中国楼市犍牛可否继续疯跑

 　　When Sino Land’s Robert Ng first came to Hong Kong from Singapore about three decades ago, the real estate developer bid aggressively at land auctions¹ and was widely seen to be an interloper.

　　当信和置业(Sino Land)的黄志祥(Robert Ng)大约30年前首次从新加坡来到香港的时候，这位房地产开发商在土地拍卖中积极投标，很多人把他看作一名闯入者。

　　Conventional wisdom was that he overpaid for everything, used a lot of debt and would surely implode².

　　大家都认为，黄志祥高价拿地，大量举债，将来肯定要破产。

　　However, as market prices kept rising, his aggressive faith paid off big time and today, he is one of the top property tycoons³ in Hong Kong.

　　然而，随着市场价格持续上涨，这种激进理念给他带来了巨大收益。如今，黄志祥是香港顶级房地产大亨之一。

　　中国楼市犍牛可否继续疯跑

　　Now, Chinese developers are the object of a similar debate.

　　现在，中国内地的房地产开发商引发了一场类似的争论。

　　Property, particularly residential⁴ property, has been very volatile⁵, stories of vast ghost cities abound⁶ and few people have any desire to live in fourth-tier cities, the only ones where property is even remotely affordable⁷ for most of the population.

　　房地产（尤其是住宅地产）市场波动剧烈，到处是鬼城传闻，没有多少人愿意住在四线城市，而多数人只有在这类城市才勉强买得起房子。

　　Many analysts⁸ consider the most leveraged⁹ mainland developers vulnerable to a financial blow-up at any time.

　　许多分析师认为，中国内地杠杆化程度最大的开发商随时可能爆发财务危机。

　　Some of them, such as China Evergrande Group have debt loads of upwards¹⁰ of $60bn (according to its first-half interim¹¹ unaudited results).

　　有些开发商的债务负担超过600亿美元，比如中国恒大集团（根据该公司未经审计的半年报）。

　　Moreover, Hong Kong has seen an influx¹² of mainland development activity, suggesting that these players are not particularly bullish on their prospects¹³ at home.

　　此外，内地开发商纷纷涌入香港拓展业务，表明这些开发商对内地房地产前景并非特别看好。

　　But as so often is the case with China, the doomsayers may well be wrong.

　　但中国的情况往往是，悲观预言者很可能是错的。

　　Property as an asset class has become important in China — maybe too important.

　　房地产作为一个资产类别在中国非常重要——可能过于重要了。

　　It is critical to the financial system (since 70 per cent of all bank loans are backed by real estate collateral), as a source of economic growth and as a source of savings¹⁴ and wealth for many households.

　　作为经济增长源头以及许多家庭储蓄和财富的源泉，房地产对中国金融体系至为关键（因为70%的银行贷款是房地产抵押物支持的）。

　　It is hard for China’s domestic economy to do well if property does not.

　　如果房地产不行，中国国内经济很难表现良好。

　　Property is an alternative currency in China, says Nicole Wang, the regional head of property research for CLSA in Hong Kong.

　　香港里昂证券(CLSA)的房产研究部门地区主管Nicole Wang表示：在中国，房地产就是一种替代货币。

　　But no asset class is as sensitive to liquidity¹⁵’s soothing¹⁶ effect as property and there is a lot of liquidity in China.

　　但是，对于流动性所具有的安抚效果，没有一种资产类别像房地产那么敏感，而中国有大量的流动性。

　　And as it always does, liquidity is buoying¹⁷ the property market, well beyond the first-tier cities where so many couples go through staged divorces just so that they can each buy a starter home on more attractive terms.

　　一如既往，流动性正在推高房地产市场，而且远不止是在一线城市——在许多一线城市，许多夫妇假离婚以便每人能够以更有利条款购买首套房。

　　New home prices jumped 1.3 per cent month over month in August, the strongest increase since 2011, according to data from JPMorgan.

　　摩根大通(JPMorgan)的数据显示，今年8月，新房价格环比上涨1.3%，为2011年以来的最大涨幅。

　　Only four cities reported a drop in new home prices while they rose in 64 cities, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics.

　　中国国家统计局的数据显示，只有4个城市的新房价格下降，而64个城市的新房价格上涨。

　　And economists¹⁸ such as Haibin Zhu of JPMorgan dismiss recent tightening¹⁹ measures as not aggressive enough and likely to curtail²⁰ supply, thereby²¹ driving up prices even more.

　　摩根大通的朱海斌等经济学家认为最近的收紧措施力度不够大，并可能抑制供应，从而进一步推升房价。

　　Liquidity is coming from the sky, says one Hong Kong-based hedge fund manager, noting that 40 per cent of all global money supply in recent years has come from China.

　　香港的一位对冲基金经理表示：流动性好似从天上来。他指出，最近几年全球货币供应有40%来自中国。

　　So even as central banks in Japan and the US debate helicopter money for local infrastructure²² and other ambitious development projects, China comes closest to realising that concept as it ramps²³ up its money printing presses.

　　因此，在日本和美国的央行讨论采取直升机撒钱方式，上马本地基础设施和其他大项目之际，中国已加快了印钞速度，这是其距离认识直升机撒钱这个概念最近的时候。

　　China’s total social financing for August was again at highs set earlier this year, while for the first half it amounted to $1.5tn, he adds.

　　他补充称，中国8月份的社会融资总量再次达到今年早些时候的高点，而上半年达到1.5万亿美元。

　　Mortgage loans are growing rapidly; almost one-third of the increase in loans in the first half came from the property sector²⁴, according to data from the CLSA arm of Citic Securities.

　　抵押贷款迅速增长；中信证券(Citic Securities)旗下里昂证券(CLSA)的数据显示，今年上半年，近三分之一贷款增量来自房地产领域。

　　The second-round impact outside China is already being felt as the price of copper²⁵ and other commodities recover.

　　随着铜和其他大宗商品价格回升，中国以外的地区正在感受这种增长的第二轮影响。

　　Moreover, there are a lot of reasons why the business is attractive in Hong Kong that do not point to a meltdown in the property market across the border.

　　此外，香港房地产业务具有吸引力有许多原因，它并不意味着内地房地产市场将会崩溃。

　　That is true of course despite the excessive borrowings, the apparent oversupply²⁶ in unattractive places and the political risk which can haunt even the most attractive property firms such as Kaisa or Fosun.

　　情况确实如此，尽管存在过度借贷、非热点区域供应过多以及困扰佳兆业(Kaisa)或复星(Fosun)等著名房地产公司的政治风险。

　　Those factors include lower taxes and bigger scale, and also — it is true — the desire for US dollar assets, according to Ms Wang.

　　Nicole Wang表示，香港具有吸引力的因素包括较低的税率和较大的规模，还有人们对美元资产的胃口（的确如此）。

　　There are risks of course, among them affordability²⁷ as income growth slows.

　　当然也存在一些风险，其中包括随着收入增长放缓而出现的购买能力下降。

　　A recent informal survey in Singapore showed that a majority of those polled would prefer to own a luxury residential tower there than holding 30-year US Treasury²⁸ bond.

　　新加坡最近的一项非正式调查显示，大多数受访者拥有中国一套豪宅的意愿超过持有30年期美国国债。

　　Only one investor²⁹ questioned landlords’ ability to raise rents going forward.

　　只有一位投资者质疑业主未来提高租金的能力。

　　China is not the only place where such questions are being asked.

　　中国并非唯一遭受此类质疑的地区。

1 auctions   

n.拍卖，拍卖方式( auction的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• They picked up most of the furniture at auctions in country towns. 他们大部分的家具都是在乡村镇上的拍卖处买的。 来自辞典例句
• Our dealers didn't want these cars, so we had to dump them at auctions. 我们的承销商都不要这些车子，因此我们只好贱价拍卖。 来自辞典例句

2 implode   

v.内爆，剧减

参考例句：

• The engine imploded.发动机内爆了。
• He has nightmares about the tanks imploding.他老是做油箱爆炸的噩梦。

3 tycoons   

大君( tycoon的名词复数 )； 将军； 企业巨头； 大亨

参考例句：

• The great tycoons were fierce competitors, single-minded in their pursuit of financial success and power. 企业巨头都是激烈的竞争者，他们一心追求钱财和权势。
• Tycoons and their conglomerates are even raising money again on international markets. 企业大亨们以及他们的企业甚至正再次从国际市场上筹集资金。

4 residential   

adj.提供住宿的；居住的；住宅的

参考例句：

• The mayor inspected the residential section of the city.市长视察了该市的住宅区。
• The residential blocks were integrated with the rest of the college.住宿区与学院其他部分结合在了一起。

5 volatile   

adj.反复无常的，挥发性的，稍纵即逝的，脾气火爆的；n.挥发性物质

参考例句：

• With the markets being so volatile,investments are at great risk.由于市场那么变化不定，投资冒着很大的风险。
• His character was weak and volatile.他这个人意志薄弱，喜怒无常。

6 abound   

vi.大量存在；(in，with)充满，富于

参考例句：

• Oranges abound here all the year round.这里一年到头都有很多橙子。
• But problems abound in the management of State-owned companies.但是在国有企业的管理中仍然存在不少问题。

7 affordable   

adj.支付得起的，不太昂贵的

参考例句：

• The rent for the four-roomed house is affordable.四居室房屋的房租付得起。
• There are few affordable apartments in big cities.在大城市中没有几所公寓是便宜的。

8 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

9 leveraged   

促使…改变( leverage的过去式和过去分词 )； [美国英语]杠杆式投机，（使）举债经营，（使）利用贷款进行投机

参考例句：

• Chrysler has traditionally been a highly leveraged company. 克莱斯勒一向是一家周转十分灵活的公司。
• Leveraged recaps have become popular for a number of reasons. 杠杆资本重组的大行其道有好几个原因。

10 upwards   

adv.向上，在更高处...以上

参考例句：

• The trend of prices is still upwards.物价的趋向是仍在上涨。
• The smoke rose straight upwards.烟一直向上升。

11 interim   

adj.暂时的，临时的；n.间歇，过渡期间

参考例句：

• The government is taking interim measures to help those in immediate need.政府正在采取临时措施帮助那些有立即需要的人。
• It may turn out to be an interim technology.这可能只是个过渡技术。

12 influx   

n.流入，注入

参考例句：

• The country simply cannot absorb this influx of refugees.这个国家实在不能接纳这么多涌入的难民。
• Textile workers favoured protection because they feared an influx of cheap cloth.纺织工人拥护贸易保护措施，因为他们担心涌入廉价纺织品。

13 prospects   

n.希望，前途(恒为复数)

参考例句：

• There is a mood of pessimism in the company about future job prospects. 公司中有一种对工作前景悲观的情绪。
• They are less sanguine about the company's long-term prospects. 他们对公司的远景不那么乐观。

14 savings   

n.存款，储蓄

参考例句：

• I can't afford the vacation,for it would eat up my savings.我度不起假，那样会把我的积蓄用光的。
• By this time he had used up all his savings.到这时，他的存款已全部用完。

15 liquidity   

n.流动性，偿债能力，流动资产

参考例句：

• The bank has progressively increased its liquidity.银行逐渐地增加其流动资产。
• The demand for and the supply of credit is closely linked to changes in liquidity.信用的供求和流动资金的变化有密切关系。

16 soothing   

adj.慰藉的；使人宽心的；镇静的

参考例句：

• Put on some nice soothing music.播放一些柔和舒缓的音乐。
• His casual, relaxed manner was very soothing.他随意而放松的举动让人很快便平静下来。

17 buoying   

v.使浮起( buoy的现在分词 )；支持；为…设浮标；振奋…的精神

参考例句：

• For years, the government has been buoying up cotton prices. 多年来政府一直保持棉花高价格。 来自互联网
• He is buoying the channel. 他在用浮标指示航道。 来自互联网

18 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

19 tightening   

上紧，固定，紧密

参考例句：

• Make sure the washer is firmly seated before tightening the pipe. 旋紧水管之前，检查一下洗衣机是否已牢牢地固定在底座上了。
• It needs tightening up a little. 它还需要再收紧些。

20 curtail   

vt.截短，缩短；削减

参考例句：

• The government hopes to curtail public spending.政府希望缩减公共事业开支。
• The minister had to curtail his visit.部长不得不缩短访问日期。

21 thereby   

adv.因此，从而

参考例句：

• I have never been to that city,,ereby I don't know much about it.我从未去过那座城市，因此对它不怎么熟悉。
• He became a British citizen,thereby gaining the right to vote.他成了英国公民，因而得到了投票权。

22 infrastructure   

n.下部构造，下部组织，基础结构，基础设施

参考例句：

• We should step up the development of infrastructure for research.加强科学基础设施建设。
• We should strengthen cultural infrastructure and boost various types of popular culture.加强文化基础设施建设，发展各类群众文化。

23 ramps   

resources allocation and multiproject scheduling 资源分配和多项目的行程安排

参考例句：

• Ramps should be provided for wheelchair users. 应该给轮椅使用者提供坡道。
• He has the upper floor and ramps are fitted everywhere for his convenience. 他住在上面一层，为了他的方便着想，到处设有坡道。

24 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。

25 copper   

n.铜；铜币；铜器；adj.铜(制)的；(紫)铜色的

参考例句：

• The students are asked to prove the purity of copper.要求学生们检验铜的纯度。
• Copper is a good medium for the conduction of heat and electricity.铜是热和电的良导体。

26 oversupply   

n.供应过量；v.过度供给

参考例句：

• The market softened because of oversupply.市场因供过于求而疲软。
• Overexpansion of tea fields has led to oversupply.茶园过度扩张，使得市场上逐渐供过于求。

27 affordability   

可购性

参考例句：

• Performance-Based Logistics Affordability: Can We Afford Categorical Conversion to Performance-Based Acquisition? 基于性能的后期的可承受性：能否担负得起向基于性能的采办的无条件的转变？
• There would be no crisis of affordability, as't for food or clothing. 就想食物与服装一样，因为供给没有危机。

28 treasury   

n.宝库；国库，金库；文库

参考例句：

• The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals.财政部原则上反对这些提案。
• This book is a treasury of useful information.这本书是有价值的信息宝库。

29 investor   

n.投资者，投资人

参考例句：

• My nephew is a cautious investor.我侄子是个小心谨慎的投资者。
• The investor believes that his investment will pay off handsomely soon.这个投资者相信他的投资不久会有相当大的收益。