美国国家公共电台 NPR 5 Laws Of Political Gravity In Midterms. Do They Still Apply In The Age Of Trump?

 

RACHEL MARTIN, HOST:

We're in Dallas, Texas, today to mark the first primary in the country ahead of the fall midterm elections. Democrats¹ are feeling confident. And if you want to know how seriously Republicans are taking that threat, Governor Greg Abbott said it pretty plainly recently. In an email to supporters a few days ago, he said, the early voting numbers for Democrats should, quote, "shock every conservative to their core." And it's true. Democrats are fired up.

UNIDENTIFIED PERSON: Grab some food, and let's go knock on some doors.

(CHEERING)

MARTIN: That was a campaign organizer at the headquarters for Laura Moser. She is running in the Democratic primary for the Texas 7th. The district re-elected Republican John Culberson in 2016, but it also went for Clinton over Trump², so Democrats hope they can flip³ it. Roxanne Cox (ph) is a campaign volunteer, and she says President Trump's election was a lesson to all the supporters gathered there.

ROXANNE COX: I didn't see it coming that - you know, that Trump was going to get supported. And so I feel like we were a little complacent⁴ in what we thought was going to happen. And I think now we've become incredibly active.

MARTIN: Across town, some Republicans were thinking the same thing. Josh Redelman (ph) was making calls for Kevin Roberts, who's running for Congress in the 2nd District.

JOSH REDELMAN: Don't get complacent. Don't think this is a lock. Yes, this is a strong Republican state, but we're not crimson⁵ red anymore. So it's just one of those things. Like, be vigilant⁶.

MARTIN: So if there's any chance for the Republicans to generate that kind of enthusiasm, it might be on the back of President Trump. NPR's national political correspondent Mara Liasson reports.

MARA LIASSON, BYLINE⁷: Historically, the party with the White House loses, on average, dozens of House seats in a midterm election. Donald Trump knows this.

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PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: You win the presidency⁸, and you take it easy. And then they come and surprise you in the midterms. They call them the midterms.

LIASSON: One of them who studies the midterms is Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report. She starts each election cycle with a list of things she thinks could determine the outcome.

AMY WALTER: The president's overall approval rating, whether he's above or below 50 percent, and then the intensity⁹ factor - how energized¹⁰ is one party over the other? - and then the just overall mood of the country - are we in a recession? Are we in war?

LIASSON: This year, some of those factors lean to the Democrats. Others advantage the GOP. But some of them aren't working the way they have in the past. For instance, the president's approval rating has usually been tied to voters' views about the economy. Right now the economy's doing pretty well, and more people say they like the GOP tax cuts. So why isn't Donald Trump more popular? Amy Walter has a theory.

WALTER: Think about suburban¹¹ voters for a second who have been very sour on this president. These are the kinds of people who do have 401(k) accounts, who should expect to see, if they are in a certain middle-class income, a little bit of money back from the tax cuts. You're not seeing that translate to the president. Yeah, we feel good about the economy, but we don't really feel good about you.

LIASSON: The other big factor is turnout - who will actually come out to vote? That's hard to predict. In 2016, Donald Trump got more white, working-class voters to the polls than analysts¹² thought he would. Will that happen again this year? All we know, says demographer¹³ William Frey, is who has turned out in past midterm elections.

WILLIAM FREY: The people who turn out the most tend to be older people, tend to be whiter people, tend to be people who are married and tend to be people who are well-educated. Most of them tend to favor the Republicans.

LIASSON: But there's one problem for Republicans in that otherwise favorable profile - people who are well-educated. Remember in the campaign when Trump said, I love the poorly educated? Well, they loved him back. College graduates generally do not. This year, Trump needs more of his white, non-college-educated supporters to turn out, just like they did when he defied the odds¹⁴ in 2016. Amy Walter thinks that will be hard.

WALTER: Coalitions¹⁶ that are built in presidential elections don't necessarily translate into midterm elections. Just ask Democrats who were counting on the Obama coalition¹⁵ of 2008 to come out in 2010. They didn't.

LIASSON: But Trump is trying in every way he can to keep his base voters energized.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

TRUMP: Don't be complacent, OK? Don't be complacent because if they get in, they will repeal¹⁷ your tax cuts. They will put judges in that you wouldn't believe. They'll take away your Second Amendment¹⁸, which we will never allow to happen. They'll take away your Second Amendment.

(CHEERING)

LIASSON: Speaking of the Second Amendment, the new debate about gun control in the wake of the Parkland, Fla., school shooting is a wild card that could help Democrats this year. Another wild card is the president's threatened trade war. He says trade wars are good and easy to win. But Republicans worry Trump's tariffs¹⁹ could undermine the stock market and economic growth, two factors they're counting on to help them. And here's another thing to consider. More than two-thirds of Republicans in the House of Representatives have never run in a midterm election where their party had the White House. They've got lots of advantages, more money than the Democrats, favorably drawn²⁰ congressional districts, but they no longer have the luxury of being the opposition²¹ party. Amy Walter...

WALTER: And now they're really the incumbents²³ because they control everything - the Senate, the House and the White House, of course. So while their congressional districts may have been drawn to protect that Republican incumbent²², they've never been tested by the kinds of headwinds that they're going to be tested by in 2018.

LIASSON: So which is more powerful, a good economy, more campaign money and the mighty²⁴ fortress²⁵ of redistricting, or increased enthusiasm, higher turnout and a huge crop of new Democratic candidates? We'll find out in about eight months. Mara Liasson, NPR News, Washington.

(SOUNDBITE OF SOLAR BEARS' "WILD FLOWERS")

1 democrats   

n.民主主义者，民主人士( democrat的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The Democrats held a pep rally on Capitol Hill yesterday. 民主党昨天在国会山召开了竞选誓师大会。
• The democrats organize a filibuster in the senate. 民主党党员组织了阻挠议事。 来自《简明英汉词典》

2 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

3 flip   

vt.快速翻动；轻抛；轻拍；n.轻抛；adj.轻浮的

参考例句：

• I had a quick flip through the book and it looked very interesting.我很快翻阅了一下那本书，看来似乎很有趣。
• Let's flip a coin to see who pays the bill.咱们来抛硬币决定谁付钱。

4 complacent   

adj.自满的；自鸣得意的

参考例句：

• We must not become complacent the moment we have some success.我们决不能一见成绩就自满起来。
• She was complacent about her achievements.她对自己的成绩沾沾自喜。

5 crimson   

n./adj.深(绯)红色(的)；vi.脸变绯红色

参考例句：

• She went crimson with embarrassment.她羞得满脸通红。
• Maple leaves have turned crimson.枫叶已经红了。

6 vigilant   

adj.警觉的，警戒的，警惕的

参考例句：

• He has to learn how to remain vigilant through these long nights.他得学会如何在这漫长的黑夜里保持警觉。
• The dog kept a vigilant guard over the house.这只狗警醒地守护着这所房屋。

7 byline   

n.署名；v.署名

参考例句：

• His byline was absent as well.他的署名也不见了。
• We wish to thank the author of this article which carries no byline.我们要感谢这篇文章的那位没有署名的作者。

8 presidency   

n.总统(校长，总经理)的职位(任期)

参考例句：

• Roosevelt was elected four times to the presidency of the United States.罗斯福连续当选四届美国总统。
• Two candidates are emerging as contestants for the presidency.两位候选人最终成为总统职位竞争者。

9 intensity   

n.强烈，剧烈；强度；烈度

参考例句：

• I didn't realize the intensity of people's feelings on this issue.我没有意识到这一问题能引起群情激奋。
• The strike is growing in intensity.罢工日益加剧。

10 energized   

v.给予…精力，能量( energize的过去式和过去分词 )；使通电

参考例句：

• We are energized by love if we put our energy into loving. 如果我们付出能量去表现爱意，爱就会使我们充满活力。 来自辞典例句
• I am completely energized and feeling terrific. 我充满了活力，感觉非常好。 来自辞典例句

11 suburban   

adj.城郊的，在郊区的

参考例句：

• Suburban shopping centers were springing up all over America. 效区的商业中心在美国如雨后春笋般地兴起。
• There's a lot of good things about suburban living.郊区生活是有许多优点。

12 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

13 demographer   

n.人口统计学家

参考例句：

• Professor Antonio Golini is a demographer at the University of Rome. 罗马大学安东尼奥教授是位人口统计学家。 来自互联网
• Demographer William Frey says immigrants with young families will help keep the United States competitive. 人口统计学家佛瑞表示这些年轻的家庭会帮助美国保持竞争力。 来自互联网

14 odds   

n.让步，机率，可能性，比率；胜败优劣之别

参考例句：

• The odds are 5 to 1 that she will win.她获胜的机会是五比一。
• Do you know the odds of winning the lottery once?你知道赢得一次彩票的几率多大吗？

15 coalition   

n.结合体，同盟，结合，联合

参考例句：

• The several parties formed a coalition.这几个政党组成了政治联盟。
• Coalition forces take great care to avoid civilian casualties.联盟军队竭尽全力避免造成平民伤亡。

16 coalitions   

结合体，同盟( coalition的名词复数 )； （两党或多党）联合政府

参考例句：

• History testifies to the ineptitude of coalitions in waging war. 历史昭示我们，多数国家联合作战，其进行甚为困难。
• All the coalitions in history have disintegrated sooner or later. 历史上任何联盟迟早都垮台了。

17 repeal   

n.废止，撤消；v.废止，撤消

参考例句：

• He plans to repeal a number of current policies.他计划废除一些当前的政策。
• He has made out a strong case for the repeal of the law.他提出强有力的理由，赞成废除该法令。

18 amendment   

n.改正，修正，改善，修正案

参考例句：

• The amendment was rejected by 207 voters to 143.这项修正案以207票对143票被否决。
• The Opposition has tabled an amendment to the bill.反对党已经就该议案提交了一项修正条款。

19 tariffs   

关税制度； 关税( tariff的名词复数 )； 关税表； （旅馆或饭店等的）收费表； 量刑标准

参考例句：

• British industry was sheltered from foreign competition by protective tariffs. 保护性关税使英国工业免受国际竞争影响。
• The new tariffs have put a stranglehold on trade. 新的关税制对开展贸易极为不利。

20 drawn   

v.拖，拉，拔出；adj.憔悴的，紧张的

参考例句：

• All the characters in the story are drawn from life.故事中的所有人物都取材于生活。
• Her gaze was drawn irresistibly to the scene outside.她的目光禁不住被外面的风景所吸引。

21 opposition   

n.反对，敌对

参考例句：

• The party leader is facing opposition in his own backyard.该党领袖在自己的党內遇到了反对。
• The police tried to break down the prisoner's opposition.警察设法制住了那个囚犯的反抗。

22 incumbent   

adj.成为责任的，有义务的；现任的，在职的

参考例句：

• He defeated the incumbent governor by a large plurality.他以压倒多数票击败了现任州长。
• It is incumbent upon you to warn them.你有责任警告他们。

23 incumbents   

教区牧师( incumbent的名词复数 )； 教会中的任职者

参考例句：

• In general, incumbents have a 94 percent chance of being reelected. 通常现任官员有94%的几率会再次当选。
• This arangement yields a wonderful gain to incumbents. 这种安排为在职人员提供了意外的得益。

24 mighty   

adj.强有力的；巨大的

参考例句：

• A mighty force was about to break loose.一股巨大的力量即将迸发而出。
• The mighty iceberg came into view.巨大的冰山出现在眼前。

25 fortress   

n.堡垒，防御工事

参考例句：

• They made an attempt on a fortress.他们试图夺取这一要塞。
• The soldier scaled the wall of the fortress by turret.士兵通过塔车攀登上了要塞的城墙。