商业报道:美元跌势暂缓

Will the Dollar fall further?

Andrew Wilkinson, analyst¹ at Interactive² Brokers³, says the US dollar won't likely fall further with investors⁴ pricing in interest rate cuts

I’m Lisa Twaronite, with market watch. How will the recently battered⁵ dollar fare in 2008? And joining me today is Andrew Wilkinson, senior market analyst with Interactive brokers.

Thanks for having me, Lisa.

Thank you for being here. With the US Federal Reserve poised⁶ to cut interest rates further, how far do you think the dollar's gonna fall?

I don't think the dollor's got that much further to fall if at all. There are so many intereste rate cuts already priced into the Euro- dollar strip, that i find it difficult to see that investors can't , can't already discount the prospect⁷ of a better economy later on this year for the United States. And that would help out global growth.

To what extent do you think the dollar's fall so far relfects a lack of confidence in the US economy.

There are other fundamental reasons, such as the wild trade and the budget deficits⁸, that have helped drive down the value of the dollar over the last five or six years, and with the strong motor of growth that the US economy provided and particularly over the last couple of years. The two things don't really match, so, i'm not convinced this is a lack of confidence based upon the decline in the housing market, or the explosion of the housing market, so i think, i think they'are looking forward to the dollar's prospects⁹ a little brighter.

And do you think the weaker dollar is one of the reasons that US Sovereign wealth funds have been buying stakes in US financial firms so far?

Certainly, i think, the value, the outright¹⁰ value of the dollar makes those investments appealing. But, i think that having fallen by more than 30% a lot of these banking¹¹ stocks look extremely appealing, particularly to overseas investors, so this is a double whammy forward, and i think this is a great long-term investing relationship for the Sovereign Wealth funds, and it's curious particularly a time when the retail¹² investors and probably a lot of institutional investors on this side of the Atlantic, are throwing in the town, and we are seeing some capitulation in the stock markets.

At what point this year do you think the dollar is going to solidly turn around?

I think January, 2008, is right now, is going to be a point of turnaround, probably for both the stock market, and for the dollar. I think, we've, it's curious to see that the value of the Euro hasn't made a fresh height for this move, given the absolute plummet¹³ in the value of the stock indices. So if it's not gonna happen now, it says, certainly doesn't feel like its gonna happen later this year.

All right, thank you very much. Thanks Lisa. Andrew Wilkinson from interactive brokers.

 

美元会继续下跌吗？

盈透公司分析师Andrew Wilkinson说，由于投资者利率定价下降，美元不可能进一步下跌。

我是“市场观察”节目的Lisa，2008年美元市场走势如何？今天盈透公司资深分析师Andrew Wilkinson将为我们谈谈这一问题。

谢谢lisa。

谢谢您能参加。美国联邦储备局准备进一步减息，您认为美元还会跌多少？

我一点都不认为美元会跌得太多。欧元兑美元的利率已经讲了很多，很难讲投资者不能期待后半年美国的经济能够好转。这将有利于全球经济的增长。

您认为美元下跌在多大程度上反映了人们对美国经济缺乏信心？

这有其他的根本原因，比如预算赤字，这导致了过去五六年里美元价值的下跌，以及尤其是过去几年里美国经济提供的强大的增长动力。这两者并不是很匹配的，所以，谈到房屋市场下跌或者说爆炸，我并不认为这是缺乏信心的表现。所以我认为，美元的前景会好一些。

至今主权财富基金已经是美国金融公司的购买赌注，您认为弱美元是其中的一个原因吗？

当然了。我认为美元的价值、美元的直接价值使得这种投资很有吸引力。但是我认为那些跌了30%的银行证券对投资者相当有吸引力，特别是对海外投资者来说。所以这是个有晦气的前进，我认为我们和主权财富基金将会保持一段长期的投资关系，尤其是零售业投资者和大西洋这边的可能的大量机构投资者，他们正在抛出股票，我们可以在证券市场上看到投降的现象。

您认为今年美元将会在多大程度上转向坚挺？

我想是2008年一月份，也就是现在，美元将会走向拐点，这可能发生在证券市场和美元市场上。

whammy ['w?mi, 'hw?mi]

n. 晦气, 剧烈的打击

1 analyst   

n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家

参考例句：

• What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
• The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。

2 interactive   

adj.相互作用的，互相影响的，（电脑）交互的

参考例句：

• The psychotherapy is carried out in small interactive groups.这种心理治疗是在互动的小组之间进行的。
• This will make videogames more interactive than ever.这将使电子游戏的互动性更胜以往。

3 brokers   

n.（股票、外币等）经纪人( broker的名词复数 )；中间人；代理商；（订合同的）中人v.做掮客（或中人等）( broker的第三人称单数 )；作为权力经纪人进行谈判；以中间人等身份安排…

参考例句：

• The firm in question was Alsbery & Co., whiskey brokers. 那家公司叫阿尔斯伯里公司，经销威士忌。 来自英汉文学 - 嘉莉妹妹
• From time to time a telephone would ring in the brokers' offices. 那两排经纪人房间里不时响着叮令的电话。 来自子夜部分

4 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

5 battered   

adj.磨损的；v.连续猛击；磨损

参考例句：

• He drove up in a battered old car.他开着一辆又老又破的旧车。
• The world was brutally battered but it survived.这个世界遭受了惨重的创伤,但它还是生存下来了。

6 poised   

a.摆好姿势不动的

参考例句：

• The hawk poised in mid-air ready to swoop. 老鹰在半空中盘旋，准备俯冲。
• Tina was tense, her hand poised over the telephone. 蒂娜心情紧张，手悬在电话机上。

7 prospect   

n.前景，前途；景色，视野

参考例句：

• This state of things holds out a cheerful prospect.事态呈现出可喜的前景。
• The prospect became more evident.前景变得更加明朗了。

8 deficits   

n.不足额( deficit的名词复数 )；赤字；亏空；亏损

参考例句：

• The Ministry of Finance consistently overestimated its budget deficits. 财政部一贯高估预算赤字。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Many of the world's farmers are also incurring economic deficits. 世界上许多农民还在遭受经济上的亏损。 来自辞典例句

9 prospects   

n.希望，前途(恒为复数)

参考例句：

• There is a mood of pessimism in the company about future job prospects. 公司中有一种对工作前景悲观的情绪。
• They are less sanguine about the company's long-term prospects. 他们对公司的远景不那么乐观。

10 outright   

adv.坦率地；彻底地；立即；adj.无疑的；彻底的

参考例句：

• If you have a complaint you should tell me outright.如果你有不满意的事，你应该直率地对我说。
• You should persuade her to marry you outright.你应该彻底劝服她嫁给你。

11 banking   

n.银行业，银行学，金融业

参考例句：

• John is launching his son on a career in banking.约翰打算让儿子在银行界谋一个新职位。
• He possesses an extensive knowledge of banking.他具有广博的银行业务知识。

12 retail   

v./n.零售；adv.以零售价格

参考例句：

• In this shop they retail tobacco and sweets.这家铺子零售香烟和糖果。
• These shoes retail at 10 yuan a pair.这些鞋子零卖10元一双。

13 plummet   

vi.(价格、水平等)骤然下跌；n.铅坠；重压物

参考例句：

• Mengniu and Yili have seen their shares plummet since the incident broke.自事件发生以来，蒙牛和伊利的股票大幅下跌。
• Even if rice prices were to plummet,other brakes on poverty alleviation remain.就算大米价格下跌，其它阻止导致贫困的因素仍然存在。