2021年经济学人 易受美国金融动荡影响的新"脆弱四国"(2)

Indeed, judged by the criteria¹ of 2013, emerging markets today look far less fragile than they once were. Inflation is lower (only 1.4% in Indonesia) and "exchange-rate valuations have cheapened up considerably²", says Mr Lord. Their current accounts are also "much improved". Indonesia's is now in surplus, as are India's and South Africa's.

事实上，以2013年的标准衡量，如今的新兴市场远没有过去那么脆弱。通货膨胀率较低(印度尼西亚只有1.4%)，“汇率估值也大幅降低”，劳德先生说。它们的经常账户也“大大改善”。印尼、印度和南非现在都处于盈余状态。

These past indicators³ of fragility, however, may not be appropriate for 2021. The pandemic has depressed⁴ demand and curtailed⁵ imports, which has temporarily narrowed current-account deficits⁷ around the world. But the fight against covid-19 has also dramatically widened another kind of deficit⁶: the gap between government spending and revenues. Budget deficits averaged over 10% of GDP across the fragile five last year, according to the IMF. Fiscal⁸ sustainability "has become the key macro area of concern for some emerging markets", Mr Lord says.

然而，过去的这些脆弱性指标可能不适用于2021年。大流行抑制了需求，减少了进口，暂时缩小了世界各地的经常账户赤字。但抗击新冠也大幅扩大了另外一种赤字：政府支出与收入之间的差距。根据国际货币基金组织的数据，去年“脆弱五国”的平均预算赤字超过了GDP的10%。罗德表示，财政可持续性“已成为一些新兴市场担忧的关键宏观领域”。

Bond strategists at HSBC, a bank, published an alternative ranking of vulnerable emerging economies on March 2nd. The least resilient, according to their scorecard, are Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico and South Africa. These economies have all been prone⁹ to current-account deficits in recent years, even if the pandemic has flattered the latest figures. And sizeable government debt in South Africa and especially Brazil leaves them exposed to any jump in interest rates, which are now unusually low.

3月2日，汇丰银行(HSBC)的债券策略师发布了另一份新兴经济体脆弱指数的排名。根据它们的记分卡，最不具弹性的国家是巴西、印度尼西亚、墨西哥和南非。这些经济体近年来都很容易出现经常账户赤字，即便大流行病夸大了最新数据。而南非，尤其是巴西的巨额政府债务，使得它们随时可能受到利率飙升的影响，而目前的利率水平低得异乎寻常。

The fairweather four

晴天四国

These are not the only potential sources of vulnerability. When American yields rise and the dollar strengthens, countries that have borrowed heavily in hard currencies find their debts harder to bear. But the trouble need not end there, according to Valentina Bruno of the American University in Washington, DC, and Hyun Song Shin of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). Any deterioration¹⁰ in the creditworthiness of one borrower in an international lender's portfolio¹¹ can limit the risks it is willing to take on other emerging markets, even those that mostly borrow in their own currency. Boris Hofmann and Taejin Park of the BIS have shown that a rising dollar is a particular danger to emerging markets that have sold a large share of their bonds to foreigners. One reason why Mexico is on HSBC's worry list and Turkey is not is that foreigners hold 46% of Mexico's local-currency government bonds and less than 7% of Turkey's.

这些并不是脆弱性的唯一潜在来源。当美国国债收益率上升，美元走强时，那些大量借入硬通货的国家会发现它们的债务更难承受。但华盛顿美国大学的瓦伦蒂娜·布鲁诺和国际清算银行(BIS)的申铉松认为，麻烦还不止于此。在国际银行的投资组合中，一个借款方的信用状况出现任何恶化，都会限制它愿意承担的其他新兴市场风险，即使是那些主要以本币借贷的市场。国际清算银行的鲍里斯·霍夫曼和泰金·帕克的研究表明，美元不断升值对已将很大一部分债券出售给外国人的新兴市场尤其危险。墨西哥在汇丰银行的担忧名单上而土耳其不在，原因之一是外国人持有墨西哥46%的本币政府债券，而土耳其的不到7%。

These findings create a headache for conscientious¹² finance ministers in emerging markets. If they strive to reform their economies to make them less fragile, they will become more attractive to foreign investors¹³, who will then snap up a greater share of their bonds. But that could make them more vulnerable to a sell-off whenever global financial conditions darken. Indonesia's reforms after the taper¹⁴ tantrum soon won praise from the IMF and attracted foreign buyers back to its bond market. But, Mr Basri admits, these inflows increased the vulnerability of Indonesia's economy to a reversal when global markets wobbled again in 2015. Emerging economies are not powerless victims of the Fed. But they can be hapless victims of their own success.

这些发现让新兴市场尽责的财政部长们感到头疼。如果它们努力改革经济，使其不那么脆弱，它们将对外国投资者更具吸引力，然后外国投资者将抢购它们更多的债券。但这可能使它们在全球金融状况恶化时更容易遭到抛售。在缩减恐慌之后，印尼的改革很快赢得了国际货币基金组织(IMF)的赞扬，并吸引了外国买家重返其债券市场。但巴斯里承认，这些资金流入加剧了印尼经济在2015年全球市场再次动荡时遭遇逆转的脆弱性。新兴经济体并非美联储手无缚鸡之力的受害者，但他们也可能成为自己成功的不幸受害者。

1 criteria   

n.标准

参考例句：

• The main criterion is value for money.主要的标准是钱要用得划算。
• There are strict criteria for inclusion in the competition.参赛的标准很严格。

2 considerably   

adv.极大地；相当大地；在很大程度上

参考例句：

• The economic situation has changed considerably.经济形势已发生了相当大的变化。
• The gap has narrowed considerably.分歧大大缩小了。

3 indicators   

（仪器上显示温度、压力、耗油量等的）指针( indicator的名词复数 )； 指示物； （车辆上的）转弯指示灯； 指示信号

参考例句：

• The economic indicators are better than expected. 经济指标比预期的好。
• It is still difficult to develop indicators for many concepts used in social science. 为社会科学领域的许多概念确立一个指标仍然很难。

4 depressed   

adj.沮丧的，抑郁的，不景气的，萧条的

参考例句：

• When he was depressed,he felt utterly divorced from reality.他心情沮丧时就感到完全脱离了现实。
• His mother was depressed by the sad news.这个坏消息使他的母亲意志消沉。

5 curtailed   

v.截断，缩短( curtail的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• Spending on books has been severely curtailed. 购书开支已被大大削减。
• Their public health programme had to be severely curtailed. 他们的公共卫生计划不得不大大收缩。 来自《简明英汉词典》

6 deficit   

n.亏空，亏损；赤字，逆差

参考例句：

• The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事们报告赤字为250万美元。
• We have a great deficit this year.我们今年有很大亏损。

7 deficits   

n.不足额( deficit的名词复数 )；赤字；亏空；亏损

参考例句：

• The Ministry of Finance consistently overestimated its budget deficits. 财政部一贯高估预算赤字。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Many of the world's farmers are also incurring economic deficits. 世界上许多农民还在遭受经济上的亏损。 来自辞典例句

8 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

9 prone   

adj.(to)易于…的，很可能…的；俯卧的

参考例句：

• Some people are prone to jump to hasty conclusions.有些人往往作出轻率的结论。
• He is prone to lose his temper when people disagree with him.人家一不同意他的意见,他就发脾气。

10 deterioration   

n.退化；恶化；变坏

参考例句：

• Mental and physical deterioration both occur naturally with age. 随着年龄的增长，心智和体力自然衰退。
• The car's bodywork was already showing signs of deterioration. 这辆车的车身已经显示出了劣化迹象。

11 portfolio   

n.公事包；文件夹；大臣及部长职位

参考例句：

• He remembered her because she was carrying a large portfolio.他因为她带着一个大公文包而记住了她。
• He resigned his portfolio.他辞去了大臣职务。

12 conscientious   

adj.审慎正直的，认真的，本着良心的

参考例句：

• He is a conscientious man and knows his job.他很认真负责，也很懂行。
• He is very conscientious in the performance of his duties.他非常认真地履行职责。

13 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

14 taper   

n.小蜡烛，尖细，渐弱；adj.尖细的；v.逐渐变小

参考例句：

• You'd better taper off the amount of time given to rest.你最好逐渐地减少休息时间。
• Pulmonary arteries taper towards periphery.肺动脉向周围逐渐变细。