VOA慢速英语--最新研究称印度实际的新冠死亡人数可能以百万计

New research suggests that the actual number of COVID-19 deaths in India could be as much as 10 times the official count.

An independent, non-government report released Tuesday estimates the number of deaths at between 3 to 4.7 million, from January 2020 to June 2021.

India's official government estimate of COVID-19 deaths is more than 414,000. But most health experts agree that the actual number is likely much higher.

Excess deaths

The new report estimates the number of "excess deaths" from the disease. This is generally defined as the difference between the number of observed deaths and the number of expected deaths during a specific period of time.

The research was led by Arvind Subramanian, the Indian government's former chief economic adviser¹. Researchers from the Center for Global Development -- a Washington-based think tank -- and Harvard University also helped produce the report.

The researchers admitted that it will be difficult to get a completely correct death number in India. However, such a number "is likely to be an order of magnitude greater than the official count," they said.

The team said the official count likely missed deaths because of overcrowded hospitals and widespread failures in the country's health system during a huge rise in cases earlier this year.

"True deaths are likely to be in the several millions not hundreds of thousands," the report said. The researchers said this makes the deaths "arguably India's worst human tragedy since Partition and independence."

Partition was a process that divided the British-ruled Indian subcontinent into independent India and Pakistan in 1947. When independence came, up to 1 million people are believed to have been killed in ethnic² violence involving Hindus and Muslims.

Comparing death rates

The report on India's COVID-19 deaths was based on three forms of data. One involved records from the civil registration³ system on births and deaths across seven Indian states. Another used blood tests showing levels of the virus in India alongside worldwide COVID-19 death rates. In addition, information was used from an economic survey of nearly 900,000 people completed three times per year.

The researchers warned that each method had weaknesses, such as the economic survey leaving out the causes of death. So they decided⁴ to look at deaths from all causes and compared that data to death rates in past years, a method widely considered accurate.

The team also said that virus presence and COVID-19 deaths in the seven states studied may not be consistent across all of of India. This is because the virus could have spread more in cities than rural areas and the fact that health care quality greatly differs around India.

Other nations are also believed to have undercounted deaths in the pandemic. But the difference is thought to have been greater in India because it has the world's second highest population at 1.4 billion. In addition, not all deaths are recorded in the country, even without a pandemic.

India's health ministry⁵ did not immediately answer a request by The Associated Press to comment on the report.

Dr. Jacob John, who studies viruses at Christian⁶ Medical College at Vellore in southern India, examined the report for the AP. John, who was not part of the research, said the report confirms the damaging effects that COVID-19 had on the country's underprepared health system.

The research supports "the observations of other fearless investigative journalists that have highlighted the massive undercounting of deaths," John added.

Words in This Story

excess – n. more of something than is usual or needed

think tank – n. an organization that consists of a group of people who think of new ideas on a particular subject or who give advice about what should be done

magnitude – n. the large size or importance of something

survey – n. an examination of people's opinions or behavior made by asking people questions

accurate – adj. free from mistakes or errors

consistent – adj. always behaving or happening in a similar way

highlight – v. to emphasize something or make people notice something

1 adviser   

n.劝告者，顾问

参考例句：

• They employed me as an adviser.他们聘请我当顾问。
• Our department has engaged a foreign teacher as phonetic adviser.我们系已经聘请了一位外籍老师作为语音顾问。

2 ethnic   

adj.人种的，种族的，异教徒的

参考例句：

• This music would sound more ethnic if you played it in steel drums.如果你用钢鼓演奏，这首乐曲将更具民族特色。
• The plan is likely only to aggravate ethnic frictions.这一方案很有可能只会加剧种族冲突。

3 registration   

n.登记，注册，挂号

参考例句：

• Marriage without registration is not recognized by law.法律不承认未登记的婚姻。
• What's your registration number?你挂的是几号？

4 decided   

adj.决定了的，坚决的；明显的，明确的

参考例句：

• This gave them a decided advantage over their opponents.这使他们比对手具有明显的优势。
• There is a decided difference between British and Chinese way of greeting.英国人和中国人打招呼的方式有很明显的区别。

5 ministry   

n.(政府的)部；牧师

参考例句：

• They sent a deputation to the ministry to complain.他们派了一个代表团到部里投诉。
• We probed the Air Ministry statements.我们调查了空军部的记录。

6 Christian   

adj.基督教徒的；n.基督教徒

参考例句：

• They always addressed each other by their Christian name.他们总是以教名互相称呼。
• His mother is a sincere Christian.他母亲是个虔诚的基督教徒。