经济学人:欧洲危机 大国间的政治博弈

 　　Euro crisis

　　欧洲危机

　　The end of the euro’s Indian summer

　　欧元区小阳春之末

　　After a few sunny weeks, a political and economic storm is battering¹ the euro zone once again度过几个星期的好日子后，政治经济风暴再度席卷欧元区THE sugar-rush brought on by the European Central Bank’s pledge to intervene in bond markets to help troubled euro-zone countries—some diplomats² call it “Mario Draghi’s ice cream”—was bound to fade at some point. But nobody expected it to fade quite so suddenly this week.

　　欧洲中央银行承诺干预债券市场用来帮助欧元区国家摆脱困境，这些“短暂的春天”被一些外交官称为“马里奥.德拉吉（Mario Draghi）的冰淇淋”，在某种程度上注定会失效的。但没有人预料到它在本周消退得如突然。

　　Anti-austerity protests in Spain and Greece, uncertainty³ over their bail-out terms, the resurgence⁴ of Catalan secessionism, the likely departure of Mario Monti as Italy’s prime minister next year, obstacles to creating a credible⁵ banking⁶ union (see Charlemagne) and a darkening economic outlook all combined to dispel⁷ hope that the euro zone was out of the woods. Spanish and Italian bond yields shot back up and European stockmarkets fell.

　　西班牙和希腊的对紧缩的抗议活动,他们获得救助条件的不确定性,加泰罗尼亚分离主义的复苏,可能离任的马意大利总理Mario Monti（马里奥·蒙蒂），以及建立一个安全可靠银行联盟(见Charlemagne专栏)的诸多障碍和经济前景的暗淡无光，所有这些不利因素都预示着欧元区走出困境的希望越来越渺茫。西班牙和意大利两国债券收益虽有所回升，但欧洲股市整体却已跌入谷底。

　　The summer’s panic about the euro zone had been assuaged⁸ by the ECB’s announcement of plans to buy unlimited⁹ amounts of short-dated debt of vulnerable countries such as Spain and Italy. This backstop would depend on their governments first seeking assistance from the euro-zone rescue funds, and then submitting to a formal, externally monitored reform programme.

　　今年夏天和欧元有关的恐慌，在欧洲央行的一份申明中——计划向西班牙、意大利等经济危机较为严重的国家，购买大量其无限的短期债务，使得其困境有所缓解。这一担保会取决于他们的政府首先向欧元区救助基金申请帮助, 然后提交一份正式并接受国外监管的改革计划。

　　Both out of national pride, and because Germany does not want Spain to ask for more money, the Spanish government has hesitated about taking the ECB’s outstretched hand. Behind European officials’ public praise for the deficit¹⁰-cutting measures taken by Mariano Rajoy, the Spanish prime minister, there is dismay over his ineptness¹¹ in handling the crisis, not least the ever-changing estimates of the money needed to recapitalise Spain’s banks.

　　这些都出自于民族自豪感,因为德国不希望西班牙借贷更多资金, 西班牙政府对于欧洲央行提供的资金帮助犹豫不定。在欧洲各国对于西班牙首相马里亚诺·拉霍伊（Mariano Rajoy）的赤字削减政策一片赞扬声的背后，这位西班牙首相在处理这些危机时总是让人们对他的无能感到失望，特别是在西班牙银行重组所耗费的资金的数目上，这个数字总是一而再再而三地发生改变。

　　As The Economist¹² went to press, Mr Rajoy was due to unveil a budget for next year and a new set of structural¹³ reforms, as well as the results of a detailed¹⁴ assessment¹⁵ of Spain’s bank-recapitalisation needs. These have been co-ordinated with European officials, perhaps to allow Mr Rajoy to claim that Spain will face no fresh conditions beyond the ones he has announced himself. But the gains from any such choreography have been offset¹⁶ by clashes on the streets of Madrid during anti-austerity protests and by the resurgence of Catalan nationalism. Mr Rajoy’s attempt to rein¹⁷ in spending in Spain’s autonomous¹⁸ regions has prompted Artur Mas, the president of Catalonia, to call an election on November 25th, after his demand for more tax autonomy was rebuffed. Mr Mas is talking of holding a referendum on independence, which could throw Spain into a constitutional crisis on top of its economic one.

　　正当《经济学人》印刷之时,拉霍伊将公布一个下一年预算和一套新的结构改革,以及一个西班牙的银行资本重组的详细的评估结果。这些都需要与欧洲官员协调,也许是为了让拉霍伊先生声明,西班牙将不再对已声明的条件外另加新的条件。但是，由于反紧缩抗议期间，马德里街巷的冲突，及加泰罗尼亚民族主义的复苏，任何预算之中的收益都已经被抵消了。拉霍伊先生试图控制在西班牙自治区的支出的想法，刺激到泰罗尼亚地区长官Artur Mas ,在拉霍伊要求更多自治权遭到拒绝后，他提出11月25日举行一次选举的意见。而Artur Mas先生所提出的举行独立公投,可能使得西班牙不仅要面临经济行危机，又即将陷入宪法危机。

　　If Mr Rajoy’s stock in European capitals has fallen, that of Antonis Samaras, the Greek prime minister, has risen. Once reviled¹⁹ for resisting austerity while in opposition²⁰, the conservative leader has, since his election in June, impressed fellow leaders with a new-found zeal²¹ for fiscal²² discipline and reform. Yet it will be hard to reconcile Mr Samaras’s call for an extra two years to bring down the deficit with creditors’ refusal to lend him more money, in effect a third bail-out.

　　如果拉霍伊先生在欧洲各国政要的声望已经下跌,那么希腊总理Antonis Samaras将会逆势上升。这位反对派保守党领袖向来在抵制紧缩中被诟病,然而他在今年6月的选举中上任以来财政纪律和改革上的果断干练风格, 给各派领导人留下了深刻的印象。然而，一方面Samaras要求延长两年时间以缓解财政赤字，另一方面希腊的债权人又拒绝继续向其借贷资金（这其实是第三次援助计划）。

　　Mr Samaras is caught between the rescuers’ demands for more spending cuts and boiling anger on the streets. Police fired tear gas at hooded²⁴ protesters hurling²⁵ petrol bombs on September 26th, the day of a general strike, while tens of thousands of demonstrators outside the Greek parliament shouted “EU, IMF Out!”. European officials say much now depends on whether, after some massaging²⁶ of Greece’s figures, the IMF can be cajoled into declaring its gargantuan²⁷ debt to be “sustainable”. The fund, for its part, is privately²⁸ urging euro-zone countries to write off some of their loans to Greece, but that is unlikely until after Germany’s election next year.

　　Samaras 现在被夹在援助者要求更大程度地减少开支和希腊民众对此要求沸腾的怒火之间。在9月26日这天的大罢工中，警察向蒙面投掷汽油炸弹的抗议者发射了催泪弹, 而成千上万的示威者在希腊议会大楼外高喊“欧盟、国际货币基金组织滚出去！”。欧洲官员表示,现在大部分取决于，国际货币基金组织经过希腊的‘按摩’是否相信并宣布其庞大的债务是“可持续的”。该基金组织,就其本身而言,在私下敦促欧元区国家放弃他们对希腊的债权,但是这到明年德国大选之前都是不可能的。

　　In Italy there is nervousness about the course of still-fragile reforms after the technocratic²⁹ prime minister, Mario Monti, declared that he would not seek to stay in office beyond general elections due next spring. Mr Monti told CNN: “I think it’s important that the whole political game resumes in Italy, hopefully with a higher degree of responsibility and maturity³⁰.” Given Italy’s politics, and the reforms that Italy still has to undertake, that is asking a lot.

　　而在意大利，学者型总理Mario Monti宣布在明年的大选中，将按照原计划不会寻求连任，而举国上下都对还未完成稳定的改革进程还有些担心。Monti对CNN（美国有线新闻网）称: “在我看来，意大利政治博弈的重启是很重要的，希望时机成熟的时候，会实行新的制度，与此同时还需要高度的责任感。”但是考虑到意大利政治现状，和现在仍在进行中的改革，这个似乎有点困难。

　　Confidence in the future of the euro is hardly being helped by signs that Germany and other creditor²³ countries are backtracking on last June’s summit deal to create a new euro-zone bank supervisor³¹ and, thereafter, to recapitalise troubled banks directly, in countries such as Spain and Italy, with money from a euro-zone rescue fund. Along with the Netherlands and Finland, Germany now wants direct recapitalisation to exclude “legacy” assets. Karl Whelan, a prominent Irish economist, summed it up with a blog post headlined: “Germany to Spain and Ireland: drop dead”.

　　去年六月峰会上，德国和其他债权国达成创建一个新欧元区银行监管机构的协议，并希望借此通过欧元区救助基金来直接重组西班牙、意大利等国的问题银行。而今这些国家开始背弃这一协议，这一信号丝毫无助于增强大家对于欧元前景的信心，因此，就算有欧元区援助基金的贷款的帮助，但是对欧元区一些国家困难重重的银行（比如西班牙和意大利）重组没有什么直接性的帮助。除了荷兰和芬兰，现在德国也想通过直接资金重组，以冲减“遗留”下来的资产。一名著名的爱尔兰经济学家Karl Whelan用一篇博客的题目总结了这一切：“德国对西班牙和爱尔兰说：去你的”。

 

1 battering   

n.用坏，损坏v.连续猛击( batter的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• The film took a battering from critics in the US. 该影片在美国遭遇到批评家的猛烈抨击。
• He kept battering away at the door. 他接连不断地砸门。 来自《简明英汉词典》

2 diplomats   

n.外交官( diplomat的名词复数 )；有手腕的人，善于交际的人

参考例句：

• These events led to the expulsion of senior diplomats from the country. 这些事件导致一些高级外交官被驱逐出境。
• The court has no jurisdiction over foreign diplomats living in this country. 法院对驻本国的外交官无裁判权。 来自《简明英汉词典》

3 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

4 resurgence   

n.再起，复活，再现

参考例句：

• A resurgence of his grief swept over Nim.悲痛又涌上了尼姆的心头。
• Police say drugs traffickers are behind the resurgence of violence.警方说毒贩是暴力活动重新抬头的罪魁祸首。

5 credible   

adj.可信任的，可靠的

参考例句：

• The news report is hardly credible.这则新闻报道令人难以置信。
• Is there a credible alternative to the nuclear deterrent?是否有可以取代核威慑力量的可靠办法？

6 banking   

n.银行业，银行学，金融业

参考例句：

• John is launching his son on a career in banking.约翰打算让儿子在银行界谋一个新职位。
• He possesses an extensive knowledge of banking.他具有广博的银行业务知识。

7 dispel   

vt.驱走，驱散，消除

参考例句：

• I tried in vain to dispel her misgivings.我试图消除她的疑虑，但没有成功。
• We hope the programme will dispel certain misconceptions about the disease.我们希望这个节目能消除对这种疾病的一些误解。

8 assuaged   

v.减轻( assuage的过去式和过去分词 )；缓和；平息；使安静

参考例句：

• Although my trepidation was not completely assuaged, I was excited. 虽然我的种种担心并没有完全缓和，我还是很激动。 来自互联网
• Rejection (which cannot be assuaged) is another powerful motivator of bullying. （不能缓和的）拒绝是另一个欺负行为的有力动因。 来自互联网

9 unlimited   

adj.无限的，不受控制的，无条件的

参考例句：

• They flew over the unlimited reaches of the Arctic.他们飞过了茫茫无边的北极上空。
• There is no safety in unlimited technological hubris.在技术方面自以为是会很危险。

10 deficit   

n.亏空，亏损；赤字，逆差

参考例句：

• The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事们报告赤字为250万美元。
• We have a great deficit this year.我们今年有很大亏损。

11 ineptness   

n.荒谬，拙劣

参考例句：

• His ineptness as a public official made him the laughingstock of the whole town. 作为一个官员，他的无能让他成了全镇人的笑柄。

12 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

13 structural   

adj.构造的，组织的，建筑（用）的

参考例句：

• The storm caused no structural damage.风暴没有造成建筑结构方面的破坏。
• The North American continent is made up of three great structural entities.北美大陆是由三个构造单元组成的。

14 detailed   

adj.详细的，详尽的，极注意细节的，完全的

参考例句：

• He had made a detailed study of the terrain.他对地形作了缜密的研究。
• A detailed list of our publications is available on request.我们的出版物有一份详细的目录备索。

15 assessment   

n.评价；评估；对财产的估价，被估定的金额

参考例句：

• This is a very perceptive assessment of the situation.这是一个对该情况的极富洞察力的评价。
• What is your assessment of the situation?你对时局的看法如何？

16 offset   

n.分支，补偿；v.抵消，补偿

参考例句：

• Their wage increases would be offset by higher prices.他们增加的工资会被物价上涨所抵消。
• He put up his prices to offset the increased cost of materials.他提高了售价以补偿材料成本的增加。

17 rein   

n.疆绳，统治，支配；vt.以僵绳控制，统治

参考例句：

• The horse answered to the slightest pull on the rein.只要缰绳轻轻一拉,马就作出反应。
• He never drew rein for a moment till he reached the river.他一刻不停地一直跑到河边。

18 autonomous   

adj.自治的；独立的

参考例句：

• They proudly declared themselves part of a new autonomous province.他们自豪地宣布成为新自治省的一部分。
• This is a matter that comes within the jurisdiction of the autonomous region.这件事是属于自治区权限以内的事务。

19 reviled   

v.辱骂，痛斥( revile的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• The tramp reviled the man who drove him off. 流浪汉辱骂那位赶他走开的人。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》
• The old man reviled against corruption. 那老人痛斥了贪污舞弊。 来自《简明英汉词典》

20 opposition   

n.反对，敌对

参考例句：

• The party leader is facing opposition in his own backyard.该党领袖在自己的党內遇到了反对。
• The police tried to break down the prisoner's opposition.警察设法制住了那个囚犯的反抗。

21 zeal   

n.热心，热情，热忱

参考例句：

• Revolutionary zeal caught them up,and they joined the army.革命热情激励他们，于是他们从军了。
• They worked with great zeal to finish the project.他们热情高涨地工作，以期完成这个项目。

22 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

23 creditor   

n.债仅人，债主，贷方

参考例句：

• The boss assigned his car to his creditor.那工头把自己的小汽车让与了债权人。
• I had to run away from my creditor whom I made a usurious loan.我借了高利贷不得不四处躲债。

24 hooded   

adj.戴头巾的；有罩盖的；颈部因肋骨运动而膨胀的

参考例句：

• A hooded figure waited in the doorway. 一个戴兜帽的人在门口等候。
• Black-eyed gipsy girls, hooded in showy handkerchiefs, sallied forth to tell fortunes. 黑眼睛的吉卜赛姑娘，用华丽的手巾包着头，突然地闯了进来替人算命。 来自辞典例句

25 hurling   

n.爱尔兰式曲棍球v.猛投，用力掷( hurl的现在分词 )；大声叫骂

参考例句：

• The boat rocked wildly, hurling him into the water. 这艘船剧烈地晃动，把他甩到水中。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Fancy hurling away a good chance like that, the silly girl! 想想她竟然把这样一个好机会白白丢掉了，真是个傻姑娘！ 来自《简明英汉词典》

26 massaging   

按摩，推拿( massage的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• He watched the prisoner massaging his freed wrists. 他看着那个犯人不断揉搓着刚松开的两只手腕。
• Massaging your leg will ease the cramp. 推拿大腿可解除抽筋。

27 gargantuan   

adj.巨大的，庞大的

参考例句：

• My gargantuan,pristine machine was good for writing papers and playing solitaire,and that was all.我那庞大的、早期的计算机只适合写文章和玩纸牌游戏，就这些。
• Right away,I realized this was a mistake of gargantuan proportions.我立刻意识到这是一个巨大的错误。

28 privately   

adv.以私人的身份，悄悄地，私下地

参考例句：

• Some ministers admit privately that unemployment could continue to rise.一些部长私下承认失业率可能继续升高。
• The man privately admits that his motive is profits.那人私下承认他的动机是为了牟利。

29 technocratic   

adj.由技术专家官员组成的；受技术官僚影响的

参考例句：

• But there is method in Europe's technocratic madness, the official went on. 但欧洲的专家政治论者的愤怒是有原因的，这个位官员接着说道。 来自互联网
• Mr Juppé was floored in part by his contemptuous, technocratic attitude towards union leaders. 朱佩对工会领导蛮横与不屑，是导致他一败涂地的部分原因。 来自互联网

30 maturity   

n.成熟；完成；(支票、债券等)到期

参考例句：

• These plants ought to reach maturity after five years.这些植物五年后就该长成了。
• This is the period at which the body attains maturity.这是身体发育成熟的时期。

31 supervisor   

n.监督人，管理人，检查员，督学，主管，导师

参考例句：

• Between you and me I think that new supervisor is a twit.我们私下说，我认为新来的主管人是一个傻瓜。
• He said I was too flighty to be a good supervisor.他说我太轻浮不能成为一名好的管理员。