特朗普总统将带来失序世界

 　　Sometimes history jumps.

　　历史有时会发生跳跃。

　　Think of the first world war, the Bolshevik revolution, the Great Depression, the election of Adolf Hitler, the second world war, the beginning of the cold war, the collapse¹ of the European empires, Deng Xiaoping’s reform and opening up of China, the demise² of the Soviet³ Union, and the financial crisis of 2007-09 and subsequent great recession.

　　想想第一次世界大战、布尔什维克革命（Bolshevik Revolution，即俄国十月革命）、大萧条、阿道夫?希特勒(Adolf Hitler)当选、第二次世界大战、冷战爆发、多个欧洲帝国的瓦解、邓小平在中国实施的改革开放、苏联解体，以及2007-09年的金融危机和随后的大衰退。

　　We may be on the brink⁴ of an event as transformative as many of these: the election of Donald Trump⁵ as US president.

　　我们或许即将面临一起类似的转折性事件：唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)当选美国总统。

　　特朗普总统将带来失序世界

　　This would mark the end of a US-led west as the central force in global affairs.

　　那将标志着以美国为首的西方在全球事务中担当核心角色的时代就要终结。

　　The result would not be a new order. It would be perilous⁷ disorder⁸.

　　其结果将不是形成新秩序，而是出现危险的失序。

　　The fact that Mr Trump can be a credible⁹ contender for the presidency¹⁰ is astounding¹¹.

　　特朗普能够成为一名有希望当选的总统竞选者，这一事实令人咋舌。

　　In business, he is a serial¹² defaulter and litigator turned reality TV star.

　　在商界，他从一个连续违约者和诉讼当事人转型为真人秀电视明星。

　　He is a peddler of falsehoods and conspiracy¹³ theories.

　　他兜售谎言和阴谋论。

　　He utters racist¹⁴ calumnies¹⁵.

　　他进行种族主义诽谤。

　　He attacks the independence of the judiciary.

　　他抨击司法机构的独立性。

　　He refuses to reveal his taxes.

　　他拒绝披露自己的税单。

　　He has no experience of political office, and incoherent policies.

　　他没有从政经验，没有连贯的政策。

　　He glories in ignorance.

　　他以无知为荣。

　　He even hints at a federal default.

　　他甚至暗示联邦政府可以违约。

　　He undermines confidence in the US-created trade order, by threatening to tear up past agreements.

　　他威胁要撕毁过去达成的贸易协定，削弱了人们对美国创建的贸易秩序的信心。

　　He undermines confidence in US democracy by claiming the election will be rigged.

　　他声称大选将被操纵，削弱了人们对美国民主的信心。

　　He supports torture and the deliberate killing¹⁶ of the families of alleged¹⁷ terrorists.

　　他支持酷刑，支持故意杀死疑似恐怖分子的家人。

　　He admires the former KGB agent who runs Russia.

　　他钦佩正在掌管俄罗斯的那名前克格勃(KGB)特工。

　　Evidently, a huge number of US voters have lost confidence in the country’s political and economic systems.

　　显然，数量众多的美国选民已经对这个国家的政治经济体系失去了信心。

　　This is so to an extent not seen even in the 1930s, when voters turned towards an established politician.

　　其程度之严重，即便是在上世纪30年代也未曾见过，当时选民们支持一位老牌政治家。

　　Yet, for all its challenges, the US is not in such terrible shape.

　　然而，尽管面临各种挑战，目前美国的情况并不是很糟。

　　It is the richest large country in the history of the world.

　　它是世界历史上最富有的大国。

　　Growth is slow, but unemployment is low.

　　增长缓慢，但失业率低。

　　If voters were to choose Mr Trump — despite his failings, displayed again in the first presidential debate — this would tell us grim things about the health of the US.

　　如果选民们选择了特朗普——尽管他有很多缺点并且在第一次竞选辩论中再次暴露无遗——这将告诉我们美国健康状况有多严峻。

　　It is the world’s leading power, so this is not just a domestic US concern.

　　美国是世界舞台上处于领导地位的大国，所以这个问题不只是美国国内民众会关心。

　　What might a Trump presidency mean? Forecasting the policies of someone so uNPRedictable is impossible.

　　特朗普当选总统可能意味着什么？要预测一个如此难以预测之人的政策，是绝无可能的。

　　But a few things seem at least reasonably clear.

　　但有几点至少是相当明确的。

　　The US and its allies remain immensely powerful.

　　美国及其盟友仍然非常强大。

　　But their economic dominance is in slow decline.

　　但它们的经济主导地位正在缓慢下降。

　　According to the International Monetary¹⁸ Fund, the share of the high-income countries (essentially, the US and its chief allies) will fall from 64 per cent of global output (measured at purchasing power) in 1990 to 39 per cent in 2020, while the US share will fall from 22 per cent to 15 per cent over this period.

　　国际货币基金组织(IMF)数据显示，高收入国家（基本上就是美国及其主要盟友）占全球产出的比例（按购买力计算）将从1990年的64%下降到2020年的39%，而同期美国的占比将从22%下降至15%。

　　While the US military might is still huge, two caveats¹⁹ must be made.

　　尽管美国的军力仍然强大，但有两点需要说明。

　　One is that winning a conventional war is quite a different matter from achieving one’s aims on the ground, as the Viet-nam and Iraq wars showed.

　　一个是，正如越南战争和伊拉克战争所显示的那样，打赢一场常规战争与实现你在地面上的目标是完全不同的事情。

　　Furthermore, China’s rapidly rising defence spending could create serious military difficulties for the US in the Asia-Pacific region.

　　此外，中国的国防开支迅速增加，可能会使美国在亚太地区面临严重的军事难题。

　　It follows that the ability of the US to shape the world to its liking²⁰ will rest increasingly on its influence over the global economic and political systems.

　　由此可见，美国按照自己意愿塑造世界的能力，将越来越多地依赖于其对全球经济和政治体系的影响力。

　　Indeed, this is not new.

　　事实上，这并不是什么新鲜事。

　　It has been a feature of US hegemony since the 1940s.

　　这已成为自1940年以来美国霸权的一个特点。

　　But this is even more important today.

　　但在今天，这一点显得更重要。

　　The alliances the US creates, the institutions it supports and the prestige it possesses are truly invaluable²¹ assets.

　　美国创建的联盟、支持的机构和拥有的声望，是真正无价的资产。

　　All such strategic assets would be in grave peril⁶ if Mr Trump were to be president.

　　如果特朗普成为总统，所有这些战略性资产都将面临严重危险。

　　The biggest contrast between the US and China is that the former has so many powerful allies.

　　美国和中国的最大不同在于，前者有众多强大盟友。

　　Even Vladimir Putin is not a reliable ally for China.

　　而对中国来说，即便普京也非可靠盟友。

　　America’s allies support the US largely because they trust it.

　　美国的盟友支持美国，主要是因为它们信任美国。

　　That trust is based on its perceived commitment to predictable, values-based behaviour.

　　这种信任是基于它们认为，美国会采取的行动是可以预测、以价值观为基础的。

　　Its alliances have not been problem-free, far from it.

　　美国的联盟关系并非毫无问题，远非如此。

　　But they have worked.

　　但是，这些联盟是起作用的。

　　Mr Trump’s cherished uNPRedictability and transactional approach to partnerships²² would damage the alliances irreparably.

　　特朗普所重视的不可预测性，以及把伙伴关系当成交易处理的做法，将会对联盟关系造成不可挽回的损害。

　　A vital feature of the US-led global order has been the role of multilateral institutions, such as the IMF, the World Bank and the World Trade Organisation²³.

　　美国领导下的全球秩序的一个重要特征是多边机构——如国际货币基金组织、世界银行(World Bank)和世界贸易组织(WTO)——所扮演的角色。

　　In binding²⁴ itself by the rules of an open economic system, the US has encouraged others to do the same.

　　通过以开放经济体系的规则约束自己，美国也鼓励了其他国家这么做。

　　The result has been extraordinary growth in prosperity: between 1950 and 2015, average global real output per head rose sixfold.

　　其结果就是经济的快速繁荣：1950年至2015年间，全球人均实际产出增长了6倍。

　　Mr Trump does not understand this system.

　　特朗普不理解这种开放经济体系。

　　The results of repudiation²⁵ could be calamitous²⁶ for all.

　　抛弃这种体系，可能给所有人带来灾难性的后果。

　　The Iraq war has damaged trust in US wisdom and competence²⁷.

　　伊拉克战争损害了世人对美国智慧和能力的信心。

　　But the global financial crisis has been even more destructive.

　　但是，全球金融危机产生了更大的破坏效果。

　　Many have long suspected US motives²⁸.

　　许多人一直怀疑美国的动机。

　　But they thought it knew how to manage a capitalist system.

　　但他们曾认为美国懂得如何管理一个资本主义体系。

　　The crisis devastated²⁹ that confidence.

　　危机已摧毁了这种信心。

　　After all this damage, election of a man as unqualified as Mr Trump would call into question something even more fundamental: belief in the capacity of the US to choose reasonably well-informed and competent leaders.

　　在遭受这一切损害之后，把特朗普这样一个不称职的人选上台，将使一种更根本的东西遭到质疑：那就是人们对于美国有能力选出见多识广、能干的领导人的信心。

　　Under a President Trump, the democratic system would lose much of its credibility as a model for the organisation of a civilised political life.

　　如果特朗普当上总统，民主制度作为文明政治生活组织制度之典范的信誉将损失大半。

　　Mr Putin and other actual or would-be despots would cheer.

　　普京和其他当前的独裁者以及未来的准独裁者将会欢呼。

　　Their belief that talk of western values is just hypocrisy³⁰ would be vindicated³¹.

　　他们认为谈论西方价值观只是虚伪作派的观点将被证明是正确的。

　　But those who see the US as a bastion of democracy would despair.

　　但是，那些把美国视为民主堡垒的人会感到绝望。

　　If Mr Trump were to win, it would be a regime change for the world.

　　如果特朗普获胜，这将是整个世界都要面对的一场政权更迭。

　　It would, for example, end efforts to manage the threat of climate change, possibly forever.

　　比如，应对气候变化威胁的努力大概将从此不了了之。

　　But even his candidacy suggests that the US role in the global order risks undergoing a transformation³².

　　但是，他成为总统候选人就已表明，美国在全球秩序中的角色可能经历一场转变。

　　That role depended not only on American economic and military prowess, but also on the values it represented.

　　这个角色不仅依赖于美国的经济和军事实力，也依赖于它所代表的价值观。

　　For all its mistakes, the ideal of a law-governed democratic republic remained visible.

　　尽管有许多错误，一个法治的民主共和国的理想依然明显可见。

　　Hillary Clinton is an imperfect candidate.

　　希拉里?克林顿(Hillary Clinton)是一个不完美的候选人。

　　Mr Trump is something else altogether.

　　特朗普则完全是另类。

　　Far from making America great, his presidency might unravel³³ the world.

　　他若成为美国总统，非但不能让美国变得伟大，还可能让世界分崩离析。

1 collapse   

vi.累倒；昏倒；倒塌；塌陷

参考例句：

• The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
• The engineer made a complete diagnosis of the bridge's collapse.工程师对桥的倒塌做了一次彻底的调查分析。

2 demise   

n.死亡；v.让渡，遗赠，转让

参考例句：

• He praised the union's aims but predicted its early demise.他赞扬协会的目标，但预期这一协会很快会消亡。
• The war brought about the industry's sudden demise.战争道致这个行业就这么突然垮了。

3 Soviet   

adj.苏联的，苏维埃的；n.苏维埃

参考例句：

• Zhukov was a marshal of the former Soviet Union.朱可夫是前苏联的一位元帅。
• Germany began to attack the Soviet Union in 1941.德国在1941年开始进攻苏联。

4 brink   

n.(悬崖、河流等的)边缘，边沿

参考例句：

• The tree grew on the brink of the cliff.那棵树生长在峭壁的边缘。
• The two countries were poised on the brink of war.这两个国家处于交战的边缘。

5 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

6 peril   

n.(严重的)危险；危险的事物

参考例句：

• The refugees were in peril of death from hunger.难民有饿死的危险。
• The embankment is in great peril.河堤岌岌可危。

7 perilous   

adj.危险的，冒险的

参考例句：

• The journey through the jungle was perilous.穿过丛林的旅行充满了危险。
• We have been carried in safety through a perilous crisis.历经一连串危机，我们如今已安然无恙。

8 disorder   

n.紊乱，混乱；骚动，骚乱；疾病，失调

参考例句：

• When returning back,he discovered the room to be in disorder.回家后，他发现屋子里乱七八糟。
• It contained a vast number of letters in great disorder.里面七零八落地装着许多信件。

9 credible   

adj.可信任的，可靠的

参考例句：

• The news report is hardly credible.这则新闻报道令人难以置信。
• Is there a credible alternative to the nuclear deterrent?是否有可以取代核威慑力量的可靠办法？

10 presidency   

n.总统(校长，总经理)的职位(任期)

参考例句：

• Roosevelt was elected four times to the presidency of the United States.罗斯福连续当选四届美国总统。
• Two candidates are emerging as contestants for the presidency.两位候选人最终成为总统职位竞争者。

11 astounding   

adj.使人震惊的vt.使震惊，使大吃一惊astound的现在分词)

参考例句：

• There was an astounding 20% increase in sales. 销售量惊人地增加了20%。
• The Chairman's remarks were so astounding that the audience listened to him with bated breath. 主席说的话令人吃惊，所以听众都屏息听他说。 来自《简明英汉词典》

12 serial   

n.连本影片，连本电视节目；adj.连续的

参考例句：

• A new serial is starting on television tonight.今晚电视开播一部新的电视连续剧。
• Can you account for the serial failures in our experiment?你能解释我们实验屡屡失败的原因吗？

13 conspiracy   

n.阴谋，密谋，共谋

参考例句：

• The men were found guilty of conspiracy to murder.这些人被裁决犯有阴谋杀人罪。
• He claimed that it was all a conspiracy against him.他声称这一切都是一场针对他的阴谋。

14 racist   

n.种族主义者，种族主义分子

参考例句：

• a series of racist attacks 一连串的种族袭击行为
• His speech presented racist ideas under the guise of nationalism. 他的讲话以民族主义为幌子宣扬种族主义思想。

15 calumnies   

n.诬蔑，诽谤，中伤（的话）( calumny的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• He doesn't care about scandals, slanders, calumnies, aspersions, or defamation. 他不在乎流言蜚语，诽谤，中伤，造谣，诬蔑。 来自互联网
• Spreading rumors and calumnies and plotting riots. 造谣诽谤，策动骚乱。 来自互联网

16 killing   

n.巨额利润；突然赚大钱，发大财

参考例句：

• Investors are set to make a killing from the sell-off.投资者准备清仓以便大赚一笔。
• Last week my brother made a killing on Wall Street.上个周我兄弟在华尔街赚了一大笔。

17 alleged   

a.被指控的，嫌疑的

参考例句：

• It was alleged that he had taken bribes while in office. 他被指称在任时收受贿赂。
• alleged irregularities in the election campaign 被指称竞选运动中的不正当行为

18 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

19 caveats   

警告

参考例句：

• I would offer a caveat for those who want to join me in the dual calling. 为防止发生误解，我想对那些想要步我后尘的人提出警告。 来自辞典例句
• As I have written before, that's quite a caveat. 正如我以前所写，那确实是个警告。 来自互联网

20 liking   

n.爱好；嗜好；喜欢

参考例句：

• The word palate also means taste or liking.Palate这个词也有“口味”或“嗜好”的意思。
• I must admit I have no liking for exaggeration.我必须承认我不喜欢夸大其词。

21 invaluable   

adj.无价的，非常宝贵的，极为贵重的

参考例句：

• A computer would have been invaluable for this job.一台计算机对这个工作的作用会是无法估计的。
• This information was invaluable to him.这个消息对他来说是非常宝贵的。

22 partnerships   

n.伙伴关系( partnership的名词复数 )；合伙人身份；合作关系

参考例句：

• Partnerships suffer another major disadvantage: decision-making is shared. 合伙企业的另一主要缺点是决定要由大家来作。 来自英汉非文学 - 政府文件
• It involved selling off limited partnerships. 它涉及到售出有限的合伙权。 来自辞典例句

23 organisation   

n.组织，安排，团体，有机休

参考例句：

• The method of his organisation work is worth commending.他的组织工作的方法值得称道。
• His application for membership of the organisation was rejected.他想要加入该组织的申请遭到了拒绝。

24 binding   

有约束力的，有效的，应遵守的

参考例句：

• The contract was not signed and has no binding force. 合同没有签署因而没有约束力。
• Both sides have agreed that the arbitration will be binding. 双方都赞同仲裁具有约束力。

25 repudiation   

n.拒绝；否认；断绝关系；抛弃

参考例句：

• Datas non-repudiation is very important in the secure communication. 在安全数据的通讯中，数据发送和接收的非否认十分重要。 来自互联网
• There are some goals of Certified E-mail Protocol: confidentiality non-repudiation and fairness. 挂号电子邮件协议需要具备保密性、不可否认性及公平性。 来自互联网

26 calamitous   

adj.灾难的，悲惨的；多灾多难；惨重

参考例句：

• We are exposed to the most calamitous accidents. 我们遭受着极大的灾难。 来自辞典例句
• Light reveals the subtle alteration of things, the sly or calamitous impermanence or mortal life. 事物的细微变动，人生的狡猾，倏忽无常，一一都在光中显露出来。 来自辞典例句

27 competence   

n.能力，胜任，称职

参考例句：

• This mess is a poor reflection on his competence.这种混乱情况说明他难当此任。
• These are matters within the competence of the court.这些是法院权限以内的事。

28 motives   

n.动机，目的( motive的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• to impeach sb's motives 怀疑某人的动机
• His motives are unclear. 他的用意不明。

29 devastated   

v.彻底破坏( devastate的过去式和过去分词)；摧毁；毁灭；在感情上（精神上、财务上等）压垮adj.毁坏的；极为震惊的

参考例句：

• The bomb devastated much of the old part of the city. 这颗炸弹炸毁了旧城的一大片地方。
• His family is absolutely devastated. 他的一家感到极为震惊。

30 hypocrisy   

n.伪善，虚伪

参考例句：

• He railed against hypocrisy and greed.他痛斥伪善和贪婪的行为。
• He accused newspapers of hypocrisy in their treatment of the story.他指责了报纸在报道该新闻时的虚伪。

31 vindicated   

v.澄清（某人/某事物）受到的责难或嫌疑( vindicate的过去式和过去分词 )；表明或证明（所争辩的事物）属实、正当、有效等；维护

参考例句：

• I have every confidence that this decision will be fully vindicated. 我完全相信这一决定的正确性将得到充分证明。
• Subsequent events vindicated the policy. 后来的事实证明那政策是对的。 来自《简明英汉词典》

32 transformation   

n.变化；改造；转变

参考例句：

• Going to college brought about a dramatic transformation in her outlook.上大学使她的观念发生了巨大的变化。
• He was struggling to make the transformation from single man to responsible husband.他正在努力使自己由单身汉变为可靠的丈夫。

33 unravel   

v.弄清楚（秘密）；拆开，解开，松开

参考例句：

• He was good with his hands and could unravel a knot or untangle yarn that others wouldn't even attempt.他的手很灵巧，其他人甚至都不敢尝试的一些难解的绳结或缠在一起的纱线，他都能解开。
• This is the attitude that led him to unravel a mystery that long puzzled Chinese historians.正是这种态度使他解决了长期以来使中国历史学家们大惑不解的谜。