2021年经济学人 中国做大金融开放蛋糕,不再担心“狼来了”(6)

A stately manner

国家风范

Over the past few months, the strength of currency inflows into China—via both its trade surplus and inbound financial investments—implied that the yuan should have appreciated strongly. The head of a currency desk at a foreign bank in Shanghai says the central bank, acting¹ through proxies², appeared to restrain it. "Whenever the yuan rose to 6.45 (against the dollar), big Chinese banks came in to stop it," he says. Without an open capital account, all prices in China's markets end up skewed. Stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen trade at a premium³ of roughly 30% over stocks in the same companies listed in Hong Kong.

在过去几个月，按照资本流入（通过贸易顺差和对内金融投资）的势头，人民币本应强劲升值。上海一家外资银行的货币交易台负责人表示，央行似乎要抑制升值，它通过代理机构来干预。“每当人民币（兑美元）升到6.45时，大型中资银行就会入场阻止。”他说。没有开放的资本账户，中国市场的所有价格最终都会被扭曲。同一家公司的股票在上海和深圳股市要比在香港股市溢价约30%。

Few dare to go against the state. The China head of a global hedge fund reports that one unusual aspect of the mainland is that securities regulators conduct random⁴ inspections⁵, turning up without warning and demanding answers to probing questions. "They would only do that in New York if you're under arrest," he says.

少有人敢和政府作对。一家全球对冲基金的中国区负责人表示，中国大陆非同寻常的做法之一是证券监管机构会随机检查，毫无预警地到访，刨根问底。"换了在纽约，被逮捕了才会有这种事。他说。

Yet the controls around China's markets can exert a pull of their own. Whereas China trails America in the size of its stock and bond markets, it is, by one measure, ahead in commodity futures⁶. The number of contracts traded last year on its main exchanges (in Dalian, Shanghai and Zhengzhou) was six times higher than on America's cme Group's exchanges. In terms of value they were roughly equivalent.

不过，对中国市场的管控也可能产生一种独有的吸引力。虽然中国的股市和债市规模落后美国，但在一项统计上，它的大宗商品期货市场领先美国。去年大连、上海和郑州这三个主要交易所的交易合约数量是美国芝加哥交易所集团（CME Group）下属交易所的六倍。若按价值计算则大致相当。

It is not just that China has the biggest appetite for commodities, from copper⁷ to iron ore. It is also home to some of the world's most liquid commodity exchanges. Smaller contract sizes make it easier for small companies to get involved in trading. And the very limits that Chinese investors⁸ face on investing offshore⁹ make commodity exchanges attractive. "There may be more contracts on foreign exchanges but not many have truly excellent liquidity¹⁰. In China most contracts are liquid, giving investors lots of opportunities," says Sunny Fang¹¹ of Orient Futures, one of China's biggest futures brokerages.

中国不仅对从铜到铁矿石的大宗商品需求最大，还拥有世界上流动性最强的一些大宗商品交易所。较小的合约规模使小公司更容易参与交易。而中国投资者在对境外投资上所受的限制也让大宗商品交易变得有吸引力。“国外交易所的合约量可能更大，但真正流动性好的不多。在中国，大多数合约的流动性都很好，给投资者带来大量机会。”中国最大的期货经纪公司之一东证期货的方慧玲说。

Commodity futures also show how China's markets shape global markets. Last April the price of oil futures in America collapsed¹² below zero as demand evaporated and storage filled up. In China, though, futures stayed at around $30 a barrel, with investors lapping them up. That attracted shipments to China and helped restore global oil prices to a more normal level.

大宗商品期货也显示了中国市场对全球市场的影响力。去年4月，随着需求蒸发和存储爆满，美国的原油期货价格跌破零。但在中国，随着投资者大量涌入，价格保持在每桶30美元左右。这使得更多原油发运中国，帮助全球油价恢复到较正常的水平。

"The information from Chinese futures is very clear. This is what the world's biggest consumers are paying for commodities," says John Browning of Bands Financial, a Shanghai-based futures brokerage. Whether in China or Texas, oil is oil, and prices should converge¹³.

“中国期货市场发出的信息非常清晰。这就是全球最大的消费国为大宗商品支付的价格。”上海的期货经纪公司磐石金融（Bands Financial）的约翰·勃朗宁（John Browning）表示。不管是在中国还是在美国得州，石油还是石油，价格应该会趋于一致。

The information from China's stock and bond markets is more abstract. It tells you about the health and direction of the economy—no small thing given China's weight in the world. Yet interpreting it is not simple. Portfolio¹⁴ managers at Chinese investment groups have learned Western-style stock analysis but they also understand the Chinese regulatory environment, which can be crucial to performance, says Xu Yicheng of China International Capital Corporation, an investment bank. It is a divide that global firms and investors increasingly think they can, and need to, straddle.

来自中国股市和债市的信息就更抽象了。它透露出中国经济的健康状况和走向鉴于中国在全球经济中的比重这非同小可。但要解读这些信息却不容易。投行中国国际金融公司的徐翌成表示，中国投资机构的投资组合经理已经掌握了西方那一套股市分析法，但他们同时还了解中国的监管环境，而这一点对投资表现可能至关重要。全球企业和投资者越来越觉得自己能够、也需要跨越这道鸿沟。

1 acting   

n.演戏，行为，假装；adj.代理的，临时的，演出用的

参考例句：

• Ignore her,she's just acting.别理她，她只是假装的。
• During the seventies,her acting career was in eclipse.在七十年代，她的表演生涯黯然失色。

2 proxies   

n.代表权( proxy的名词复数 )；（测算用的）代替物；（对代理人的）委托书；（英国国教教区献给主教等的）巡游费

参考例句：

• SOCKS and proxies are unavailable. Try connecting to XX again? socks和代理不可用。尝试重新连接到XX吗？ 来自互联网
• All proxies are still down. Continue with direct connections? 所有的代理仍然有故障。继续直接连接吗？ 来自互联网

3 premium   

n.加付款；赠品；adj.高级的；售价高的

参考例句：

• You have to pay a premium for express delivery.寄快递你得付额外费用。
• Fresh water was at a premium after the reservoir was contaminated.在水库被污染之后，清水便因稀而贵了。

4 random   

adj.随机的；任意的；n.偶然的(或随便的)行动

参考例句：

• The list is arranged in a random order.名单排列不分先后。
• On random inspection the meat was found to be bad.经抽查，发现肉变质了。

5 inspections   

n.检查( inspection的名词复数 )；检验；视察；检阅

参考例句：

• Regular inspections are carried out at the prison. 经常有人来视察这座监狱。
• Government inspections ensure a high degree of uniformity in the standard of service. 政府检查确保了在服务标准方面的高度一致。 来自《简明英汉词典》

6 futures   

n.期货，期货交易

参考例句：

• He continued his operations in cotton futures.他继续进行棉花期货交易。
• Cotton futures are selling at high prices.棉花期货交易的卖价是很高的。

7 copper   

n.铜；铜币；铜器；adj.铜(制)的；(紫)铜色的

参考例句：

• The students are asked to prove the purity of copper.要求学生们检验铜的纯度。
• Copper is a good medium for the conduction of heat and electricity.铜是热和电的良导体。

8 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

9 offshore   

adj.海面的，吹向海面的；adv.向海面

参考例句：

• A big program of oil exploration has begun offshore.一个大规模的石油勘探计划正在近海展开。
• A gentle current carried them slowly offshore.和缓的潮流慢慢地把他们带离了海岸。

10 liquidity   

n.流动性，偿债能力，流动资产

参考例句：

• The bank has progressively increased its liquidity.银行逐渐地增加其流动资产。
• The demand for and the supply of credit is closely linked to changes in liquidity.信用的供求和流动资金的变化有密切关系。

11 fang   

n.尖牙，犬牙

参考例句：

• Look how the bone sticks out of the flesh like a dog's fang.瞧瞧,这根骨头从肉里露出来，象一只犬牙似的。
• The green fairy's fang thrusting between his lips.绿妖精的尖牙从他的嘴唇里龇出来。

12 collapsed   

adj.倒塌的

参考例句：

• Jack collapsed in agony on the floor. 杰克十分痛苦地瘫倒在地板上。
• The roof collapsed under the weight of snow. 房顶在雪的重压下突然坍塌下来。

13 converge   

vi.会合；聚集，集中；(思想、观点等)趋近

参考例句：

• The results converge towards this truth.其结果趋近于这个真理。
• Parallel lines converge at infinity.平行线永不相交。

14 portfolio   

n.公事包；文件夹；大臣及部长职位

参考例句：

• He remembered her because she was carrying a large portfolio.他因为她带着一个大公文包而记住了她。
• He resigned his portfolio.他辞去了大臣职务。