经济学人01:漏洞百出的防火墙

 　　Finance and Economics;The euro crisis;A firewall full of holes;

　　财经;欧元危机;漏洞百出的防火墙;

　　The euro zone's rescue strategy still does not add up;

　　欧元区救助策略依然一盘散沙;

　　There is a new swagger among European financial officials these days. As bond spreads narrow, share prices rise and the euro strengthens, many policymakers are convinced the crisis has been solved. At a G20 gathering¹ of finance ministers in Mexico City on February 25th-26th, for instance, the European delegates were touting² their success. It is a far cry from the browbeatings they suffered during 2011.

　　当前，欧洲财政官员们流露出新的自大情绪。随着债券息差缩小，股票价格上涨，欧元势头强劲，众多决策者坚信这场危机已经终结。如2月25日-26日在墨西哥城召开的20国财长会议上，欧洲代表不断吹嘘他们的成功。这与他们2011年危机中恐惧的样子可真是天壤之别。

　　This mood of confidence can largely be credited to the European Central Bank (ECB) and its provision of liquidity³ to banks. But add in Greece’s second bail-out deal, tough new euro-zone fiscal⁴ rules, bold reforms in Italy and Spain and—so the argument goes—it is clear that the Europeans are serious about fixing their problems. Just in case, the imminent⁵ introduction of the European Stability Mechanism⁶ (ESM), a permanent rescue fund, as well as an increase in the IMF’s resources, also mean that a solid firewall is being erected⁷ to cope with another conflagration⁸.

　　这种自信情绪很大程度上要归因于欧洲央行及其向银行提供的流动资金。但是，一些人还考虑到第二轮对希腊的救助、强硬的欧元区新财政政策以及意大利和西班牙大刀阔斧的改革，因此出现了一种说法：欧洲显然是真的想解决问题。为了以防万一，欧洲即将推出一项永久救助基金——欧洲稳定机制（ESM），国际货币基金组织也将增加其资金，这意味着一道坚实的防火墙正在竖起，以应对另一场“大火”。

　　Unfortunately, with one exception, every part of that argument is weaker than it looks. The exception is the ECB’s Long Term Refinancing Operation (LTRO), which provides banks with three-year liquidity at its main interest rate, currently 1%, against a wide array of collateral⁹. On February 29th the ECB announced that it had lent another EURO530 billion ($712 billion), taking the amount of three-year money it has pumped into the banking¹⁰ system over the past two months or so to more than EURO1 trillion (see chart). It is hardly surprising that markets are perkier.

　　可惜的是，这种说法的每个方面都没有看起来那么坚实，但其中有一项是例外。这个例外就是欧洲中央银行的长期再融资操作（LTRO），LTRO按其主导利率，在银行提供大量的抵押品作为担保的情况下，向其提供三年期流动资金来，当前主导利率为1%。2月29日，欧洲央行宣布又借出5300亿欧元（7120亿美元），这一举措使其在近两个多月的时间内向银行系统注入的三年期资金超过1万亿欧元（见图）。难怪市场会变得更加傲慢。

　　The amount lent at the second auction¹¹ was slightly higher than expected, and went to far more banks than the initial auction in December. Since so many small banks have now tapped LTRO, hopes are rising that as well as slowing the pace of bank deleveraging and propping¹² up sovereign-bond markets, the liquidity may encourage new lending to the real economy.

　　第二次竞标的贷款量略高于此前预期，获得贷款的银行数量也大大超过12月的首次竞标。LTRO不仅放缓了银行减债的步伐，支撑了主权债券市场，同时也因为众多小型银行现已从LTRO获得资金，人们越来越期望流动资金能够刺激新贷款流向实体经济。

　　It might, but all that money could also have nasty long-term side-effects. Hawks¹³ at the ECB are already muttering about the problem of banks becoming addicted¹⁴ to cheap central-bank funds. And by encouraging Italian or Spanish banks to buy their governments’ bonds, LTRO reinforces the close links between the peripheral¹⁵ economies’ sovereign debt and the health of their banks.

　　三年期贷款可能有这种作用，但也可能产生长期的负面影响。欧洲央行的鹰派已经开始抱怨各国银行沉溺于央行的廉价基金。三年期贷款刺激了意大利或者西班牙用所获资金购买国债，将次要经济体主权债务与其银行健康状况捆绑得更紧。

　　LTRO has bought time, however. So, too, has Greece’s latest rescue package. Germany’s Bundestag approved its share of the funds on February 27th. The temporary downgrade of Greek bonds to “selective default”, as a result of moves to restructure private creditors’ debt, has caused few ripples¹⁶. In the short term a chaotic¹⁷ default has almost certainly been avoided. But few believe the Greek rescue plan will actually work. Eventually Greece will either need more help from its rescuers or will face default and perhaps an exit from the euro.

　　但是，LTRO买的是时间。最新一次希腊救助计划也是如此。2月27日，德国联邦议院批准了德国在该基金中承担的份额。希腊调整私人债权人债务的一系列动作导致其债券被临时降级为“选择性违约”，但却没有什么影响。短期看来，希腊几乎不可能出现违约动荡。但是，也几乎没有人相信希腊救助计划真的管用。最终，希腊要么向救助者寻求更多帮助，要么面临违约，也许还要退出欧元区。

　　What matters, therefore, is how well the euro zone uses the time it has bought itself. The signs are worrying. Policymakers’ overwhelming (and misguided) focus on budget austerity is facing increasing resistance. Spain announced on February 27th that its 2011 budget deficit¹⁸, at 8.5% of GDP, was even bigger than first expected. It wants to renegotiate the 2012 deficit target of 4.4% of GDP.

　　因此，关键是看欧元区怎么用好自己买到的时间。现在的迹象令人担忧。决策者误入歧途，过分强调预算紧缩，现在面临了越来越多的抵抗。2月27日，西班牙宣布其2011年预算赤字为GDP的8.5%，高于先期预测。西班牙欲就其2012年的赤字目标进行重新协商，该目标为GDP的4.4%。

　　More worrying still is the lack of progress in building permanent defenses against a loss of confidence in another sovereign’s bonds. Much faith is placed in the ESM, to be launched on July 1st. This EURO500 billion fund is supposedly stronger than the current iteration, the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), because it is enshrined in legal treaties and because EURO80 billion of its capital will eventually be paid in, whereas the EFSF relies on guarantees. Although Germany still resists, most euro-zone members hope to run both funds simultaneously¹⁹, which implies a theoretical cash-chest of EURO750 billion.

　　更令人担心的还是针对另一种主权债券信心缺失的永久防御建设未取得进展。很多人寄希望于7月1日将启动的欧洲稳定机制（ESM）。这笔5000亿欧元的资金可能比当前的机制——欧洲金融稳定基金(EFSF)——更为有力，因为ESM有法律条约作保障，并且其800亿欧元资本最终会兑现，而不是像EFSF那样只靠担保。尽管德国依然反对，但大部分欧元区成员国都希望两项基金同时运行，若同时运行，将意味着理论上会有7500亿欧元的基金。

　　The trouble is that this money is not actually to hand. The EFSF, whose AA+ credit rating was put on negative watch by Standard & Poor’s this week, must find its funds in the bond markets, and there is little evidence that it can raise a lot of money fast. And cash-strapped countries, such as France, are reluctant to pay in a lot of capital to the ESM quickly.

　　问题是这笔钱还没有到手。信用等级为AA+的EFSF本周被标准普尔公司设为负面观察，EFSF必须要在债券市场找到资本，但是还没有迹象表明EFSF可以快速筹到巨款。而资金短缺的国家，如法国，不愿意立即向ESM大量注资。

　　The Europeans’ reluctance²⁰ to put a hefty amount of real money at risk has weakened the second part of the firewall, the IMF’s resources. In Mexico City G20 members made it clear that they would not stump²¹ up cash for the fund until there was a “credible” commitment from Europe.

　　欧洲国家不愿意冒险投入大量现款，这一点削弱了防火墙的第二部分——国际货币基金组织（IMF）的资金源。在墨西哥城召开的G20会议上，成员国明确表示在欧洲国家做出可靠承诺前，他们不会向该基金注资。

　　Worse, even if it were fully²² in place, this is still a rather flimsy sort of defence. Relying on vast infusions²³ of money from the IMF could actually worsen the problems of a country like Italy, since the fund’s presumed preferred-creditor status（IMF） would push private bondholders further down the pecking order. Nor are the amounts being talked about enough to remove the risk of panic. As Willem Buiter of Citigroup points out, the weaker members of the euro zone collectively need to borrow some EURO2 trillion over the next two years.

　　更不妙的是，即使资金全部就绪，这也只能是一层脆弱的抵御。事实上，依靠IMF灌入大量资金对于像意大利这样的国家来说会将问题恶化，因为该基金的预期优先债权人身份会将私人债券持有人推向更低的社会等级。这笔数目也不足以消除出现大恐慌的风险。正如花期公司的维勒姆?布提尔指出的那样，在未来两年内，欧元区较脆弱的成员国共需借款2万亿欧元左右。

　　To get properly on top of its debt problem, Europe needs to be bolder. A growing chorus argues that this must entail²⁴ some form of joint²⁵ liability for countries’ debts. A proposal from the German Council of Economic Experts for a European Debt Redemption Fund, which would mutualize all euro-zone members’ debts above 60% of GDP, with strict rules to pay them off over 25 years, is gaining traction²⁶ in some quarters. Germany itself remains²⁷ staunchly opposed to anything that smells of Eurobonds, and the current period of calm has only reinforced that resistance. Meanwhile, the clock ticks.

　　要想恰当地处理好债务问题，欧洲还需要更加大刀阔斧。越来越多的人认为欧洲国家需要为债务问题负连带责任。德国经济专家委员会提出的欧洲债务赎回基金的建议在部分地区得到了响应。该基金吸收了欧元区各国债务占GDP 60%以外的部分，制定严格的制度使他们在25年内还清。德国本身坚决反对任何带有欧洲债券味道的东西，当前的风平浪静只是增强了这种抵抗。与此同时，钟表指针滴滴答答地走着。

1 gathering   

n.集会，聚会，聚集

参考例句：

• He called on Mr. White to speak at the gathering.他请怀特先生在集会上讲话。
• He is on the wing gathering material for his novels.他正忙于为他的小说收集资料。

2 touting   

v.兜售( tout的现在分词 )；招揽；侦查；探听赛马情报

参考例句：

• He's been touting his novel around publishers for years. 他几年来一直到处找出版商兜售自己的小说。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Technology industry leaders are touting cars as a hot area for growth. 科技产业领袖吹捧为增长热点地区的汽车。 来自互联网

3 liquidity   

n.流动性，偿债能力，流动资产

参考例句：

• The bank has progressively increased its liquidity.银行逐渐地增加其流动资产。
• The demand for and the supply of credit is closely linked to changes in liquidity.信用的供求和流动资金的变化有密切关系。

4 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

5 imminent   

adj.即将发生的，临近的，逼近的

参考例句：

• The black clounds show that a storm is imminent.乌云预示暴风雨即将来临。
• The country is in imminent danger.国难当头。

6 mechanism   

n.机械装置；机构，结构

参考例句：

• The bones and muscles are parts of the mechanism of the body.骨骼和肌肉是人体的组成部件。
• The mechanism of the machine is very complicated.这台机器的结构是非常复杂的。

7 ERECTED   

adj. 直立的，竖立的，笔直的 vt. 使 ... 直立，建立

参考例句：

• A monument to him was erected in St Paul's Cathedral. 在圣保罗大教堂为他修了一座纪念碑。
• A monument was erected to the memory of that great scientist. 树立了一块纪念碑纪念那位伟大的科学家。

8 conflagration   

n.建筑物或森林大火

参考例句：

• A conflagration in 1947 reduced 90 percent of the houses to ashes.1947年的一场大火，使90%的房屋化为灰烬。
• The light of that conflagration will fade away.这熊熊烈火会渐渐熄灭。

9 collateral   

adj.平行的；旁系的；n.担保品

参考例句：

• Many people use personal assets as collateral for small business loans.很多人把个人财产用作小额商业贷款的抵押品。
• Most people here cannot borrow from banks because they lack collateral.由于拿不出东西作为抵押，这里大部分人无法从银行贷款。

10 banking   

n.银行业，银行学，金融业

参考例句：

• John is launching his son on a career in banking.约翰打算让儿子在银行界谋一个新职位。
• He possesses an extensive knowledge of banking.他具有广博的银行业务知识。

11 auction   

n.拍卖；拍卖会；vt.拍卖

参考例句：

• They've put the contents of their house up for auction.他们把房子里的东西全都拿去拍卖了。
• They bought a new minibus with the proceeds from the auction.他们用拍卖得来的钱买了一辆新面包车。

12 propping   

支撑

参考例句：

• You can usually find Jack propping up the bar at his local. 你常常可以看见杰克频繁出没于他居住的那家酒店。
• The government was accused of propping up declining industries. 政府被指责支持日益衰败的产业。

13 hawks   

鹰( hawk的名词复数 )； 鹰派人物，主战派人物

参考例句：

• Two hawks were hover ing overhead. 两只鹰在头顶盘旋。
• Both hawks and doves have expanded their conditions for ending the war. 鹰派和鸽派都充分阐明了各自的停战条件。

14 addicted   

adj.沉溺于....的，对...上瘾的

参考例句：

• He was addicted to heroin at the age of 17.他17岁的时候对海洛因上了瘾。
• She's become addicted to love stories.她迷上了爱情小说。

15 peripheral   

adj.周边的，外围的

参考例句：

• We dealt with the peripheral aspects of a cost reduction program.我们谈到了降低成本计划的一些外围问题。
• The hotel provides the clerk the service and the peripheral traveling consultation.旅舍提供票务服务和周边旅游咨询。

16 ripples   

逐渐扩散的感觉( ripple的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The moon danced on the ripples. 月亮在涟漪上舞动。
• The sea leaves ripples on the sand. 海水在沙滩上留下了波痕。

17 chaotic   

adj.混沌的，一片混乱的，一团糟的

参考例句：

• Things have been getting chaotic in the office recently.最近办公室的情况越来越乱了。
• The traffic in the city was chaotic.这城市的交通糟透了。

18 deficit   

n.亏空，亏损；赤字，逆差

参考例句：

• The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事们报告赤字为250万美元。
• We have a great deficit this year.我们今年有很大亏损。

19 simultaneously   

adv.同时发生地，同时进行地

参考例句：

• The radar beam can track a number of targets almost simultaneously.雷达波几乎可以同时追着多个目标。
• The Windows allow a computer user to execute multiple programs simultaneously.Windows允许计算机用户同时运行多个程序。

20 reluctance   

n.厌恶，讨厌，勉强，不情愿

参考例句：

• The police released Andrew with reluctance.警方勉强把安德鲁放走了。
• He showed the greatest reluctance to make a reply.他表示很不愿意答复。

21 stump   

n.残株，烟蒂，讲演台；v.砍断，蹒跚而走

参考例句：

• He went on the stump in his home state.他到故乡所在的州去发表演说。
• He used the stump as a table.他把树桩用作桌子。

22 fully   

adv.完全地，全部地，彻底地；充分地

参考例句：

• The doctor asked me to breathe in,then to breathe out fully.医生让我先吸气，然后全部呼出。
• They soon became fully integrated into the local community.他们很快就完全融入了当地人的圈子。

23 infusions   

n.沏或泡成的浸液（如茶等）( infusion的名词复数 )；注入，注入物

参考例句：

• Intravenous infusions are also used to administer medications. 静脉输液也可作为一种给药方法。 来自辞典例句
• INTERPRETATION: GKI infusions significantly reduced plasma glucose concentrations and blood pressure. 结论：静脉滴注GKI显著降低血压和血糖浓度。 来自互联网

24 entail   

vt.使承担，使成为必要，需要

参考例句：

• Such a decision would entail a huge political risk.这样的决定势必带来巨大的政治风险。
• This job would entail your learning how to use a computer.这工作将需要你学会怎样用计算机。

25 joint   

adj.联合的，共同的；n.关节，接合处；v.连接，贴合

参考例句：

• I had a bad fall,which put my shoulder out of joint.我重重地摔了一跤，肩膀脫臼了。
• We wrote a letter in joint names.我们联名写了封信。

26 traction   

n.牵引；附着摩擦力

参考例句：

• I'll show you how the traction is applied.我会让你看如何做这种牵引。
• She's injured her back and is in traction for a month.她背部受伤，正在作一个月的牵引治疗。

27 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。