英国卫报:你还在相信统计数据吗?(8)

To recognise how statistics have been entangled¹ in notions of national progress, consider the case of GDP. GDP is an estimate of the sum total of a nation's consumer spending, government spending, investments and trade balance (exports minus imports), which is represented in a single number. This is fiendishly difficult to get right, and efforts to calculate this figure began, like so many mathematical techniques, as a matter of marginal, somewhat nerdish interest during the 1930s. It was only elevated to a matter of national political urgency by the second world war, when governments needed to know whether the national population was producing enough to keep up the war effort. In the decades that followed, this single indicator², though never without its critics, took on a hallowed political status, as the ultimate barometer³ of a government's competence⁴. Whether GDP is rising or falling is now virtually a proxy⁵ for whether society is moving forwards or backwards⁶.

想要认识统计数据是如何与国家进步的概念纠缠在一起的，不妨以GDP为例。GDP用一个数字表示，是对一个国家的消费支出、政府支出、投资和贸易平衡(出口减去进口)总和的估计。计算这个数字是极其困难的。在20世纪30年代，为之所付出的努力就像许多数学技术一样，只是一种边缘的、有点书呆子气的兴趣。直到第二次世界大战时，各国政府需要知道全国人口是否有足够的生产能力来维持战争，这个问题才被提升为国家政治上的紧急事项。在接下来的几十年里，这个单一的指标尽管从来没有遭到过批评，却获得了神圣的政治地位，成为了评判政府能力的终极晴雨表。GDP是上升还是下降，实际上已经成为社会前进还是后退的一个指标。

Or take the example of opinion polling, an early instance of statistical⁷ innovation occurring in the private sector⁸. During the 1920s, statisticians developed methods for identifying a representative sample of survey respondents, so as to glean⁹ the attitudes of the public as a whole. This breakthrough, which was first seized upon by market researchers, soon led to the birth of the opinion polling. This new industry immediately became the object of public and political fascination¹⁰, as the media reported on what this new science told us about what "women" or "Americans" or "manual labourers" thought about the world.

再以民意调查为例，民意调查是私营部门统计创新的早期例子。20世纪20年代间，统计学家发明了一些方法：在调查对象中确定一个具有代表性的样本，以此来收集公众的整体态度。这一突破最初被市场研究人员使用，之后不久民意调查由此衍生，这一行业也随即成为公众和政界关注的对象，因为这一新兴科学向我们展示了“女性”、“美国人”或者“体力劳动者”对世界的看法，而媒体对此进行了报道。

Nowadays, the flaws of polling are endlessly picked apart. But this is partly due to the tremendous hopes that have been invested in polling since its origins. It is only to the extent that we believe in mass democracy that we are so fascinated or concerned by what the public thinks. But for the most part it is thanks to statistics, and not to democratic institutions as such, that we can know what the public thinks about specific issues. We underestimate how much of our sense of "the public interest" is rooted in expert calculation, as opposed to democratic institutions.

如今，民意调查的缺陷愈加显露，一定程度上是因为人们从一开始便对投票寄予了厚望。只有在我们相信大众民主的程度上，我们才会对公众的想法如此着迷或关心。但在很大程度上，我们能够了解公众对具体问题的看法要归功于统计数据而不是民主制度本身。我们低估了大众的“公共利益”感来源于专家的计算而不是民主制度的程度。

1 entangled   

adj.卷入的；陷入的；被缠住的；缠在一起的v.使某人（某物/自己）缠绕，纠缠于（某物中），使某人（自己）陷入（困难或复杂的环境中）( entangle的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• The bird had become entangled in the wire netting. 那只小鸟被铁丝网缠住了。
• Some military observers fear the US could get entangled in another war. 一些军事观察家担心美国会卷入另一场战争。 来自《简明英汉词典》

2 indicator   

n.指标；指示物，指示者；指示器

参考例句：

• Gold prices are often seen as an indicator of inflation.黃金价格常常被看作是通货膨胀的指标。
• His left-hand indicator is flashing.他左手边的转向灯正在闪亮。

3 barometer   

n.气压表，睛雨表，反应指标

参考例句：

• The barometer marked a continuing fall in atmospheric pressure.气压表表明气压在继续下降。
• The arrow on the barometer was pointing to"stormy".气压计上的箭头指向“有暴风雨”。

4 competence   

n.能力，胜任，称职

参考例句：

• This mess is a poor reflection on his competence.这种混乱情况说明他难当此任。
• These are matters within the competence of the court.这些是法院权限以内的事。

5 proxy   

n.代理权，代表权；（对代理人的）委托书；代理人

参考例句：

• You may appoint a proxy to vote for you.你可以委托他人代你投票。
• We enclose a form of proxy for use at the Annual General Meeting.我们附上委任年度大会代表的表格。

6 backwards   

adv.往回地，向原处，倒，相反，前后倒置地

参考例句：

• He turned on the light and began to pace backwards and forwards.他打开电灯并开始走来走去。
• All the girls fell over backwards to get the party ready.姑娘们迫不及待地为聚会做准备。

7 statistical   

adj.统计的，统计学的

参考例句：

• He showed the price fluctuations in a statistical table.他用统计表显示价格的波动。
• They're making detailed statistical analysis.他们正在做具体的统计分析。

8 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。

9 glean   

v.收集(消息、资料、情报等)

参考例句：

• The little information that we could glean about them was largely contradictory.我们能够收集到的有关它们的少量信息大部分是自相矛盾的。
• From what I was able to glean,it appears they don't intend to take any action yet.根据我所收集到的资料分析，他们看来还不打算采取任何行动。

10 fascination   

n.令人着迷的事物，魅力，迷恋

参考例句：

• He had a deep fascination with all forms of transport.他对所有的运输工具都很着迷。
• His letters have been a source of fascination to a wide audience.广大观众一直迷恋于他的来信。