华尔街的赚钱经 鱼和熊掌兼顾的投资智慧(2)

Deflation

通货紧缩型投资

Portfolio¹ preparation is easier for deflationists. Put a chunk² of money into long-term Treasury³ bonds and much of the rest into cash and some municipal bonds.

通货紧缩论者要构建投资组合相对更为容易可将大部分钱购置长期美国国债，剩余的钱，一部分存现，一部分购入市政债券。

If broad-based deflation materializes, long-term Treasury papers are likely to surge. The bonds' fixed-income stream, meanwhile, would be worth increasingly more relative to falling consumer prices.

如果大范围通货紧缩成为现实，长期国债便极有可能会升值。而与此同时，债券的固定收益同消费价格下跌的关联日益密切。

Round out your deflation portfolio with a big slug of cash. Though it won't generate much of a return in a low-rate, deflationary environment, cash in the bank will gain value as prices fall.

如果你对经济的预期是通货紧缩，那么就在你的投资组合中保留大量的现金吧。把现金存在银行，在低利率、通货紧缩的环境下产生不了大的收益，不过随着物价的下跌，存在银行里的现金实际上是升值的。

Insurance Component⁴: Commodities react most drastically to surprise inflation, so they should be part of your insurance. If inflation arises, companies such Coca-Cola, tobacco giant Altria, and toothpaste maker⁵ Colgate-Palmolive will have some pricing power.

保险无素：假使通胀不期而至，大宗商品期货会有最大的收益，所以应当将其作为一项保险撞施。如果通胀爆发，可囚可乐公司、烟草巨头奥驰亚集团、牙膏生产商高露洁棕榄等企业便有了定价权。

Goldilocks Economy

金发女孩经济型

Maybe, just, maybe, world bankers will get this right. and the economy will experience neither severe inflation nor severe deflation.

可能，仅仅是可能一一全世界的银行家都很了解这一点——经济既没有严重的通货膨胀也没有严重的通货紧缩。

"We think most likely the central banks of the World will get this close enough to right we will settle in close to a relatively⁶ benign⁷ inflation rate of between 1.5% and 2.5%," says Aaron Gurwitz, head of global investment strategy at Barclays Wealth.

巴克莱全球投资策略主管亚伦·格威茨说，“我们认为，各国央行最终极有可能将通胀率保持在相对温和的水平，即介于1.5%至2.5%之间。”

"In such a 'Goldilocks' scenario⁸--where the economy is neither too hot nor too cold—risky assets would do best, so equities⁹ and bonds with some equity¹⁰ characteristics should receive the emphasis," says Scott Wolle, portfolio manager of the AIM Balanced-Risk Allocation Fund.

AIM Balanced-Risk Allocation基金投资组合经理斯科特·沃勒说：“在‘金发女孩’经济时期一一经济既不过热也不过冷，风险资产会有最好的表现，股票和带有股票性质的债券应当是关注的重点。”

For the bond component, pick a fund such as the Fidelity¹¹ Total Bond fund that largely owns high-grade, intermediate-term corporate¹² bonds and mortgages, along with government and and agency debt.

债券部分可以选择一支基金，比如富达债券总指数基金，该基金持有高等级中期企业债券、抵押贷款及政府和政府机构债务。

Insurance Component: Just in case the Goldilocks scenario is wrong , you will need insurance against either inflation or deflation. Pick up inflation protection through a commodity ETF, and deflation protection with long-term Treasury papers. Cash also is OK in either situation.

保险元素·假设关于金发女孩经济的预期是错误的，那么你需要抵御通货膨胀和通货紧缩的双重凤险。可以购入大宗商品交易所买卖基金来应对通货膨胀、长期国债来应对通货紧缩。现金则是可以同时应对两种情况的法宝。

1 portfolio   

n.公事包；文件夹；大臣及部长职位

参考例句：

• He remembered her because she was carrying a large portfolio.他因为她带着一个大公文包而记住了她。
• He resigned his portfolio.他辞去了大臣职务。

2 chunk   

n.厚片，大块，相当大的部分（数量）

参考例句：

• They had to be careful of floating chunks of ice.他们必须当心大块浮冰。
• The company owns a chunk of farmland near Gatwick Airport.该公司拥有盖特威克机场周边的大片农田。

3 treasury   

n.宝库；国库，金库；文库

参考例句：

• The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals.财政部原则上反对这些提案。
• This book is a treasury of useful information.这本书是有价值的信息宝库。

4 component   

n.组成部分，成分，元件；adj.组成的，合成的

参考例句：

• Each component is carefully checked before assembly.每个零件在装配前都经过仔细检查。
• Blade and handle are the component parts of a knife.刀身和刀柄是一把刀的组成部分。

5 maker   

n.制造者，制造商

参考例句：

• He is a trouble maker，You must be distant with him.他是个捣蛋鬼，你不要跟他在一起。
• A cabinet maker must be a master craftsman.家具木工必须是技艺高超的手艺人。

6 relatively   

adv.比较...地，相对地

参考例句：

• The rabbit is a relatively recent introduction in Australia.兔子是相对较新引入澳大利亚的物种。
• The operation was relatively painless.手术相对来说不痛。

7 benign   

adj.善良的，慈祥的；良性的，无危险的

参考例句：

• The benign weather brought North America a bumper crop.温和的气候给北美带来大丰收。
• Martha is a benign old lady.玛莎是个仁慈的老妇人。

8 scenario   

n.剧本，脚本；概要

参考例句：

• But the birth scenario is not completely accurate.然而分娩脚本并非完全准确的。
• This is a totally different scenario.这是完全不同的剧本。

9 equities   

普通股，股票

参考例句：

• These are invested mainly in the OECD bonds and equities. 这些资产主要投资于经济合作及发展组织的债券与股票市场。
• They are also advantage of the global rebound in equities. 它们还在利用全球股市反弹的机会。

10 equity   

n.公正，公平，（无固定利息的）股票

参考例句：

• They shared the work of the house with equity.他们公平地分担家务。
• To capture his equity,Murphy must either sell or refinance.要获得资产净值，墨菲必须出售或者重新融资。

11 fidelity   

n.忠诚，忠实；精确

参考例句：

• There is nothing like a dog's fidelity.没有什么能比得上狗的忠诚。
• His fidelity and industry brought him speedy promotion.他的尽职及勤奋使他很快地得到晋升。

12 corporate   

adj.共同的，全体的；公司的，企业的

参考例句：

• This is our corporate responsibility.这是我们共同的责任。
• His corporate's life will be as short as a rabbit's tail.他的公司的寿命是兔子尾巴长不了。