VOA常速英语2007-Analysts: Pakistan Political Future Remains Unse

By Gary Thomas
Washington
11 October 2007

Pakistan held its presidential election when lawmakers voted October 6. The incumbent¹ military ruler, General Pervez Musharraf, easily won the most votes, but his victory is not yet official because of a pending² legal challenge to his candidacy. Meanwhile, former prime minister Benazir Bhutto has turned down President Musharraf's plea that she delay her planned return from exile next week. As VOA Correspondent Gary Thomas reports, Pakistan's political landscape is mired³ in uncertainty⁴.

Pakistan is in for some potentially tumultuous days ahead.

Former prime minister Benazir Bhutto is scheduled to return home next week, after striking a deal with General Musharraf to give her amnesty from prosecution⁵ on outstanding corruption⁶ charges.

Meanwhile, the Pakistan Supreme⁷ Court is to decide if General Musharraf's candidacy was illegal.

The political opposition⁸ says that because President Musharraf also retains his post as army chief of staff, he cannot legally run for president. Analysts¹⁰ say a Supreme Court ruling next week against President Musharraf, coupled with the return from exile of his main political rival, could plunge¹¹ Pakistan into political turmoil¹².

Washburn University Law Professor Ali Khan, who received his legal education in Pakistan, believes that if the court rules General Musharraf's candidacy illegal, the electoral college made up of the national parliament and four provincial¹³ assemblies, would have to hold a new presidential election.

"If it says the president cannot run because of his army chief position, the elections will be held ineffective because we do not have a second candidate who has won any considerable support in the assemblies. So the elections have to be re-held," he said.

But Middle East and Security Studies Professor Larry Goodson, of the U.S. Army War College, notes that Pakistani courts have in the past tended to side with the military against civilian¹⁴ officials, due to what they have termed "the doctrine¹⁵ of necessity."

Goodson says an anti-Musharraf ruling is possible but not likely. He believes the military is exerting heavy pressure on the Supreme Court to rule in Musharraf's favor.

"I just have this queasy¹⁶ feeling that the fix is in, that they have already locked and cocked and put the guns to the heads of the justices and basically said, 'you cannot rule in that way," he said.

Former State Department South Asia analyst⁹ Walter Andersen says an anti-Musharraf court ruling, along with Ms. Bhutto's high-profile return from self-imposed exile, might tempt¹⁷ the president to tighten¹⁸ his grip on power, especially if there are mass demonstrations¹⁹.

"That puts him in a very dangerous position. My feeling is that he might declare martial²⁰ law under those circumstances. He also might declare martial law if people come into the streets, even if the courts rule in his favor, if violence escalates²¹ in one way or the other significantly," he said.

The United States is, at least publicly, staying out of the fray²². White House Spokeswoman Dana Perino says the Bush administration has no comment on the challenge to the legitimacy²³ of the presidential election.

"We wanted there to be free and fair elections. And the Supreme Court is now, in Pakistan, is currently looking at that. And so until there is a final decision, we will decline to comment from here," she said.

Larry Goodson of the Army War College says the sudden upsurge in Pakistani army attacks against Islamic extremist groups in tribal²⁴ areas may be intended to demonstrate to Washington General Musharraf's continued importance to the war on terror.

"What is going on up there? Because some of this has seemed awfully²⁵ political to me as well, this sort of, you know, get everyone in Washington convinced that Musharraf is essential because, by golly, because he is holding the line against the militants²⁶ along the frontier. Well, gee²⁷ whiz, this seems awfully conveniently timed, as have several of these previous incidences where violence has erupted in the frontier," he said.

Once the question of the presidential election is settled, attention will turn to the parliamentary elections that are now scheduled for early January. Analysts say they will be the first real test of the popularity of Benazir Bhutto - provided, they add, that the elections are free and fair.

1 incumbent   

adj.成为责任的，有义务的；现任的，在职的

参考例句：

• He defeated the incumbent governor by a large plurality.他以压倒多数票击败了现任州长。
• It is incumbent upon you to warn them.你有责任警告他们。

2 pending   

prep.直到，等待…期间；adj.待定的；迫近的

参考例句：

• The lawsuit is still pending in the state court.这案子仍在州法庭等待定夺。
• He knew my examination was pending.他知道我就要考试了。

3 mired   

abbr.microreciprocal degree 迈尔德（色温单位）v.深陷( mire的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• The country was mired in recession. 这个国家陷入了经济衰退的困境。
• The most brilliant leadership can be mired in detail. 最有才干的领导也会陷于拘泥琐事的困境中。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

4 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

5 prosecution   

n.起诉，告发，检举，执行，经营

参考例句：

• The Smiths brought a prosecution against the organizers.史密斯家对组织者们提出起诉。
• He attempts to rebut the assertion made by the prosecution witness.他试图反驳原告方证人所作的断言。

6 corruption   

n.腐败，堕落，贪污

参考例句：

• The people asked the government to hit out against corruption and theft.人民要求政府严惩贪污盗窃。
• The old man reviled against corruption.那老人痛斥了贪污舞弊。

7 supreme   

adj.极度的，最重要的；至高的，最高的

参考例句：

• It was the supreme moment in his life.那是他一生中最重要的时刻。
• He handed up the indictment to the supreme court.他把起诉书送交最高法院。

8 opposition   

n.反对，敌对

参考例句：

• The party leader is facing opposition in his own backyard.该党领袖在自己的党內遇到了反对。
• The police tried to break down the prisoner's opposition.警察设法制住了那个囚犯的反抗。

9 analyst   

n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家

参考例句：

• What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
• The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。

10 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

11 plunge   

v.跳入，(使)投入，(使)陷入；猛冲

参考例句：

• Test pool's water temperature before you plunge in.在你跳入之前你应该测试水温。
• That would plunge them in the broil of the two countries.那将会使他们陷入这两国的争斗之中。

12 turmoil   

n.骚乱，混乱，动乱

参考例句：

• His mind was in such a turmoil that he couldn't get to sleep.内心的纷扰使他无法入睡。
• The robbery put the village in a turmoil.抢劫使全村陷入混乱。

13 provincial   

adj.省的，地方的；n．外省人，乡下人

参考例句：

• City dwellers think country folk have provincial attitudes.城里人以为乡下人思想迂腐。
• Two leading cadres came down from the provincial capital yesterday.昨天从省里下来了两位领导干部。

14 civilian   

adj.平民的，民用的，民众的

参考例句：

• There is no reliable information about civilian casualties.关于平民的伤亡还没有确凿的信息。
• He resigned his commission to take up a civilian job.他辞去军职而从事平民工作。

15 doctrine   

n.教义；主义；学说

参考例句：

• He was impelled to proclaim his doctrine.他不得不宣扬他的教义。
• The council met to consider changes to doctrine.宗教议会开会考虑更改教义。

16 queasy   

adj.易呕的

参考例句：

• I felt a little queasy on the ship.我在船上觉得有点晕眩想呕吐。
• He was very prone to seasickness and already felt queasy.他快晕船了，已经感到恶心了。

17 tempt   

vt.引诱，勾引，吸引，引起…的兴趣

参考例句：

• Nothing could tempt him to such a course of action.什么都不能诱使他去那样做。
• The fact that she had become wealthy did not tempt her to alter her frugal way of life.她有钱了，可这丝毫没能让她改变节俭的生活习惯。

18 tighten   

v.(使)变紧；(使)绷紧

参考例句：

• Turn the screw to the right to tighten it.向右转动螺钉把它拧紧。
• Some countries tighten monetary policy to avoid inflation.一些国家实行紧缩银根的货币政策，以避免通货膨胀。

19 demonstrations   

证明( demonstration的名词复数 )； 表明； 表达； 游行示威

参考例句：

• Lectures will be interspersed with practical demonstrations. 讲课中将不时插入实际示范。
• The new military government has banned strikes and demonstrations. 新的军人政府禁止罢工和示威活动。

20 martial   

adj.战争的，军事的，尚武的，威武的

参考例句：

• The sound of martial music is always inspiring.军乐声总是鼓舞人心的。
• The officer was convicted of desertion at a court martial.这名军官在军事法庭上被判犯了擅离职守罪。

21 escalates   

v.（使）逐步升级( escalate的第三人称单数 )；（使）逐步扩大；（使）更高；（使）更大

参考例句：

• As the challenge escalates, the need for teamwork elevates. 面临的挑战越大，越需要团队协同合作。 来自互联网
• I cannot understand why a minor disagreement escalates into a fist-fight. 我真不明白为什么一点意见不合就变成了拳头相见。 来自互联网

22 fray   

v.争吵；打斗；磨损，磨破；n.吵架；打斗

参考例句：

• Why should you get involved in their fray?你为什么要介入他们的争吵呢？
• Tempers began to fray in the hot weather.大热天脾气烦燥。

23 legitimacy   

n.合法，正当

参考例句：

• The newspaper was directly challenging the government's legitimacy.报纸直接质疑政府的合法性。
• Managing from the top down,we operate with full legitimacy.我们进行由上而下的管理有充分的合法性。

24 tribal   

adj.部族的，种族的

参考例句：

• He became skilled in several tribal lingoes.他精通几种部族的语言。
• The country was torn apart by fierce tribal hostilities.那个国家被部落间的激烈冲突弄得四分五裂。

25 awfully   

adv.可怕地，非常地，极端地

参考例句：

• Agriculture was awfully neglected in the past.过去农业遭到严重忽视。
• I've been feeling awfully bad about it.对这我一直感到很难受。

26 militants   

激进分子，好斗分子( militant的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The militants have been sporadically fighting the government for years. 几年来，反叛分子一直对政府实施零星的战斗。
• Despite the onslaught, Palestinian militants managed to fire off rockets. 尽管如此，巴勒斯坦的激进分子仍然发射导弹。

27 gee   

n.马；int.向右！前进！，惊讶时所发声音；v.向右转

参考例句：

• Their success last week will gee the team up.上星期的胜利将激励这支队伍继续前进。
• Gee,We're going to make a lot of money.哇！我们会赚好多钱啦！