美国国家公共电台 NPR Biden, Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg? Anything Can Happen Before Voting Begins

 

NOEL KING, HOST:

In just one month, the Iowa caucuses¹ start. And eight days later comes the New Hampshire primary. NPR senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro is watching the run-up. And, Domenico, candidates have put out their latest fundraising numbers. How's everyone doing?

DOMENICO MONTANARO, BYLINE²: Well, look. The big number was from Bernie Sanders in the last quarter. He raised $35 million, which is a pretty big number for a primary. Pete Buttigieg, the former mayor of South Bend, Ind., now, raised $25 million. Joe Biden, the former vice³ president, raised about $23 million. And Andrew Yang had his best quarter with $17 million. We still have not heard from Elizabeth Warren, which shows she's not exactly touting⁴ these numbers. You know, I think it's really significant that Sanders has raised this kind of money. It shows tremendous grassroots support. And it means he'll be there for the long haul.

You know, Biden's campaign is pretty happy with their numbers. They're breathing a sigh of relief. Their numbers are up from the last quarter and shows donors⁵ are sticking with him. But he's going to have to do well in Iowa and New Hampshire to keep that support going for later primaries. To put these numbers in some context, though, Donald Trump⁶, the president, has raised $46 million, more than any of the candidates. He has more than $100 million cash on hand. And Mayor Mike Bloomberg, who's running in the Democratic primary but not competing in the first four states - he's spending more on ads in the first week of this year - $36 million - than Bernie Sanders raised in the entire last quarter that just ended.

KING: He really is his own thing. All right. Let's talk about Iowa and New Hampshire. Candidates really need to do well here, don't they? Or at least some candidates really need to do well, right?

MONTANARO: The name of the game is momentum⁷. You know, in past elections, Iowa and New Hampshire really shaped the narrative⁸ of what's going on. And no one's been able to ignore the first two states and win the nomination⁹. Just one candidate in the last 40 years has lost both Iowa and New Hampshire and won the Democratic nomination. That was Bill Clinton. He competed, though, in both of those places. He wound up losing to people who had something of home-state advantages. And his second-place showing in New Hampshire got him dubbed¹⁰ the comeback kid.

KING: So ultimately, does a candidate's performance in Iowa or New Hampshire indicate who will get the nomination or who will become president? Do we know anything?

MONTANARO: I know everyone wants to know if they're predictive of who gets the nomination. But, you know, Iowa is actually a lot more predictive than New Hampshire. Seven of the last 9 Iowa Democratic winners since 1976 have become the nominee¹¹, including the last four Iowa winners. Just 5 of the last 9 New Hampshire winners have become the nominee and neither of the last two from 2016 or 2008. No one in that time who became the nominee has won New Hampshire and not won Iowa, too. So you, know, that's an important thing to keep in mind. When it comes to becoming president, people in New Hampshire have a little bit of shade that they like to throw at people from Iowa. They like to say that people from New Hampshire pick presidents, and people from Iowa pick corn.

KING: Ooh.

MONTANARO: Not on the Democratic side. That is just not true. There have been three Democratic presidents in the last 40 years - Barack Obama, Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter. And Carter is the only one who won New Hampshire.

KING: OK. And I know, Domenico, that you've also been following polls pretty carefully. What can you tell us about what you're seeing and whether or not it matters at this point?

MONTANARO: Look. Polls are snapshots in time. They're not meant to be predictive. And in 2 of the last 3 competitive Democratic races, the same person leading in the polls in both states a month out won the contest. But a caveat¹² here - the results are often very different than those poll numbers a month earlier. And in 2004, Howard Dean was the one up by a lot. And John Kerry is the one who won.

KING: All right. Expect anything. NPR senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro. Thanks, Domenico.

MONTANARO: You're welcome.

1 caucuses   

n.（政党决定政策或推举竞选人的）核心成员( caucus的名词复数 )；决策干部；决策委员会；秘密会议

参考例句：

• Republican caucuses will happen in about 410 towns across Maine. 共和党团会议选举将在缅因州的约410个城镇进行。 来自互联网

2 byline   

n.署名；v.署名

参考例句：

• His byline was absent as well.他的署名也不见了。
• We wish to thank the author of this article which carries no byline.我们要感谢这篇文章的那位没有署名的作者。

3 vice   

n.坏事；恶习；[pl.]台钳，老虎钳；adj.副的

参考例句：

• He guarded himself against vice.他避免染上坏习惯。
• They are sunk in the depth of vice.他们堕入了罪恶的深渊。

4 touting   

v.兜售( tout的现在分词 )；招揽；侦查；探听赛马情报

参考例句：

• He's been touting his novel around publishers for years. 他几年来一直到处找出版商兜售自己的小说。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Technology industry leaders are touting cars as a hot area for growth. 科技产业领袖吹捧为增长热点地区的汽车。 来自互联网

5 donors   

n.捐赠者( donor的名词复数 )；献血者；捐血者；器官捐献者

参考例句：

• Please email us to be removed from our active list of blood donors. 假如你想把自己的名字从献血联系人名单中删去，请给我们发电子邮件。
• About half this amount comes from individual donors and bequests. 这笔钱大约有一半来自个人捐赠及遗赠。 来自《简明英汉词典》

6 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

7 momentum   

n.动力，冲力，势头；动量

参考例句：

• We exploit the energy and momentum conservation laws in this way.我们就是这样利用能量和动量守恒定律的。
• The law of momentum conservation could supplant Newton's third law.动量守恒定律可以取代牛顿第三定律。

8 narrative   

n.叙述，故事；adj.叙事的，故事体的

参考例句：

• He was a writer of great narrative power.他是一位颇有记述能力的作家。
• Neither author was very strong on narrative.两个作者都不是很善于讲故事。

9 nomination   

n.提名，任命，提名权

参考例句：

• John is favourite to get the nomination for club president.约翰最有希望被提名为俱乐部主席。
• Few people pronounced for his nomination.很少人表示赞成他的提名。

10 dubbed   

v.给…起绰号( dub的过去式和过去分词 )；把…称为；配音；复制

参考例句：

• Mathematics was once dubbed the handmaiden of the sciences. 数学曾一度被视为各门科学的基础。
• Is the movie dubbed or does it have subtitles? 这部电影是配音的还是打字幕的？ 来自《简明英汉词典》

11 nominee   

n.被提名者；被任命者；被推荐者

参考例句：

• His nominee for vice president was elected only after a second ballot.他提名的副总统在两轮投票后才当选。
• Mr.Francisco is standing as the official nominee for the post of District Secretary.弗朗西斯科先生是行政书记职位的正式提名人。

12 caveat   

n.警告； 防止误解的说明

参考例句：

• I would offer a caveat for those who want to join me in the dual calling.为防止发生误解，我想对那些想要步我后尘的人提出警告。
• As I have written before,that's quite a caveat.正如我以前所写，那确实是个警告。