商业报道:亚洲区增长预测

I spoke¹ earlier to Bob Parker who's the deputy chairman of Credit Suisse asset management. I asked him whether he's impressed by the new highs in Asia and whether those numbers can be sustained.

Well certainly it's justified² by the high levels of growth that we are seeing in Asia. And you know, we stick with our view that Chinese growth for example this year will be well above 10 % may actually come out to 12 %. Um, and it also is justified by the high level of savings³ which are now being transfered from bank deposits into equity⁴ markets. Now having said that the Asian markets which we have been long of and have been recommending to our clients for at least the last 2-3 years are now becoming expensive. That our pockets are undervaluation in Asia and I would highlight the Japanese market, Taiwan and possibly, Thailand and Malaysia. But over all Asia has a block that's gone from being cheap two years ago to now expensive relative to other equity markets.

So treat with caution but does that mean that we should be keeping on money mainly in Europe in the United States or in the United States or is there still a worry that we could see a slowdown which take the shine of those markets?

Well I think the first point to make is that on our models, globally equities⁵ are cheap relative to other asset classes. So I think the equity market rally that we have had this year with the interuption in August. Um, I think taking a 3-6 months view is still intact. Within equity markets the geographic⁶ markets which are the cheapest today are still a core Europe, Germany France Italy. And quite very interestingly Japan. Japan on our model is gone(So it sounds like terribly,I mean we had a very very bad year last year)it's been...(and not so good to stride there.)it's just been one of the worst performing equity markets for the year last 18 months. And Japan 9 months ago looked very expensive now Japan is moving up to being one of the cheapest equity markets.

In the last few days we have had 4 of the biggest banks, Merrilynch, Deutsche Bank, UBS and Citigroup announce huge write-downs in round numbers just those 4 are gonna write down 15 billion dollars in round numbers. Are you impressed with that? Does that draw the pain, draw the poison out of the subprime or equity crisis.

I think the simple anwser is yes. Having said that the subprime market is 700 billion US dollars and we estimate that going into 2008 the default rate on subprime could actually rise close to 20%. So I think the subprime crisis is not over. It's gonna take months if not years to sort out.

OK. What about the dollar though, I mean clearly we are looking at an ailing⁷ dollar. Does that suggest to you that there are a lot of imbalances and difficulties in the financial system of gain, of which we should beware as investors⁸?

Well I think the primary source of the problems for the US dollar is obviously the expectation that interest rates will come down further in the United States and I think that's right. And the trade and current account deficit⁹ one of the surprises going into the 2008 may well be the improvement in the trade uh, in current account position of the United States as we see an economy which is growing more moderately and therefore importing less. Against the Euro the dollar is clearly undervalued and I would be very surprised if we actually break out of this range of 140-145 one dollar Euro towards 150. I think we actually could be forming a base for the dollar against the Euro. It's a different question against the Asian currencies which I think appreciate on trend and one should obviously highlight the fact that the Japanese yen¹⁰ is probably now the most undervalued currency in the world.

Notes:

round numbers: A round number is a number that ends with one or more zeroes (0), meaning that they are multiples of 10, 100, 1000, and so on.

1 spoke   

n.（车轮的）辐条；轮辐；破坏某人的计划；阻挠某人的行动 v.讲，谈（speak的过去式）；说；演说；从某种观点来说

参考例句：

• They sourced the spoke nuts from our company.他们的轮辐螺帽是从我们公司获得的。
• The spokes of a wheel are the bars that connect the outer ring to the centre.辐条是轮子上连接外圈与中心的条棒。

2 justified   

a.正当的，有理的

参考例句：

• She felt fully justified in asking for her money back. 她认为有充分的理由要求退款。
• The prisoner has certainly justified his claims by his actions. 那个囚犯确实已用自己的行动表明他的要求是正当的。

3 savings   

n.存款，储蓄

参考例句：

• I can't afford the vacation,for it would eat up my savings.我度不起假，那样会把我的积蓄用光的。
• By this time he had used up all his savings.到这时，他的存款已全部用完。

4 equity   

n.公正，公平，（无固定利息的）股票

参考例句：

• They shared the work of the house with equity.他们公平地分担家务。
• To capture his equity,Murphy must either sell or refinance.要获得资产净值，墨菲必须出售或者重新融资。

5 equities   

普通股，股票

参考例句：

• These are invested mainly in the OECD bonds and equities. 这些资产主要投资于经济合作及发展组织的债券与股票市场。
• They are also advantage of the global rebound in equities. 它们还在利用全球股市反弹的机会。

6 geographic   

adj.地理学的，地理的

参考例句：

• The city's success owes much to its geographic position. 这座城市的成功很大程度上归功于它的地理位置。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Environmental problems pay no heed to these geographic lines. 环境问题并不理会这些地理界限。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法

7 ailing   

v.生病

参考例句：

• They discussed the problems ailing the steel industry. 他们讨论了困扰钢铁工业的问题。
• She looked after her ailing father. 她照顾有病的父亲。

8 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

9 deficit   

n.亏空，亏损；赤字，逆差

参考例句：

• The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事们报告赤字为250万美元。
• We have a great deficit this year.我们今年有很大亏损。

10 yen   

n. 日元；热望

参考例句：

• He wanted to convert his dollars into Japanese yen.他想将美元换成日币。
• He has a yen to be alone in a boat.他渴望独自呆在一条船上。