商业报道:美或陷入衰退

What do we think Ben Bernanke is going to say today and how closely will the market be listening?

First of all, the market is going to listen very carefully, and secondly¹, we have to compare what Bernanke is going to say when compared to the interest rates statement which was delivered last Wednesday. Now as you know, the interest rates statement was putting the Federal Reserve at a neutral interest rates stance. And I guess that after the statement have been released, there have been a lot of negative news, not so much on the economic front but it had been on the financial sector². So he is going to be asked by people participating in that joint³ committee, what the Fed believes is going on in the financial sector and he has to give an answer. I guess that overall, his statement today is going to be more dovish than the interest rates statement and that is going to be the key for the foreign exchange market. So I assume the US dollar has more weakness ahead.

Well I was going to ask you, is there anything that he can say or indeed do that can stop this slide on the dollar?

Well, we have to figure out where the problem is. We have so far a US-centered problem which has to do with the housing market and has to do with related financial sectors⁴ and mortgage market and so forth⁵. And that means the United States do need higher net exports as a buffer⁶ to support the economic growth to make sure that that economy is not slipping into a recession.

What about the oil prices? We are seeing record highs once again today really gonna be touching⁷ clearly I would expect 100 dollars a barrel some time soon. How worrying is that?

Well, as far, oil prices did not really play in a lot typically because oil prices are still lower in the real terms than they were in the 80s. So if you do the inflation adjustments, then the price of oil in the 80s was higher than the current oil price. That's smooth change when we are seeing oil prices moving above 105. The second point is that we are using less oil relative to GDP and relative to disposable income. But of course the pace of the increase is a matter of concern. It's working inflationary. It does paralyze central banks to some extent. And therefore, it is a point of worry and I am a bit surprised that the equity⁸ markets are holding up so well. We have to consider what are the economic consequences of that and obviously it does not look too good to if you have a forecast of rise of about 6 months or a year.

Notes:

Dovish: Dovish refers to an economic outlook which generally supports lower interest rates. Doves take the position that inflationary pressures are low enough for low interest rates to be desirable

1 secondly   

adv.第二，其次

参考例句：

• Secondly,use your own head and present your point of view.第二，动脑筋提出自己的见解。
• Secondly it is necessary to define the applied load.其次，需要确定所作用的载荷。

2 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。

3 joint   

adj.联合的，共同的；n.关节，接合处；v.连接，贴合

参考例句：

• I had a bad fall,which put my shoulder out of joint.我重重地摔了一跤，肩膀脫臼了。
• We wrote a letter in joint names.我们联名写了封信。

4 sectors   

n.部门( sector的名词复数 )；领域；防御地区；扇形

参考例句：

• Berlin was divided into four sectors after the war. 战后柏林分成了4 个区。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Industry and agriculture are the two important sectors of the national economy. 工业和农业是国民经济的两个重要部门。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

5 forth   

adv.向前；向外，往外

参考例句：

• The wind moved the trees gently back and forth.风吹得树轻轻地来回摇晃。
• He gave forth a series of works in rapid succession.他很快连续发表了一系列的作品。

6 buffer   

n.起缓冲作用的人(或物)，缓冲器；vt.缓冲

参考例句：

• A little money can be a useful buffer in time of need.在急需时，很少一点钱就能解燃眉之急。
• Romantic love will buffer you against life's hardships.浪漫的爱会减轻生活的艰辛。

7 touching   

adj.动人的，使人感伤的

参考例句：

• It was a touching sight.这是一幅动人的景象。
• His letter was touching.他的信很感人。

8 equity   

n.公正，公平，（无固定利息的）股票

参考例句：

• They shared the work of the house with equity.他们公平地分担家务。
• To capture his equity,Murphy must either sell or refinance.要获得资产净值，墨菲必须出售或者重新融资。