2022年经济学人 疫情后疯狂印钞发放的美国(1)

Finance & economics

财经版块

America's consumers

美国消费者

Life after stimmy

大把支票下的生活

Will households, pandemic savings¹ stash² keep the economy rolling?

家庭储蓄和防疫储蓄能保持经济运转吗？

America's fiscal³ largesse⁴ during the pandemic has fuelled not just economic growth but also a lively hip-hop niche⁵.

美国在疫情期间的慷慨财政不仅推动了经济增长，也推动了活跃的嘻哈小众市场。

Over the past two years musicians have released no fewer than 30 different songs referring to the government's stimulus⁶ cheques, known as stimmies.

在过去的两年里，音乐家们已经发布了30多首关于政府发放刺激性支票的歌曲，刺激性支票被称为“stimmies”。

"Yeah, check, I need a stimmy. S-t-i-double m-y, tell 'em gimme'," raps Curtis Roach in one snappy track.

“嘿，切克闹，我需要一个刺激支票。S-t-i-double m-y，给我吧！”柯蒂斯·罗奇在一首轻快的曲子里说唱道。

The video seems to confirm the worst fears about how the money was spent.

这段视频似乎证实了人们对这笔钱是如何花掉的最糟糕的担忧。

Mr Roach fans himself with dollar bills and sprays them about at parties.

罗奇先生用美元纸币做成扇子形状，并在聚会上四处散钱。

But a closer listen reveals a conservative streak⁷ that would do fusty financial planners proud.

但仔细听一听，你会发现他有一种保守的性格，会让老气的理财规划师感到自豪。

"Generational wealth, that's where it's at…save a lil' bit for the rainy days on yo' back, never slack."

“世代的财富，这就是价值所在，存点钱以备不时之需，永不懈怠。”

The question of how Americans spent and, crucially, saved money over the past two years looms⁸ large over the economy today.

在过去的两年里，美国人是如何花钱以及如何存钱的，这一问题在今天的经济中显得尤为突出。

In spring 2020, when millions lost their jobs overnight, a reasonable assumption was that personal finances would suffer.

2020年春天，当数百万人一夜之间失去工作，一个合理的假设是个人财务将受到影响。

Instead, government handouts⁹, from the stimmies to more generous unemployment benefits, propped¹⁰ up incomes.

然后，与预料相反的是从经济刺激计划到更慷慨的失业救济金，政府的救济措施提高了人们的收入。

Moreover, as people stayed home, their spending fell well below normal levels.

此外，由于人们呆在家里，他们的支出远远低于正常水平。

The result was a piggy-bank boom.

结果导致了一场存钱热潮。

Americans have accumulated some $2.5trn in extra savings compared with the pre-covid trend.

与疫情前的趋势相比，美国人已经积累了大约2.5万亿美元的额外储蓄。

Higher-than-expected incomes account for two-thirds of the stockpile, while lower-than-expected expenditures¹¹ explain the other third, according to calculations by The Economist¹².

根据《经济学人》的计算，高于预期的收入占储蓄的三分之二，而低于预期的支出解释了另外三分之一。

This stash of cash could, in theory, provide a pillar for the economy over the coming year as policymakers withdraw support.

从理论上讲，随着政策制定者撤回支持，这些现金储备可能会为未来一年的经济提供支柱。

With annual consumer-price inflation running at a four-decade high—it hit 7% in December—the Federal Reserve has signalled that it intends to raise interest rates soon.

随着年度消费价格通胀达到40年来的最高水平——12月份达到了7%——美联储已经发出信号，它打算很快提高利率。

Some economists¹³ expect as many as four rate increases this year.

一些经济学家预计今年可能会有四次加息。

Fiscal policies are also becoming more parsimonious¹⁴.

财政政策也变得更加节俭。

Many of the benefit top-ups expired in the autumn.

许多补贴已于今年秋季到期。

The Democratic Party's inability thus far to pass President Joe Biden's "Build Back Better" programme will lead to further retrenchment¹⁵.

民主党迄今未能通过乔·拜登总统的“重建美好未来”计划，这将导致进一步的紧缩。

Will the extra savings blunt the impact of all this policy tightening¹⁶?

额外的储蓄会削弱所有这些政策紧缩政策带来的影响吗？

There are reasons to be sceptical.

我们有理由对此表示怀疑。

Were the $2.5trn shared equally across the country, it would amount to about $7,500 for every American—more than the combined total of the three rounds of stimulus cheques.

如果2.5万亿美元在全国范围内平均分配，相当于每个美国人大约7500美元——这比三轮“刺激支票”的总和还要多。

In practice the distribution is far from equal.

实际上，分配远远不平等。

In the decade before covid-19 the wealthiest 1% of Americans had, in aggregate¹⁷, about twice as much in cash and chequable bank deposits as the bottom 50%.

在疫情之前的十年里，最富有的1%的美国人总共拥有的现金和支票银行存款大约是底层50%人的两倍。

The pandemic has skewed this further: the top 1% now has four times as much as the bottom half.

这场疫情进一步扭曲了这一点：最富有的1%的人的收入是最贫穷50%人的四倍。

Over the government directed its assistance towards poorer Americans, the ultra-rich reaped far greater rewards, thanks in large part to soaring asset prices.

政府的援助对象是较贫穷的美国人，但超级富豪获得的回报要大得多，这在很大程度上要归功于飙升的资产价格。

That matters in trying to assess the potential impact of excess savings.

在试图评估过度储蓄的潜在影响时，这一点很重要。

The wealthy typically spend a low share of their incomes.

富人的消费只占他们收入很少的一部分。

The extra cash sitting in their hands is more likely to go towards investment accounts than grocery purchases.

他们手中的额外现金更有可能用于投资，而不是购买食品杂货。

1 savings   

n.存款，储蓄

参考例句：

• I can't afford the vacation,for it would eat up my savings.我度不起假，那样会把我的积蓄用光的。
• By this time he had used up all his savings.到这时，他的存款已全部用完。

2 stash   

v.藏或贮存于一秘密处所；n.隐藏处

参考例句：

• Stash away both what you lost and gained,for life continues on.将得失深藏心底吧，为了那未来的生活。
• That's supposed to be in our private stash.这是我的私人珍藏。

3 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

4 largesse   

n.慷慨援助，施舍

参考例句：

• She is not noted for her largesse.没人听说过她出手大方。
• Our people are in no need of richer nations' largesse.我国人民不需要富国的施舍。

5 niche   

n.壁龛；合适的职务(环境、位置等)

参考例句：

• Madeleine placed it carefully in the rocky niche. 玛德琳小心翼翼地把它放在岩石壁龛里。
• The really talented among women would always make their own niche.妇女中真正有才能的人总是各得其所。

6 stimulus   

n.刺激，刺激物，促进因素，引起兴奋的事物

参考例句：

• Regard each failure as a stimulus to further efforts.把每次失利看成对进一步努力的激励。
• Light is a stimulus to growth in plants.光是促进植物生长的一个因素。

7 streak   

n.条理，斑纹，倾向，少许，痕迹；v.加条纹，变成条纹，奔驰，快速移动

参考例句：

• The Indians used to streak their faces with paint.印第安人过去常用颜料在脸上涂条纹。
• Why did you streak the tree?你为什么在树上刻条纹？

8 looms   

n.织布机( loom的名词复数 )v.隐约出现，阴森地逼近( loom的第三人称单数 )；隐约出现，阴森地逼近

参考例句：

• All were busily engaged,men at their ploughs,women at their looms. 大家都很忙，男的耕田，女的织布。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The factory has twenty-five looms. 那家工厂有25台织布机。 来自《简明英汉词典》

9 handouts   

救济品( handout的名词复数 )； 施舍物； 印刷品； 讲义

参考例句：

• Soldiers oversee the food handouts. 士兵们看管着救济食品。
• Even after losing his job, he was too proud to accept handouts. 甚至在失去工作后，他仍然很骄傲，不愿接受施舍。

10 propped   

支撑，支持，维持( prop的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• He sat propped up in the bed by pillows. 他靠着枕头坐在床上。
• This fence should be propped up. 这栅栏该用东西支一支。

11 expenditures   

n.花费( expenditure的名词复数 )；使用；（尤指金钱的）支出额；（精力、时间、材料等的）耗费

参考例句：

• We have overspent.We'll have to let up our expenditures next month. 我们已经超支了，下个月一定得节约开支。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The pension includes an allowance of fifty pounds for traffic expenditures. 年金中包括50镑交通费补贴。 来自《简明英汉词典》

12 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

13 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

14 parsimonious   

adj.吝啬的，质量低劣的

参考例句：

• Many scrollbars are quite parsimonious in doling out information to users.很多滚动条都很吝啬，给用户传递的信息太少。
• His parsimonious nature did not permit him to enjoy any luxuries.他那吝啬的本性不容许他享受任何奢侈品。

15 retrenchment   

n.节省，删除

参考例句：

• Retrenchment will be necessary. 有必要进行紧缩。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• Defense planners predict an extended period of retrenchment. 国防规划人员预计开支紧缩期会延长。 来自辞典例句

16 tightening   

上紧，固定，紧密

参考例句：

• Make sure the washer is firmly seated before tightening the pipe. 旋紧水管之前，检查一下洗衣机是否已牢牢地固定在底座上了。
• It needs tightening up a little. 它还需要再收紧些。

17 aggregate   

adj.总计的，集合的；n.总数；v.合计；集合

参考例句：

• The football team had a low goal aggregate last season.这支足球队上个赛季的进球总数很少。
• The money collected will aggregate a thousand dollars.进帐总额将达一千美元。