经济学人:日本和全球供应链,断裂的链条

 　　The disruption to manufacturers worldwide from Japan’s disasters will force a rethink of how they manage production

　　日本地震灾难所造成的世界范围内制造商的崩溃迫使人们重新思考管理生产的方法

　　LAST year Iceland’s volcanic¹ ash disrupted air transport across Europe and gave the world’s manufacturing supply chain one of its biggest tests since the advent² of the low-inventory, just-in-time era. Now, Japan’s quadruple disaster—earthquake, tsunami³, nuclear alert and power shortages—has put the supply chain under far greater stress. Three weeks after the massive quake, the extent and likely duration of the disruption are still unclear.

　　去年冰岛的火山灰扰乱了整个欧洲的航空运输，为世界制造供应链自低库存和及时成产时代以来提供一个最大的考验。 现在，日本的四个灾害——地震，海啸，核警报和电力短缺已使供应链处在更大的压力下。 在大地震发生三星期后，破坏的范围和可能的持续时间海不清楚。

　　There are some enlightening similarities between the shocks that manufacturers are now suffering and those that buffeted⁴ the banking⁵ system in the 2008 financial crisis. In both cases two of the biggest surprises were the unexpected connections the crisis uncovered, and the extent of the contagion⁶. The problems began in a seemingly well-contained part of the system—subprime mortgages in the case of finance, in manufacturing’s case a natural disaster in an economic backwater—but quickly spread.

　　在制造厂家所遭遇的冲击和2008年金融危机中银行系统中连受打击的人之间是有一些受人启发的相似之处的。 在这两种情况下，最让人惊讶的是未保险的危机和污染范围的意想不到的联系。 这些问题始于系统中一个看似完全包含的部分—— 金融中的次级抵押贷款，在经济停滞中的制造商所经历的自然灾害，但很快蔓延开。

　　Like the sudden evaporation⁷ of liquidity⁸ that the banks experienced, factories are finding that parts that had always turned up reliably have stopped coming. As with financial regulators’ discovery of how poorly they understood the “shadow banking” system and arcane⁹ derivatives¹⁰ contracts, manufacturers are discovering how little they know about their suppliers’ suppliers and those even farther down the chain. When Lehman went bust¹¹, other banks struggled to measure their exposure because Lehman turned out to be not a single institution but a tangle¹² of many entities¹³. Assembly firms are now finding that their supply chain looks much the same.

　　银行资金如液体挥发般突然不见，工厂发现一只稳定到货的零部件竟然停止供应。 至于金融监管机构，他们发现他们对于“影子银行”系统和晦涩难懂的衍生品金融品合同的理解是如此肤浅，制造商们发现他们对供应商的供应商及下边的供应链知之甚少。 当雷曼破产，其他银行努力衡量他们的暴露出的问题，因为雷曼兄弟不是一个单独的机构，而是许多缠绕的实体。组装公司现在发现他们的供应链看起来是一样的。

　　Just as some financial institutions proved “too big to fail”, some Japanese suppliers are now revealed to be too crucial to do without. For example, two firms, Mitsubishi Gas Chemical and Hitachi Chemical, control about 90% of the market for a specialty¹⁴ resin¹⁵ used to bond parts of microchips that go in to smartphones and other devices. Both firms’ plants were damaged. The compact battery in Apple’s iPods relies on a polymer made by Kureha, which holds 70% of the market, and whose factory was damaged.

　　正如一些金融机构被证明“太大而不能倒”，现在人们发现日本的一些供应商太重要以至于不能缺少。例如，两个公司——三菱气体化工和三菱化工，控制了装在智能手机和其他设备中用于粘连微晶片零件的专用树脂的约90%的市场。这两家公司的工厂都遭到了破坏。 苹果的iPod小型电池依赖于日本吴羽（它占有70％的市场份额）的一种聚合物，其工厂也遭到破坏。

　　Manufacturers around the world are now racing¹⁶ to secure supplies of the scarcest components¹⁷ and materials, pushing up their prices. Carmakers in Japan and America have had to scale back production. Toyota fears a scarcity¹⁸ of 500 rubber, plastic and electronic parts. It is not yet clear how much worse things will get as existing stocks run down. Nor can Japanese suppliers be sure yet of how soon they can get back up to speed: hundreds of aftershocks, some strong enough to disrupt production, have rumbled¹⁹ on since the main quake. Given the loss of a very large nuclear plant and shutdowns of others, power shortages may extend for years.

　　世界各地的制造商正在竞相争取得到稀缺元器件和材料，并提升了其价格。 日本和美国的汽车制造商不得不缩减生产。 丰田担心缺少500个橡胶，塑胶及电子零件。 若现在的库存用完之后目前还不清楚事情会变得有多糟。 日本供应商也不能肯定多久能恢复：数以百计的余震，一些强大到足以破坏生产，自从主震发生以来就一直轰轰响着。 由于非常大规模核电厂的损失和其他工厂的关闭，电力短缺可能持续数年。

　　Even before the extent of the disruption becomes clear, it seems certain that Japan’s disaster will have a lasting²⁰ impact on how manufacturers manage their operations, says Hans-Paul Bürkner, boss of the Boston Consulting Group, who was in Tokyo this week. “It is very important now to think the extreme,” he says. “You have to have some buffers²¹.”

　　波士顿咨询集团老板Hans-Paul Bürkner（本周呆在东京）说即使在破坏的范围变得清晰以前，似乎可以肯定，日本的灾难将对制造商管理业务方面产生持久的影响，他说。 “现在考虑这种极端情况是非常重要的，你必须有一定的缓冲期。”

　　Over the past decade or so the just-in-time concept of having supplies delivered at the last minute, so as to keep inventories²² down, has spread down the global manufacturing chain. Now, say economists²³ at HSBC, this chain may be fortified²⁴ with “just-in-case” systems to limit the damage from disruptions.

　　在过去的十几年间左右，这种最后一分钟送达以使存货下降的刚好够用的库存概念在最后一分钟已经在全球制造链上蔓延开。 现在，汇丰银行的经济学家说，使用“以防万一”系统来限制破坏的损害程度，这一链条会被加固。

　　For instance, suppliers who have near-monopolies on crucial parts and materials may be pressed to spread their production facilities geographically²⁵. Their customers may, as a precaution, also switch part of their orders to smaller rivals. Hiwin, a Taiwanese firm with 10% of the market for “linear motion guides”, used in industrial machines, may gain share from customers of Japan’s THK, which dominates the market with a 55% share and which faces power cuts, suggests CLSA, a stockbroker²⁶.

　　例如，对关键零部件和材料有近垄断地位的供应商可能会被迫按照地理位置分布其生产设备。作为预防设施，他们的客户可能将部分订单留给规模较小的其他竞争对手。 拥有10%市场份额的台湾公司上银可能会从日本的THK（股票经纪公司里昂证券称，他们主宰市场55%的份额并面临停电）的顾客那里获得股份。

　　Assembly firms will be under the same financial pressures as before to keep their inventories of supplies down. So a new growth industry may emerge from the crisis: that of holding and maintaining essential stocks on behalf of manufacturers.

　　组装公司将像以前一样面临同样的金融压力以减少他们的库存数量。 因此，从该危机中会出现一个新的发展行业：代表制造商持有并维护基本库存。

　　Industrial firms, having spent years becoming ever leaner in their production techniques and, in the process, making themselves more vulnerable to these sorts of supply shocks, will now have to go partly into reverse, giving up some efficiency gains to become more robust²⁷. One consolation²⁸ is that their problem of “too crucial to do without” suppliers looks a lot easier to solve than the conundrum²⁹ of the “too big to fail” banks.

　　工业企业，花了几年时间来使生产技术日益精简。在这个过程中，却使自己对这种类型的供应冲击更加脆弱，现在不得不部分向相反方向前进，放弃一些效率的提高而变得更加笨拙。 一个令人慰藉的是这些“太关键以至于不能缺少”的供应商他们的问题“太关键离不开”供应商看起来比“太大以至于不能失败”的银行更容易解决问题。

1 volcanic   

adj.火山的；象火山的；由火山引起的

参考例句：

• There have been several volcanic eruptions this year.今年火山爆发了好几次。
• Volcanic activity has created thermal springs and boiling mud pools.火山活动产生了温泉和沸腾的泥浆池。

2 advent   

n.(重要事件等的)到来，来临

参考例句：

• Swallows come by groups at the advent of spring. 春天来临时燕子成群飞来。
• The advent of the Euro will redefine Europe.欧元的出现将重新定义欧洲。

3 tsunami   

n.海啸

参考例句：

• Powerful quake sparks tsunami warning in Japan.大地震触发了日本的海啸预警。
• Coastlines all around the Indian Ocean inundated by a huge tsunami.大海啸把印度洋沿岸地区都淹没了。

4 buffeted   

反复敲打( buffet的过去式和过去分词 )； 连续猛击； 打来打去； 推来搡去

参考例句：

• to be buffeted by the wind 被风吹得左右摇摆
• We were buffeted by the wind and the rain. 我们遭到风雨的袭击。

5 banking   

n.银行业，银行学，金融业

参考例句：

• John is launching his son on a career in banking.约翰打算让儿子在银行界谋一个新职位。
• He possesses an extensive knowledge of banking.他具有广博的银行业务知识。

6 contagion   

n.(通过接触的疾病)传染；蔓延

参考例句：

• A contagion of fear swept through the crowd.一种恐惧感在人群中迅速蔓延开。
• The product contagion effect has numerous implications for marketing managers and retailers.产品传染效应对市场营销管理者和零售商都有很多的启示。

7 evaporation   

n.蒸发，消失

参考例句：

• Be careful not to lose too much liquid by evaporation.小心不要因蒸发失去太多水分。
• Our bodies can sweat,thereby losing heat by evaporation.我们的身体能出汗，由此可以蒸发散热。

8 liquidity   

n.流动性，偿债能力，流动资产

参考例句：

• The bank has progressively increased its liquidity.银行逐渐地增加其流动资产。
• The demand for and the supply of credit is closely linked to changes in liquidity.信用的供求和流动资金的变化有密切关系。

9 arcane   

adj.神秘的，秘密的

参考例句：

• The technique at one time was arcane in the minds of most chemists.这种技术在大多数化学家心目中一度是神秘的。
• Until a few months ago few people outside the arcane world of contemporary music had heard of Gorecki.直至几个月前，在现代音乐神秘殿堂之外很少有人听说了戈莱斯基。

10 derivatives   

n.衍生性金融商品；派生物，引出物( derivative的名词复数 )；导数

参考例句：

• Many English words are derivatives of Latin words. 许多英语词来自拉丁语。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• These compounds are nitrosohydroxylamine derivatives. 这类合成物是亚硝基羟胺衍生物。 来自辞典例句

11 bust   

vt.打破；vi.爆裂；n.半身像；胸部

参考例句：

• I dropped my camera on the pavement and bust it. 我把照相机掉在人行道上摔坏了。
• She has worked up a lump of clay into a bust.她把一块黏土精心制作成一个半身像。

12 tangle   

n.纠缠；缠结；混乱；v.(使)缠绕；变乱

参考例句：

• I shouldn't tangle with Peter.He is bigger than me.我不应该与彼特吵架。他的块头比我大。
• If I were you, I wouldn't tangle with them.我要是你，我就不跟他们争吵。

13 entities   

实体对像； 实体，独立存在体，实际存在物( entity的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Our newspaper and our printing business form separate corporate entities. 我们的报纸和印刷业形成相对独立的企业实体。
• The North American continent is made up of three great structural entities. 北美大陆是由三个构造单元组成的。

14 specialty   

n.(speciality)特性，特质；专业，专长

参考例句：

• Shell carvings are a specialty of the town.贝雕是该城的特产。
• His specialty is English literature.他的专业是英国文学。

15 resin   

n.树脂，松香，树脂制品；vt.涂树脂

参考例句：

• This allyl type resin is a highly transparent, colourless material.这种烯丙基型的树脂是一种高度透明的、无色材料。
• This is referred to as a thixotropic property of the resin.这种特性叫做树脂的触变性。

16 racing   

n.竞赛，赛马；adj.竞赛用的，赛马用的

参考例句：

• I was watching the racing on television last night.昨晚我在电视上看赛马。
• The two racing drivers fenced for a chance to gain the lead.两个赛车手伺机竞相领先。

17 components   

（机器、设备等的）构成要素，零件，成分； 成分( component的名词复数 )； [物理化学]组分； [数学]分量； （混合物的）组成部分

参考例句：

• the components of a machine 机器部件
• Our chemistry teacher often reduces a compound to its components in lab. 在实验室中化学老师常把化合物分解为各种成分。

18 scarcity   

n.缺乏，不足，萧条

参考例句：

• The scarcity of skilled workers is worrying the government.熟练工人的缺乏困扰着政府。
• The scarcity of fruit was caused by the drought.水果供不应求是由于干旱造成的。

19 rumbled   

发出隆隆声，发出辘辘声( rumble的过去式和过去分词 )； 轰鸣着缓慢行进； 发现…的真相； 看穿（阴谋）

参考例句：

• The machine rumbled as it started up. 机器轰鸣着发动起来。
• Things rapidly became calm, though beneath the surface the argument rumbled on. 事情迅速平静下来了，然而，在这种平静的表面背后争论如隆隆雷声，持续不断。

20 lasting   

adj.永久的，永恒的；vbl.持续，维持

参考例句：

• The lasting war debased the value of the dollar.持久的战争使美元贬值。
• We hope for a lasting settlement of all these troubles.我们希望这些纠纷能获得永久的解决。

21 buffers   

起缓冲作用的人（或物）( buffer的名词复数 )； 缓冲器； 减震器； 愚蠢老头

参考例句：

• To allocate and schedule the use of buffers. 分配和计划缓冲器的使用。
• Number of times the stream has paused due to insufficient stream buffers. 由于流缓冲区不足导致流程暂停的次数。

22 inventories   

n.总结( inventory的名词复数 )；细账；存货清单（或财产目录）的编制

参考例句：

• In other cases, such as inventories, inputs and outputs are both continuous. 在另一些情况下，比如存货，其投入和产出都是持续不断的。
• The store must clear its winter inventories by April 1st. 该店必须在4月1日前售清冬季存货。

23 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

24 fortified   

adj. 加强的

参考例句：

• He fortified himself against the cold with a hot drink. 他喝了一杯热饮御寒。
• The enemy drew back into a few fortified points. 敌人收缩到几个据点里。

25 geographically   

adv.地理学上，在地理上，地理方面

参考例句：

• Geographically, the UK is on the periphery of Europe. 从地理位置上讲，英国处于欧洲边缘。 来自辞典例句
• All these events, however geographically remote, urgently affected Western financial centers. 所有这些事件，无论发生在地理上如何遥远的地方，都对西方金融中心产生紧迫的影响。 来自名作英译部分

26 stockbroker   

n.股票（或证券），经纪人（或机构）

参考例句：

• The main business of stockbroker is to help clients buy and sell shares.股票经纪人的主要业务是帮客户买卖股票。
• My stockbroker manages my portfolio for me.我的证券经纪人替我管理投资组合。

27 robust   

adj.强壮的，强健的，粗野的，需要体力的，浓的

参考例句：

• She is too tall and robust.她个子太高，身体太壮。
• China wants to keep growth robust to reduce poverty and avoid job losses,AP commented.美联社评论道，中国希望保持经济强势增长，以减少贫困和失业状况。

28 consolation   

n.安慰，慰问

参考例句：

• The children were a great consolation to me at that time.那时孩子们成了我的莫大安慰。
• This news was of little consolation to us.这个消息对我们来说没有什么安慰。

29 conundrum   

n.谜语；难题

参考例句：

• Let me give you some history about a conundrum.让我给你们一些关于谜题的历史。
• Scientists had focused on two explanations to solve this conundrum.科学家已锁定两种解释来解开这个难题。