Business Channel 2007-09-20&09-22, 美联储四年首度降息

Alright, you people cutting fifty basis points on the fed funds rate, / fifty basis points on the discount rate. And now the question did they get it right. Well, who better to ask than two people who have been in that room in their frist television appearance since retiring from the fed let's bring in former fed governor Susan Bies, Robert Mcteer, former president of the Dallas Fed also with us, and there could be no better time to have both of you with us with your perspective. Susan, you were there through March and your comment was…I…it isn't clear to me that Fed has to cut at this meeting and yet we got fifty on both rates, are you surprised? Did they make a mistake?

Well, I am surprised at the fifty basis points on the Fed funds rate. I didn’t think that they needed to go that aggressively on the Fed funds rate; I think the discount rate was a welcome change. But the Fed funds rate did surprise me to go fifty. I would guess that what is based on the statement is what they are concerned about, is the forecast. We know that a large part of this mortgage difficulty is only going to get worse in the next year or two, as we continue to have more and more of the teaser rate mortgages repricing upward by a couple points or more for many borrowers. And so the impact on the housing sector² is only gonna intensify³. And my guess is by going all at once now they are trying to jump ahead of what they are likely to see in the housing impact.

And Bob, where do you fall on this debate that Steven Leason was just raising which is, just, is this the Fed's effort to say here we go, we are gonna surprise everybody, we are gonna throw out a big cut ,exclamation⁴ point, we are done or they did not say they are done.

Well, as we learned the other day, Fed people don’t use exclamation point until they retire. Ur…I think, I think it was natural for them to make that reference and there might have been a little bit of a bone to throw to some potential dissenters⁶ in it. But let’s face it, inflation is still an issue. However, I think they did exactly the right thing, and they did what I call for them to do in my latest blog posting if you wanna look it up.

I did look it up, I, I've read it. I see it here you were completely right. Susan, can I ask you a question though? Since you were there in March, how much dissent⁵ was there, in your view, in the room when they went through this decision? Beacuse this wasn't what everybody expected, no one knew what to expect, so I can’t imagine it was easy and everyone says “Ok, unanimous fifty, fifty!”

I would think there would have been a fairly robust⁷ discussion around the table. Now There is few new members around the table from the time I was there, we've got a couple of new presidents in the room. And I don’t really know where they may stand on this. But I think the fact that we have such an unprecedented⁸ experience going on in the subprime market. Usually when we have problems with mortgage defaults we are in a general recession. And that isn't happening here. It also hits when interest rates are rising quickly. That isn’t happening. These are all due to the structure of the individual mortgage loans and the teasier periods that they had. So that makes it difficult to relook at past history to do the forecast. So I imagine part of the discussion was around how to look at the forecast about the broader economic impact. Coz a lot of companies are still reporting good earnings⁹, retail¹⁰ sales are good, so the economics in the real economy right now are looking like they are still sound outside of the housing market.

Bob, what about another issue that you raised in your blog? You said the reluctance¹¹ to borrow, you are saying if we cut interest rates, people may be more interested in borrowing money, but it won’t solve the bigger picture problem which appears to be a reluctance to lend which as you are saying in your blog is not helped by lower interest rate. It almost makes me think the Fed isn't really relevant here they can’t solve the problem

Well if this thing leads to a recession and I do think the odds¹² of that have gone up considerably¹³, the easing will help moderate the recession or might even help ward¹ it off. I do think though that this is a little bit of different kind of credit crunch¹⁴. Back in the early nineties that credit crunch involved both the reluctance to lend and the reluctance to borrow. As far as I know right now, it’s only lenders that are afraid to lend, borrowers are eager. And you don’t really stimulate¹⁵ lending by lowering interest rates.

Alright, well, Susan and Bob, thank you very much. Very intersting, we'll continue to dissect¹⁶ this decision.

Notes:

Teaser Rate: A very low but very temporary introductory rate on an adjustable¹⁷ rate mortgage or credit card.

 

1 ward   

n.守卫，监护，病房，行政区，由监护人或法院保护的人（尤指儿童）；vt.守护，躲开

参考例句：

• The hospital has a medical ward and a surgical ward.这家医院有内科病房和外科病房。
• During the evening picnic,I'll carry a torch to ward off the bugs.傍晚野餐时，我要点根火把，抵挡蚊虫。

2 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。

3 intensify   

vt.加强；变强；加剧

参考例句：

• We must intensify our educational work among our own troops.我们必须加强自己部队的教育工作。
• They were ordered to intensify their patrols to protect our air space.他们奉命加强巡逻，保卫我国的领空。

4 exclamation   

n.感叹号，惊呼，惊叹词

参考例句：

• He could not restrain an exclamation of approval.他禁不住喝一声采。
• The author used three exclamation marks at the end of the last sentence to wake up the readers.作者在文章的最后一句连用了三个惊叹号，以引起读者的注意。

5 dissent   

n./v.不同意，持异议

参考例句：

• It is too late now to make any dissent.现在提出异议太晚了。
• He felt her shoulders gave a wriggle of dissent.他感到她的肩膀因为不同意而动了一下。

6 dissenters   

n.持异议者，持不同意见者( dissenter的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• He attacked the indulgence shown to religious dissenters. 他抨击对宗教上持不同政见者表现出的宽容。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• (The dissenters would have allowed even more leeway to the Secretary.) （持异议者还会给行政长官留有更多的余地。） 来自英汉非文学 - 行政法

7 robust   

adj.强壮的，强健的，粗野的，需要体力的，浓的

参考例句：

• She is too tall and robust.她个子太高，身体太壮。
• China wants to keep growth robust to reduce poverty and avoid job losses,AP commented.美联社评论道，中国希望保持经济强势增长，以减少贫困和失业状况。

8 unprecedented   

adj.无前例的，新奇的

参考例句：

• The air crash caused an unprecedented number of deaths.这次空难的死亡人数是空前的。
• A flood of this sort is really unprecedented.这样大的洪水真是十年九不遇。

9 earnings   

n.工资收人；利润，利益，所得

参考例句：

• That old man lives on the earnings of his daughter.那个老人靠他女儿的收入维持生活。
• Last year there was a 20% decrease in his earnings.去年他的收入减少了20%。

10 retail   

v./n.零售；adv.以零售价格

参考例句：

• In this shop they retail tobacco and sweets.这家铺子零售香烟和糖果。
• These shoes retail at 10 yuan a pair.这些鞋子零卖10元一双。

11 reluctance   

n.厌恶，讨厌，勉强，不情愿

参考例句：

• The police released Andrew with reluctance.警方勉强把安德鲁放走了。
• He showed the greatest reluctance to make a reply.他表示很不愿意答复。

12 odds   

n.让步，机率，可能性，比率；胜败优劣之别

参考例句：

• The odds are 5 to 1 that she will win.她获胜的机会是五比一。
• Do you know the odds of winning the lottery once?你知道赢得一次彩票的几率多大吗？

13 considerably   

adv.极大地；相当大地；在很大程度上

参考例句：

• The economic situation has changed considerably.经济形势已发生了相当大的变化。
• The gap has narrowed considerably.分歧大大缩小了。

14 crunch   

n.关键时刻；艰难局面；v.发出碎裂声

参考例句：

• If it comes to the crunch they'll support us.关键时刻他们是会支持我们的。
• People who crunch nuts at the movies can be very annoying.看电影时嘎吱作声地嚼干果的人会使人十分讨厌。

15 stimulate   

vt.刺激，使兴奋；激励，使…振奋

参考例句：

• Your encouragement will stimulate me to further efforts.你的鼓励会激发我进一步努力。
• Success will stimulate the people for fresh efforts.成功能鼓舞人们去作新的努力。

16 dissect   

v.分割；解剖

参考例句：

• In biology class we had to dissect a frog.上生物课时我们得解剖青蛙。
• Not everyone can dissect and digest the public information they receive.不是每个人都可以解析和消化他们得到的公共信息的。

17 adjustable   

adj.可调整的，可校准的

参考例句：

• More expensive cameras have adjustable focusing.比较贵的照相机有可调焦距。
• The chair has the virtue of being adjustable.这种椅子具有可调节的优点。