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Global Warming and Ozone1 全球变暖和臭氧
Could the coming century bring a new threat to the ozone layer? Discover one scientist's model of the effect of global warming and greenhouse gases on ozone -- on today's Earth and Sky.
DB: This is Earth and Sky.
JB: After 30 years of steady decline, Earth's ozone layer is thinner but seems to be stable. A ban on ozone-depleting CFCs is largely responsible. Computer modeling gives reason to hope for an almost full recovery of Earth's ozone layer within 60 years. But this sort of modeling is difficult -- and its predictions aren't iron-clad.
DB: And some models show the ozone layer could face a new threat -- from global warming. Drew Shindell, an atmospheric2 scientist at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City, talked with us about his computer models of climate.
Drew Shindell: So we get this combination of temperature change and methane3 changes, water vapor4 changes, we have changes in reactive nitrogen species -- which come from another greenhouse gas -- and all of these things put together end up leading to a net decrease in the amount of ozone in the lower stratosphere.
JB: So if the world gets warmer, stratospheric ozone might be depleted5 again -- by 5 to 10 percent -- a return to today's low levels. What could be done then to protect the ozone layer?
Drew Shindell: Well, we would have to control greenhouse gas emissions6 and certainly that is a much more complicated problem -- and a much bigger change in economic systems and such -- than it was to change the CFCs.
DB: Special thanks today to NASA's Earth Science Enterprise. We're Block and Byrd for Earth and Sky.
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1 ozone | |
n.臭氧,新鲜空气 | |
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2 atmospheric | |
adj.大气的,空气的;大气层的;大气所引起的 | |
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3 methane | |
n.甲烷,沼气 | |
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4 vapor | |
n.蒸汽,雾气 | |
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5 depleted | |
adj. 枯竭的, 废弃的 动词deplete的过去式和过去分词 | |
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6 emissions | |
排放物( emission的名词复数 ); 散发物(尤指气体) | |
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