2022年经济学人 承受重压的俄罗斯经济

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Russia's economy: bearing up

俄罗斯经济：承受重压

Why Russia is on track for a record trade surplus?

为什么俄罗斯即将实现创纪录的贸易顺差?

Within days of Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s financial system seemed on the verge¹ of collapse².

在弗拉基米尔·普京入侵乌克兰的几天之内，俄罗斯的金融体系似乎就处于崩溃的边缘。

The West imposed a range of financial sanctions, notably³ on the Russian central bank’s foreign-exchange reserves, that sent the rouble plunging⁴ and led citizens to withdraw cash frantically⁵.

西方国家对俄罗斯实施了一系列金融制裁，特别是对俄罗斯央行的外汇储备实施制裁，导致卢布暴跌，民众疯狂地提取现金。

Then the central bank raised interest rates, imposed capital controls and injected liquidity⁶ into the banking⁷ system, and some of these misfortunes reversed.

随后，俄罗斯央行提高了利率，实施了资本管制，并增加了银行体系的流动性，让这种崩溃趋势得到了部分逆转。

Although a chunk⁸ of Russia’s currency reserves remains⁹ frozen, the country still generates about $1bn a day from its energy exports.

尽管俄罗斯的一大部分外汇储备仍处于冻结状态，但该国每天仍可通过能源出口创造约10亿美元的收入。

Russia has stopped publishing detailed¹⁰ monthly trade statistics. But figures from its trading partners can be used to work out what is going on.

俄罗斯已停止公布详细的月度贸易统计数据。但是，可以根据其贸易伙伴的数据来推断俄罗斯目前的情况。

They suggest that, as imports slide and exports hold up, Russia is running a record trade surplus.

人们认为，随着进口下滑而出口保持稳定，俄罗斯正在实现创纪录的贸易顺差。

On May 9th China reported that its goods exports to Russia fell by over a quarter in April, compared with a year earlier, while its imports from Russia rose by more than 56%.

5月9日，中国报告称，与去年同期相比，4月份中国对俄罗斯的商品出口下降了四分之一以上，而从俄罗斯的进口上升了56%以上。

Germany reported a 62% monthly drop in exports to Russia in March, and its imports fell by 3%.

德国3月份对俄罗斯的出口下降了62%，进口下降了3%。

Adding up such flows across eight of Russia’s biggest trading partners, we estimate that Russian imports have fallen by about 44% since the invasion of Ukraine, while its exports have risen by roughly 8%.

根据俄罗斯与其最大的8个贸易伙伴的交易数据，我们估计，自入侵乌克兰以来，俄罗斯的进口下降了约44%，而出口却上升了约8%。

Imports have collapsed¹¹ partly because sanctions on the Russian central bank and the expulsion of some lenders from the swift interbank messaging network have made it harder for consumers and firms to buy Western goods.

俄罗斯进口大幅下降的部分原因是其央行遭遇的制裁，以及俄方一些银行被驱逐出快速的银行间信息网络，使得消费者和企业更难购买西方商品。

Elina Ribakova of the Institute of International Finance (or iif), a bankers’ group, says that regulatory uncertainty¹² was also a big factor at first, as Western firms were unsure which Russian banks came under sanctions.

银行家组织国际金融协会(iif)的依林娜·瑞巴科娃说，起初，监管的不确定性也是一个很大的因素，因为西方公司不确定哪些俄罗斯银行会受到制裁。

Logistical disruptions, including decisions by Western firms to suspend deliveries to Russia, mattered, too.

物流中断也很重要，包括西方公司决定暂停对俄罗斯的运输。

The early depreciation¹³ of the rouble also dampened Russian demand for imports, says Claus Vistesen of Pantheon Macroeconomics, a consultancy.

万神殿宏观经济咨询公司的克劳斯·维斯特森表示，卢布的早期贬值也抑制了俄罗斯的进口需求。

Russia’s exports, meanwhile, have held up surprisingly well, including those directed to the West. Sanctions permit the sale of oil and gas to most of the world to continue uninterrupted.

与此同时，俄罗斯的出口出乎意料地保持良好，包括对西方的出口。西方的制裁允许俄罗斯的石油和天然气继续销往世界大部分地区。

And a spike¹⁴ in energy prices has boosted revenues further.

能源价格的飙升进一步推动了俄方收入的增长。

As a result, analysts¹⁵ expect Russia’s trade surplus to hit record highs in the coming months.

因此，分析人士预计，俄罗斯的贸易顺差将在未来几个月创下历史新高。

The iif reckons that in 2022 the current-account surplus, which includes trade and some financial flows, could come in at $250bn (15% of last year’s gdp), more than double the $120bn recorded in 2021.

国际金融研究所估计，到2022年，包括贸易和一些资金流动在内的经常账户盈余可能达到2500亿美元(占去年gdp的15%)，是2021年1200亿美元的两倍多。

That sanctions have boosted Russia’s trade surplus, and thus helped finance the war, is disappointing, says Mr Vistesen.

维斯特森说，制裁增加了俄罗斯的贸易顺差，从而为战争提供了资金，这一点很令人失望。

Ms Ribakova reckons that the efficacy of financial sanctions may have reached its limits.

瑞巴科娃认为金融制裁的效果可能已经达到极限。

A decision to tighten¹⁶ trade sanctions must come next.

接下来必须做出加强贸易制裁的决定。

But such measures could take time to take effect.

但这些措施可能需要一段时间才能生效。

Even if the EU enacts¹⁷ its proposal to ban Russian oil, the embargo¹⁸ would be phased in so slowly that the bloc’s oil imports from Russia would fall by just 19% this year, says Liam Peach of Capital Economics, a consultancy.

咨询公司凯投宏观的利亚姆·皮奇表示，即使欧盟实施其禁止进口俄罗斯石油的提案，禁运也会逐步缓慢地实施，所以今年欧盟从俄罗斯进口的石油仅会下降19%。

The full impact of these sanctions would be felt only at the start of 2023—by which point Mr Putin will have amassed¹⁹ billions to fund his war.

这些制裁的全面影响要到2023年初才会显现，到那时，普京将已积累数十亿美元，为战争提供资金。

1 verge   

n.边，边缘；v.接近，濒临

参考例句：

• The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
• She was on the verge of bursting into tears.她快要哭出来了。

2 collapse   

vi.累倒；昏倒；倒塌；塌陷

参考例句：

• The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
• The engineer made a complete diagnosis of the bridge's collapse.工程师对桥的倒塌做了一次彻底的调查分析。

3 notably   

adv.值得注意地，显著地，尤其地，特别地

参考例句：

• Many students were absent,notably the monitor.许多学生缺席，特别是连班长也没来。
• A notably short,silver-haired man,he plays basketball with his staff several times a week.他个子明显较为矮小，一头银发，每周都会和他的员工一起打几次篮球。

4 plunging   

adj.跳进的，突进的v.颠簸( plunge的现在分词 )；暴跌；骤降；突降

参考例句：

• War broke out again, plunging the people into misery and suffering. 战祸复发，生灵涂炭。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• He is plunging into an abyss of despair. 他陷入了绝望的深渊。 来自《简明英汉词典》

5 frantically   

ad.发狂地, 发疯地

参考例句：

• He dashed frantically across the road. 他疯狂地跑过马路。
• She bid frantically for the old chair. 她发狂地喊出高价要买那把古老的椅子。

6 liquidity   

n.流动性，偿债能力，流动资产

参考例句：

• The bank has progressively increased its liquidity.银行逐渐地增加其流动资产。
• The demand for and the supply of credit is closely linked to changes in liquidity.信用的供求和流动资金的变化有密切关系。

7 banking   

n.银行业，银行学，金融业

参考例句：

• John is launching his son on a career in banking.约翰打算让儿子在银行界谋一个新职位。
• He possesses an extensive knowledge of banking.他具有广博的银行业务知识。

8 chunk   

n.厚片，大块，相当大的部分（数量）

参考例句：

• They had to be careful of floating chunks of ice.他们必须当心大块浮冰。
• The company owns a chunk of farmland near Gatwick Airport.该公司拥有盖特威克机场周边的大片农田。

9 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

10 detailed   

adj.详细的，详尽的，极注意细节的，完全的

参考例句：

• He had made a detailed study of the terrain.他对地形作了缜密的研究。
• A detailed list of our publications is available on request.我们的出版物有一份详细的目录备索。

11 collapsed   

adj.倒塌的

参考例句：

• Jack collapsed in agony on the floor. 杰克十分痛苦地瘫倒在地板上。
• The roof collapsed under the weight of snow. 房顶在雪的重压下突然坍塌下来。

12 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

13 depreciation   

n.价值低落，贬值，蔑视，贬低

参考例句：

• She can't bear the depreciation of the enemy.她受不了敌人的蹂躏。
• They wrote off 500 for depreciation of machinery.他们注销了500镑作为机器折旧费。

14 spike   

n.长钉，钉鞋；v.以大钉钉牢，使...失效

参考例句：

• The spike pierced the receipts and held them in order.那个钉子穿过那些收据并使之按顺序排列。
• They'll do anything to spike the guns of the opposition.他们会使出各种手段来挫败对手。

15 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

16 tighten   

v.(使)变紧；(使)绷紧

参考例句：

• Turn the screw to the right to tighten it.向右转动螺钉把它拧紧。
• Some countries tighten monetary policy to avoid inflation.一些国家实行紧缩银根的货币政策，以避免通货膨胀。

17 enacts   

制定（法律），通过（法案）( enact的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• The legislative branch enacts laws; the executive branch enforces them, and the judicial branch interprets them. 立法部门制订法律，行政部门执行法律，司法部门解释法律。
• Hold phasic characteristic correctly, ability enacts the policy with an actual suit, measure. 正确地把握形势特点，才能制定出切合实际的政策、措施。

18 embargo   

n.禁运（令）；vt.对...实行禁运，禁止（通商）

参考例句：

• This country put an oil embargo on an enemy country.该国对敌国实行石油禁运。
• During the war,they laid an embargo on commerce with enemy countries.在战争期间，他们禁止与敌国通商。

19 amassed   

v.积累，积聚( amass的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• He amassed a fortune from silver mining. 他靠开采银矿积累了一笔财富。
• They have amassed a fortune in just a few years. 他们在几年的时间里就聚集了一笔财富。 来自《简明英汉词典》