Business Channel 2007-09-17&09-19, 欧央行行长谈及“第四次金融危机”

Concern over the subprime mess is not just isolated¹ to the US markets of course. Shaking news out of the US on housing and jobs, also had Europe's major indices falling sharply. The London FT100 down nearly 3% just in the last week. The next big question of course will the subprime blowup in the United States rein² in the strong growth we’ve been seeing overseas as the ripple³ effects continue. This weekend, I had a chance to sit down with the president of the European Central Bank Jean Claude, Trichet, in an exclusive interview. I got his thoughts on that as well as the health of the overall European economy.

...you have Europe today?

I would say our present analysis is that our baseline scenario⁴ continues to call for a European economy growing around potential. But I also said on behalf of the governing council that uncertainties⁵ had augmented⁶ because of the effects that we have observed over the last weeks and days. And so we have this combination of the baseline scenario, growth around potential and uncertainties augmenting⁷ significantly.

And final question is many people are wondering if the housing issue in the US will rein in the European economy because the European economy has been growing so strongly.

Well, we will see what happens again, as I said, uncertainties have augmented whether or not the global economy itself which is as you know very dynamic with emerging countries continuing to be very dynamic, emerging in Asia, in particular, but not only emerging in Asia. So how would the combination of what happens in the US and the rest of the world being in a dynamic state presently, how would this three combine, we would see again, baseline scenario, growth around potential, uncertainties are widening.

And Mr. Trichet also spoke⁸ to me about his former counterpart, former federal reserve chairman Alan Greenspan. We will have more of that interview with Jean Claude, Trichet about Alan Greenspan. Later on in the week and then on Monday...

Notes:

FT100: The Financial Times Index of 100 industrials

Baseline scenario: The Baseline Scenario is a projection⁹ of future community, economic and physical development trends.

1 isolated   

adj.与世隔绝的

参考例句：

• His bad behaviour was just an isolated incident. 他的不良行为只是个别事件。
• Patients with the disease should be isolated. 这种病的患者应予以隔离。

2 rein   

n.疆绳，统治，支配；vt.以僵绳控制，统治

参考例句：

• The horse answered to the slightest pull on the rein.只要缰绳轻轻一拉,马就作出反应。
• He never drew rein for a moment till he reached the river.他一刻不停地一直跑到河边。

3 ripple   

n.涟波，涟漪，波纹，粗钢梳；vt.使...起涟漪，使起波纹； vi.呈波浪状，起伏前进

参考例句：

• The pebble made a ripple on the surface of the lake.石子在湖面上激起一个涟漪。
• The small ripple split upon the beach.小小的涟漪卷来，碎在沙滩上。

4 scenario   

n.剧本，脚本；概要

参考例句：

• But the birth scenario is not completely accurate.然而分娩脚本并非完全准确的。
• This is a totally different scenario.这是完全不同的剧本。

5 uncertainties   

无把握( uncertainty的名词复数 )； 不确定； 变化不定； 无把握、不确定的事物

参考例句：

• One of the uncertainties of military duty is that you never know when you might suddenly get posted away. 任军职不稳定的因素之一是你永远不知道什么时候会突然被派往它处。
• Uncertainties affecting peace and development are on the rise. 影响和平与发展的不确定因素在增加。 来自汉英非文学 - 十六大报告

6 Augmented   

adj.增音的 动词augment的过去式和过去分词形式

参考例句：

• 'scientists won't be replaced," he claims, "but they will be augmented." 他宣称：“科学家不会被取代；相反，他们会被拓展。” 来自英汉非文学 - 科学史
• The impact of the report was augmented by its timing. 由于发表的时间选得好，这篇报导的影响更大了。

7 augmenting   

使扩张

参考例句：

• My business was now constantly augmenting, and my circumstances growing daily easier. 现在，我的业务不断扩大，我的境况日益安逸。
• I spent a penitential weekend augmenting the green acceptable. 我临时唯有利用周末在每顶绿帽子上加一点红色上去，以免男性来宾不肯戴上。

8 spoke   

n.（车轮的）辐条；轮辐；破坏某人的计划；阻挠某人的行动 v.讲，谈（speak的过去式）；说；演说；从某种观点来说

参考例句：

• They sourced the spoke nuts from our company.他们的轮辐螺帽是从我们公司获得的。
• The spokes of a wheel are the bars that connect the outer ring to the centre.辐条是轮子上连接外圈与中心的条棒。

9 projection   

n.发射，计划，突出部分

参考例句：

• Projection takes place with a minimum of awareness or conscious control.投射在最少的知觉或意识控制下发生。
• The projection of increases in number of house-holds is correct.对户数增加的推算是正确的。