2019年经济学人 俄罗斯正统论(2)

 

Sanctions act like a global-capital quarantine. And Russia runs a biggish current-account surplus.

制裁就像是全球资本隔离一样。俄罗斯拥有较大的经常账户盈余。

But Russia is a more hazardous¹ place for equity² investors⁴. A stock ought to be a claim on a company's assets.

但对权益投资者而言，俄罗斯是一个更加危险的地方。股票应该是对公司资产的一份声明。

A quick survey of modern history throws up reasons to doubt that such claims are secure.

对现代历史的快速调查让我们有理由怀疑这些声明是否可靠。

In 2003-04 the state seized Yukos, a giant oil company.

在2003年到2004年，政府接管了一家大型石油公司—尤科斯。

More recently a dispute over oil assets between Rosneft, the statebacked firm that absorbed Yukos's assets,

近期收购尤科斯资产的国有公司俄罗斯石油公司和一家大型企业集团Sistema

and Sistema, a big conglomerate⁵, rattled⁶ investors and gutted⁷ Sistema's share price.

因石油资产产生争端，投资者因而惊慌失措，Sistema的股价一落千丈。

Yet for the intrepid⁸, Russian stocks still have appeal. For a start, they are cheap.

但对于无畏的投资者来说，俄罗斯股市仍然具有吸引力。首先，它们很便宜。

MSCI's Russia index has a price-to earnings⁹ ratio of six, compared with 12 for its broader emerging-market index.

和其更广泛的新兴市场指数的12相比，明晟公司（MSCI）俄罗斯指数的市盈率为6.

That kind of value is bait for stockpickers, who hope to sort good long-term bets from the ones that might turn ugly.

对那些希望从可能变糟糕的长期投资中挑选出好股票的选股者而言，这种价值对他们而言是诱饵。

They cautiously avoid firms such as Gazprom, a state-owned gas producer, that are instruments of the Kremlin's strategic goals.

他们小心翼翼地避开国有天然气生产商俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司等公司，这些公司是克里姆林宫战略目标的工具。

(American sanctions have made it unwise to hold such stocks in any event.)

（无论如何，美国的制裁使得持有这类股票变得不明智。）

Instead they go for well-run firms with strong consumer brands,

相反，他们寻求那些拥有强大消费者品牌且运营良好的公司

such as Sberbank, Russia's biggest bank, or Yandex, its internet-search firm.

如俄罗斯最大的银行俄罗斯联邦储蓄银行，或其互联网搜索公司Yandex。

The state is unlikely to mess with firms on which the economy's day-to-day stability depends.

国家不太可能干预经济日常稳定所依赖的公司。

Give Russia some credit, say boosters. Macro-stability is not a given.

支持者说，给俄罗斯一些信任吧。宏观稳定不是给定的。

Central banks have come under political attack in other emerging markets—India, South Africa and Turkey—and now in America, too.

其他新兴市场的央行也受到了政治攻击—印度、南非和土耳其—现在美国也如此。

Optimists¹⁰ say that plans to cut red tape and increase public investment will lift Russia's GDP growth potential.

乐观主义者表示减少繁文缛节和增加公共投资的计划将增加俄罗斯GDP增长潜力。

Still, for the unwary investor³, Russia is a snare¹¹. Even old hands can be caught out.

不过，对于粗心的投资者来说，俄罗斯是个陷阱。即使是老手也会遭遇不测情况。

Michael Calvey, the American boss of Baring Vostok, a private-equity firm,

私人股本公司Baring Vostok的美国老板Michael Calvey

was arrested in February amid a conflict with an investment partner who has connections to the security services.

因与一名和安全部门有关的投资伙伴发生冲突而于今年2月被捕。

Despite testimonials from the boss of Sberbank and the founder¹² of Yandex, Mr Calvey remains¹³ under house arrest.

虽然有俄罗斯联邦储蓄银行老板和Yandex创始人的证词，但Calvey仍被软禁。

Realists say it is the big-picture stuff that holds the economy back.

现实主义者表示正是全局因素阻碍了经济的发展。

Establishing the rule of law and property takes political will. But it takes time, too.

建立法治和财产制度需要政治意愿。但也需要时间。

In the early 1990s a prominent Western economist¹⁴ was asked how Russia could become a thriving market economy.

在20世纪90年代初期，一位杰出的西方经济学家被问及俄罗斯如何能成为一个繁荣的市场经济。

His advice? "Get yourselves another history."

他的建议？“给你们自己另一段历史。”

1 hazardous   

adj.(有)危险的，冒险的；碰运气的

参考例句：

• These conditions are very hazardous for shipping.这些情况对航海非常不利。
• Everybody said that it was a hazardous investment.大家都说那是一次危险的投资。

2 equity   

n.公正，公平，（无固定利息的）股票

参考例句：

• They shared the work of the house with equity.他们公平地分担家务。
• To capture his equity,Murphy must either sell or refinance.要获得资产净值，墨菲必须出售或者重新融资。

3 investor   

n.投资者，投资人

参考例句：

• My nephew is a cautious investor.我侄子是个小心谨慎的投资者。
• The investor believes that his investment will pay off handsomely soon.这个投资者相信他的投资不久会有相当大的收益。

4 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

5 conglomerate   

n.综合商社，多元化集团公司

参考例句：

• The firm has been taken over by an American conglomerate.该公司已被美国一企业集团接管。
• An American conglomerate holds a major share in the company.一家美国的大联合企业持有该公司的大部分股份。

6 rattled   

慌乱的，恼火的

参考例句：

• The truck jolted and rattled over the rough ground. 卡车嘎吱嘎吱地在凹凸不平的地面上颠簸而行。
• Every time a bus went past, the windows rattled. 每逢公共汽车经过这里，窗户都格格作响。

7 gutted   

adj.容易消化的v.毁坏（建筑物等）的内部( gut的过去式和过去分词 )；取出…的内脏

参考例句：

• Disappointed? I was gutted! 失望？我是伤心透了！
• The invaders gutted the historic building. 侵略者们将那幢历史上有名的建筑洗劫一空。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

8 intrepid   

adj.无畏的，刚毅的

参考例句：

• He is not really satisfied with his intrepid action.他没有真正满意他的无畏行动。
• John's intrepid personality made him a good choice for team leader.约翰勇敢的个性适合作领导工作。

9 earnings   

n.工资收人；利润，利益，所得

参考例句：

• That old man lives on the earnings of his daughter.那个老人靠他女儿的收入维持生活。
• Last year there was a 20% decrease in his earnings.去年他的收入减少了20%。

10 optimists   

n.乐观主义者( optimist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Even optimists admit the outlook to be poor. 甚至乐观的人都认为前景不好。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Optimists reckon house prices will move up with inflation this year. 乐观人士认为今年的房价将会随通货膨胀而上涨。 来自辞典例句

11 snare   

n.陷阱，诱惑，圈套；（去除息肉或者肿瘤的）勒除器；响弦，小军鼓；vt.以陷阱捕获，诱惑

参考例句：

• I used to snare small birds such as sparrows.我曾常用罗网捕捉麻雀等小鸟。
• Most of the people realized that their scheme was simply a snare and a delusion.大多数人都认识到他们的诡计不过是一个骗人的圈套。

12 Founder   

n.创始者，缔造者

参考例句：

• He was extolled as the founder of their Florentine school.他被称颂为佛罗伦萨画派的鼻祖。
• According to the old tradition,Romulus was the founder of Rome.按照古老的传说，罗穆卢斯是古罗马的建国者。

13 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

14 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。