2022年经济学人 俄乌危机引发的粮食恐慌(2)

Future crops are an even bigger worry. In Ukraine the war may result in lower yields and area planted.

农作物的未来更令人担忧。在乌克兰，战争可能会导致产量和种植面积的下降。

Winter crops such as wheat and barley¹, which are sown in October, could be smaller because of a lack of fertiliser and pesticides².

由于缺乏化肥和杀虫剂，小麦和大麦等10月份播种的冬季作物产量可能会减少。

Spring crops such as corn and sunflowers, the planting of which would normally start imminently³, may not get sown at all.

像玉米和向日葵这样的春季作物通常很快就会开始种植，但现在也许根本就不会播种了。

Leonid Tsentilo, whose farm in central Ukraine grows 7,000 tonnes of wheat a year, says local prices for diesel⁴ and plant-protection products have risen by 50% in two weeks. Some of his workers have been shipped off to war.

列昂尼德·岑提洛每年在乌克兰中部的农场种植7000吨小麦，他说当地的柴油和植物保护剂的价格在两周内上涨了50%。他的一些工人被派去打仗了。

In Russia the risk is not curtailed⁵ production but blockaded exports. Although food sales are not yet subject to sanctions, Western banks are reluctant to lend to traders.

而俄罗斯的风险不在于减产，而在于出口受阻。尽管食品销售尚未受到制裁，但西方银行不愿向贸易商放贷。

Fear of being fined by governments in the West or shamed by its press is keeping merchants at bay. While Ukraine is “unreachable”, Russia is “untouchable”, says Michael Magdovitz of Rabobank.

由于担心被西方政府罚款或被媒体羞辱，商人们都不敢妄动。荷兰合作银行的迈克尔·马格多维茨表示，乌克兰是“不可到达的”，而俄罗斯则是“摸都摸不得的”。

Most alarming will be the conflict's impact on agriculture worldwide. The region is a big supplier of critical fertiliser components⁶, including natural gas and potash.

最令人担忧的将是冲突对全球农业的影响。冲突发生的地区是包括天然气和钾肥在内的关键化肥成分的重要供应地。

Fertiliser prices had already doubled or tripled, depending on the type, even before the war, owing to rising energy and transport costs and sanctions imposed in 2021 on Belarus, which produces 18% of the world's potash, as it cracked down on dissidents.

由于能源和运输成本的上涨，以及白俄罗斯因为意见不同，在2021年遭遇制裁后，化肥价格甚至在战前就已经翻了一倍或两倍，具体价格取决于化肥的种类。白俄罗斯的钾肥产量占全球的18%。

As Russia, which accounts for 20% of global output, finds it harder to export its own potash, prices are sure to rise further.

占全球总产量20%的俄罗斯发现自己的钾肥出口越来越难，钾肥价格肯定会进一步上涨。

Since four-fifths of the world's potash is traded internationally, the impact of price spikes⁸ will be felt in every agricultural region in the world, warns Humphrey Knight⁹ of cru, a consultancy.

咨询公司CRU的汉弗莱·奈特警告称，由于全球五分之四的钾肥都是国际交易，全球所有农业地区都将感受到钾肥价格飙升的影响。

As a result of all this, a much greater share of incomes will soon be spent on food.

所有这一切导致的结果是，人们会在食品上花费越来越多的收入。

This will be felt most acutely in the Middle East, Africa and parts of Asia, where some 800m people depend heavily on Black Sea wheat.

中东、非洲和亚洲部分地区受到的影响最为严重，在这些地区，约有8亿人严重依赖黑海小麦。

That includes Turkey, which supplies much of the southern Mediterranean¹⁰ with flour. Egypt usually buys 70% of its wheat from Russia and Ukraine.

其中包括土耳其，它向地中海南部大部分地区供应面粉。埃及通常从俄罗斯和乌克兰购买70%的小麦。

The latter alone accounts for half of Lebanon's wheat imports. Many others can hardly do without Ukraine's corn, soyabeans and vegetable oil.

仅后者就占黎巴嫩小麦进口的一半。其他许多国家离不开乌克兰的玉米、大豆和植物油。

Meanwhile higher fertiliser and energy costs will crimp farmers' margins¹¹ everywhere.

与此同时，更高的化肥和能源成本将挤压各地农民的利润。

Brazil, a huge producer of meat and agricultural products, imports 46% of its potash from either Russia or Belarus, says Cristiano Veloso of Verde AgriTech, a Brazilian startup.

巴西一家新兴公司Verde AgriTech的克里斯蒂亚诺·维罗索说，作为肉类和农产品的巨大生产国，巴西46%的碳酸钾是从俄罗斯或白俄罗斯进口的。

Eventually some of the costs will be passed on to the consumer.

最终，部分成本将转嫁到消费者身上。

Protectionism may pour more fuel on the fire. National restrictions¹² on fertiliser exports increased last year and could accelerate.

保护主义可能会火上浇油。去年，全国对化肥出口的限制有所增加，而且可能会加速。

Limits on food exports, or panic-buying by importers, could trigger a price spike⁷ of the kind that sparked riots in dozens of countries in 2007-08.

对食品出口的限制，或进口商的恐慌性购买，可能会引发价格飙升，就像2007-08年在几十个国家引发骚乱那样。

On March 8th and 9th, respectively, Russia and Ukraine banned wheat exports. Argentina, Hungary, Indonesia and Turkey have announced food-export restrictions in recent days.

3月8日和9日，俄罗斯和乌克兰分别禁止小麦出口。阿根廷、匈牙利、印度尼西亚和土耳其最近几天都宣布了食品出口限制。

There is no easy fix. Some of the 160m tonnes of wheat used as animal feed every year could be diverted for human consumption, but substitution may export inflation to other staples¹³.

对于这些问题，没有简单的解决办法。每年在动物饲料上消耗的1.6亿吨小麦中，有一部分可能会转移到人类消费上，但替代品可能会将通胀转移到其它主食上。

Increasing production in Europe and America and drawing on India's vast strategic stockpile may yield 10-15m tonnes—a substantial quantity, but less than a third of Ukraine's and Russia's combined annual exports.

在欧洲和美洲增加产量，并利用印度庞大的战略储备，可能能产出1000 - 1500万吨——这个量相当大，但还不及乌克兰和俄罗斯年度出口量的三分之一。

Some could come from farther afield but there are bottlenecks¹⁴: efforts to export more of Australia's bumper¹⁵ winter-wheat crop have clogged¹⁶ the supply chains between its farms and ports.

还有一些粮食可能来自更远的地方，但也存在瓶颈：出口更多澳大利亚丰产的冬小麦的努力已经堵塞了农场和港口之间的供应链。

With corn, governments may resort to appropriating some of the 148m tonnes used as bioethanol feed to help plug this year's likely shortfall of 35m tonnes.

至于玉米，政府可能会动用1.48亿吨玉米中的一部分作为生物乙醇饲料，以填补今年可能出现的3500万吨玉米短缺。

Fertiliser shortages are even harder to cover: new potash mines take 5-10 years to build.

化肥短缺则更难解决：新的钾肥矿需要5-10年才能建成。

The war in Ukraine is already a tragedy. As it ravages¹⁷ the world's breadbasket, a calamity¹⁸ looms¹⁹.

乌克兰战争本就是一场悲剧。当它波及到世界粮仓的时候，一场灾难又在逼近。

1 barley   

n.大麦，大麦粒

参考例句：

• They looked out across the fields of waving barley.他们朝田里望去,只见大麦随风摇摆。
• He cropped several acres with barley.他种了几英亩大麦。

2 pesticides   

n.杀虫剂( pesticide的名词复数 )；除害药物

参考例句：

• vegetables grown without the use of pesticides 未用杀虫剂种植的蔬菜
• There is a lot of concern over the amount of herbicides and pesticides used in farming. 人们对农业上灭草剂和杀虫剂的用量非常担忧。 来自《简明英汉词典》

3 imminently   

迫切地，紧急地

参考例句：

• The problem of developing bend curve parts needs to be solved imminently. 弯边零件的展开是急需解决的问题。
• Obviously, the knowledge renews imminently, lifelong studies the duty to be arduous. 可见，知识更新迫在眉睫，终身学习任务繁重。

4 diesel   

n.柴油发动机，内燃机

参考例句：

• We experimented with diesel engines to drive the pumps.我们试着用柴油机来带动水泵。
• My tractor operates on diesel oil.我的那台拖拉机用柴油开动。

5 curtailed   

v.截断，缩短( curtail的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• Spending on books has been severely curtailed. 购书开支已被大大削减。
• Their public health programme had to be severely curtailed. 他们的公共卫生计划不得不大大收缩。 来自《简明英汉词典》

6 components   

（机器、设备等的）构成要素，零件，成分； 成分( component的名词复数 )； [物理化学]组分； [数学]分量； （混合物的）组成部分

参考例句：

• the components of a machine 机器部件
• Our chemistry teacher often reduces a compound to its components in lab. 在实验室中化学老师常把化合物分解为各种成分。

7 spike   

n.长钉，钉鞋；v.以大钉钉牢，使...失效

参考例句：

• The spike pierced the receipts and held them in order.那个钉子穿过那些收据并使之按顺序排列。
• They'll do anything to spike the guns of the opposition.他们会使出各种手段来挫败对手。

8 spikes   

n.穗( spike的名词复数 )；跑鞋；（防滑）鞋钉；尖状物v.加烈酒于( spike的第三人称单数 )；偷偷地给某人的饮料加入（更多）酒精（ 或药物）；把尖状物钉入；打乱某人的计划

参考例句：

• a row of iron spikes on a wall 墙头的一排尖铁
• There is a row of spikes on top of the prison wall to prevent the prisoners escaping. 监狱墙头装有一排尖钉，以防犯人逃跑。 来自《简明英汉词典》

9 knight   

n.骑士，武士；爵士

参考例句：

• He was made an honourary knight.他被授予荣誉爵士称号。
• A knight rode on his richly caparisoned steed.一个骑士骑在装饰华丽的马上。

10 Mediterranean   

adj.地中海的；地中海沿岸的

参考例句：

• The houses are Mediterranean in character.这些房子都属地中海风格。
• Gibraltar is the key to the Mediterranean.直布罗陀是地中海的要冲。

11 margins   

边( margin的名词复数 )； 利润； 页边空白； 差数

参考例句：

• They have always had to make do with relatively small profit margins. 他们不得不经常设法应付较少的利润额。
• To create more space between the navigation items, add left and right margins to the links. 在每个项目间留更多的空隙，加左或者右的margins来定义链接。

12 restrictions   

约束( restriction的名词复数 )； 管制； 制约因素； 带限制性的条件（或规则）

参考例句：

• I found the restrictions irksome. 我对那些限制感到很烦。
• a snaggle of restrictions 杂乱无章的种种限制

13 staples   

n.（某国的）主要产品( staple的名词复数 )；钉书钉；U 形钉；主要部份v.用钉书钉钉住( staple的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• The anvil onto which the staples are pressed was not assemble correctly. 订书机上的铁砧安装错位。 来自辞典例句
• I'm trying to make an analysis of the staples of his talk. 我在试行分析他的谈话的要旨。 来自辞典例句

14 bottlenecks   

n.瓶颈( bottleneck的名词复数 )；瓶颈路段（常引起交通堵塞）；（尤指工商业发展的）瓶颈；阻碍

参考例句：

• Roadworks are causing bottlenecks in the city centre. 道路施工导致市中心交通阻塞。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• At five o'clock in the afternoon the city streets are a series of bottlenecks. 下午五点市中心的街道就成了拥挤不堪的窄路。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》

15 bumper   

n.(汽车上的)保险杠；adj.特大的，丰盛的

参考例句：

• The painting represents the scene of a bumper harvest.这幅画描绘了丰收的景象。
• This year we have a bumper harvest in grain.今年我们谷物丰收。

16 clogged   

（使）阻碍( clog的过去式和过去分词 )； 淤滞

参考例句：

• The narrow streets were clogged with traffic. 狭窄的街道上交通堵塞。
• The intake of gasoline was stopped by a clogged fuel line. 汽油的注入由于管道阻塞而停止了。

17 ravages   

劫掠后的残迹，破坏的结果，毁坏后的残迹

参考例句：

• the ravages of war 战争造成的灾难
• It is hard for anyone to escape from the ravages of time. 任何人都很难逃避时间的摧残。

18 calamity   

n.灾害，祸患，不幸事件

参考例句：

• Even a greater natural calamity cannot daunt us. 再大的自然灾害也压不垮我们。
• The attack on Pearl Harbor was a crushing calamity.偷袭珍珠港(对美军来说)是一场毁灭性的灾难。

19 looms   

n.织布机( loom的名词复数 )v.隐约出现，阴森地逼近( loom的第三人称单数 )；隐约出现，阴森地逼近

参考例句：

• All were busily engaged,men at their ploughs,women at their looms. 大家都很忙，男的耕田，女的织布。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The factory has twenty-five looms. 那家工厂有25台织布机。 来自《简明英汉词典》