认为他们有责任去拜访。
• We declared ourselves for the immediate convocation of the meeting.我们主张立即召开这个会议。

25 turmoil   

n.骚乱，混乱，动乱

参考例句：

• His mind was in such a turmoil that he couldn't get to sleep.内心的纷扰使他无法入睡。
• The robbery put the village in a turmoil.抢劫使全村陷入混乱。